Special Analysis:
Neo-Con End Run
Despite the absence of explicit approval by the White House, such an attack would work to the advantage of the Bush Administration, facing as it now does a hostile Congress with a Democratic majority already talking publicly about ways to wind down American involvement in Iraq. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday intimated that Congress might even go so far as to deny funding for the President's soon-to-be-announced surge of as many as 20,000 more American troops into Iraq, a warning the Right-wing Weekly Standard claims "...makes the House Democrats the party of defeat, the party of surrender." If Israel were to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran, however, congressional Democrats would face the prospect of de-funding American military operations in Iraq at the same time a spiraling conflict would get underway right next door in Iran.
Few doubt that Iran would retaliate, and one of its most likely first actions would be to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil is shipped from the Persian Gulf to the open seas. Iran has mined the waterway before. Furthermore, as described here and elsewhere, Iran has missile batteries lining its coasts, weapons that would make lumbering oil tankers the oil-bearing equivalents of enormous sitting ducks. While Israel's single-strike plan to end Iran's nuclear ambitions might be successful—a single strike was all it needed to destroy Iraq's Osirak nuclear complex in 1980—the rest of the world would be left to deal with a humiliated, enraged Persian state lashing out in some cases indiscriminately, but in other cases quite pointedly at Israel's putative backer, the United States.A single Iranian Sunburn missile fired at a U.S. warship in the Persian Gulf would drag the United States into war with Iran. Keeping U.S. troops stationed in neighboring Iraq from involvement would be next to impossible, especially if Tehran saw opportunity in goading weakened, under-staffed ground forces in provinces close to the Iraqi border with Iran.
With such a spiraling conflagration exploding in the Middle East, the Democrats in Congress might find little support for using the congressional power of the purse to turn U.S. policy in the Middle East away from military solutions. In fact, if anything, even a limited fight the U.S. might have with Iran would require both large infusions of additional troops into the theatre as well as many billions of dollars in new money to pay for those troops, their weaponry and support materiel.
Far from ending the American-Iraqi War, the Democrats just might find themselves having to go along with massive increases in funding for a regional war of which the Iraqi theatre was only the first and perhaps the least bloody phase.
The Dark Wraith invites readers to contemplate the situation into which Congress—indeed, the United States, itself—might very well be led shortly.
Published 1/08/2007 10:31:00 AM
<< 32 Comments Total
Good Morning Dark Wraith:
This would be simply shocking had it already not been one of the things I've been expecting for over a year. Now that his foray as a direct leader and strategist in wartime (ala lincoln, roosevelt and truman) has gone down miserably he's thinking to solve his problems by becoming involved in a proxy war ala eisenhower, kennedy and lbj. this is right along the lines of the "gulf of tonkin" scenario (although they might even exercise a higher degree of realism for the cameras) where u.s. troops are put in harm's way as bait in a larger game. that the isaelis will throw the opening bombs, which by the way, they've never admitted to having officially, is perfectly in keeping with the whole shameless "plausible deniability" angle so dear to these assholes. i can hear it now "no one could have predicted the israelis would nuke iran. . ." like the isaeli military can do fuck all without american supply, support and consent.
the most maddening factor for me is that we are forced to watch people who have been glaringly, and murderously wrong about every single move they have made in this region for the last six years stupidly blunder into one more thing they don't understand. it's like watching the yuppies with their brand new rifles and optics who invade my mountains every year to "cash in" their tags on big game. (yes, i actually heard one of them describe his hunting trip in those exact terms) what can happen is that because they know very little about the place they are trying to hunt, very little about the game they are hunting, and usually not all that much about the weapons they are trying to wield, things can go wrong very quickly. going into iran would be like one of these idiots stomping around my woods who, while stopping to rest, leans against a bee tree, provoking a response from the bees, to escape the bee problems they run into a handy cave, thereby riling the bears or rattlesnakes who had hoped to winter there undisturbed. and yes, that scenario played out exactly like that three years ago by cibicue creek.
this is all bolstered by the nomination of an admiral who has commanded carrier fleets and conducted joint landing ops (he was the naval commander on the marine's diversion landing in '91) to head centcom.
just when i thought that there might be a little hope for sanity and rationality in washington they come up with something even crazier. that an unprovoked nuclear first strike is even being contemplated tells me that most of those people are way overdue for a visit with the shrink to get a med review. i doubt any of the rest of us can see the entities which are talking inside bush's head right now. i can handle someone talking to himself. hell, i can handle somebody answering himself. i draw the fucking line at invisible goddamned friends.
If this comes about I'll get my sunscreen and sunglasses and wait for the ICBMs to arrive.
So far amazingly we have avoided a nuclear war, but first use of even limited yield devices by anyone could be the trigger.
Minstrel Boy is right, these people are insane.
Wasn't (or did) Israel building a petroleum pipeline? Are they immune to the probable retaliation and effects on oil supplies?
Wraith, I gotta believe the Times is smoking something. The notion that Israel would be the first nation since 1945 to use nukes beggars the imagination.
Nobody with an oil pipeline is ever free from risk when it comes to retaliation. It makes such a smelly mess when it's blown open!
Let's see:
Nukular powers that we know of.
USA
Russia
China
Great Britain
France
These are the origional nuke group, who else?
India
Pakistan
North Korea (with a fizzle, but they'll learn)
They were latecomers, but at least they didn't sneak around into this. Now for the sneakier bunch.
Israel
South Africa??
Tiawan??
Brazil???
Who else may have a warhead on their shoulders? This isn't actually new technology and there are so many people who with the proper funding could do this in so many nations.
NPT anyone? No? The New World Order. It seems to me that somebody really screwed up. What do you call a species that is hell-bent on self destruction? Extinct? Fools? Maybe both.
Marvin the Martian, a personal friend of mine would look through his discombobulator or whatever it was called and simply decide to blow up the Earth, after all it got in the way of his observing Venus. A creature from Mars that could not possibly tell the difference between any of us on the Earth. But in my view, we are all here so much the same, and that includes stupid.
If the Three Stoges were still alive, I'd vote for them to be in charge. At least then I could laugh.
Good evening, blackdog.
You've given a fairly exhaustive list of the currently known and probable players in the nuclear arms race. Funny thing is, when I say "nuclear arms race," in my own mind I conjure images of the old days, back when it was the Soviets, the Chinese, and the United States. (Lord, how I miss the great spy movies from the Cold War era!) Now, the atom bomb technology has become a commodity. Nuclear destruction capability is now democratized.
By the way, you did forget one player: Japan. If it gets the serious heebie-jeebies about North Korea, it would take no more than a year-and-a-half to go from scratch to arsenal.
That's when I'd be getting the heebie-jeebies.
The Dark Wraith likes to keep his nightmares confined to the new century, thank you.
Good evening, Ralph, and welcome back.
Here's the part that really worries me. The nukes Israel is supposedly planning to use are ultra-low yield, probably no more than one kiloton. That's about 7% of the yield of the Little Boy used on Hiroshima. In terms of explosive force, these are just above the range of modern high-explosive conventional ordnance, which makes them seem in some peculiar way to be nothing more to tactical war planners than "big bombs" with a particularly attractive ability to compromise hardened facilities, especially below ground.
The word "nuclear" still sets off a whole lot of people, even to this day, but I'm concerned that, if the war makers keep harping on the theme that these are not much more "powerful" than conventional bombs, too many people are going to get used to them as acceptable weapons in the certain circumstances.
Besides, I cannot think of any other nuclear state, known or alleged, that would be the one to open the door to nukes entering that standard inventory of tools in warfare. Israel knows very well that it would not be condemned by the United States because the Congress, as well as the White House, is in its thrall. Nothing as far as long-term foreign relations would be severe, and as far as retaliation by Iran, the neo-cons are betting that a nuclear strike would so destabilize the current regime that any war Iran would prosecute over getting its facilities bombed would be relatively brief and most of the damage would be directed at others, both because of the distance involved from Iran to Israel and because Tehran would be afraid that, if it were to strike back with, say, a Shahab 3b attack on Tel Aviv, Israel would cut loose with nukes in its arsenal that weren't by any means "low yield."
That's a calculus too risky for the world to bear; yet, here we are, just watching and waiting for it to happen, all the while hoping it won't.
The Dark Wraith needs to talk to Minstrel Boy about buying one of those old abandoned underground mines down near where he lives.
Dark Wraith: First I'll say that your analysis of this issue is spot-on. There is just one problem--I can't buy this scenario. Perhaps it is my rational nature that rejects this potential Armageddon-plan, conceived by irrational leaders within the Bush White House and Jerusalem. Any use of nuclear weapons by a nation is going to cause a serious escalation in nuclear war. The real nightmare scenario is a nuclear strike against a nation inside the Middle East--such a strike is going to cause huge economic, political and military consequences that even I can't comprehend, considering the U.S. is already engaged in Middle East wars of Iraq, and Afghanistan. How will Russia and China respond to a nuclear attack against Iran? Will the Arab nations respond to an Israeli nuclear attack by embarking on their own nuclear program--perhaps even buying nukes from Russia and China? What will the economic consequences be, once Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices shoot up above $100 dollars a barrel--you can bet that gas prices will immediatly shoot up a dollar or more per gallon here in the U.S. Iran will certainly go to war against the U.S., and we don't even have the military strength to fight three long-term Middle Eastern wars.
If Israel were to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran, however, congressional Democrats would face the prospect of de-funding American military operations in Iraq at the same time a spiraling conflict would get underway right next door in Iran.
My question on this statement of yours is how will the American people react to an Israeli nuclear strike on Iran? I can guess that the initial reaction to such a strike would be shock and horror. But once that horror wears off, will the American public start looking into the connection of a Bush administration giving approval for such an Israeli nuclear strike? The numerous political polls over the past two months clearly show that the American public want out of the war in Iraq. I seriously wonder if this Iraqi nuke attack, and the Iranian retaliatory strike against American military forces in the Persian Gulf will cause the American people to "rally around the flag," and support this latest Bush war. At least that is what the Bush neocons are hoping for, thus applying pressure to the Democratic Congress to approve even more troop increases and funding into Iraq. In fact, I'd say the opposite would happen, where the American public would express a huge outcry against both this nuke strike, and the Iraq war. We've seen how this administration has miscalculated in this marketing of the war (WMDs, Saddam is a brutal dictator, We must free the Iraqi people from a totalitarian dictatorship), and the complete screw-up of both the occupation of Iraq, and the insurgency currently raging there. The only reason the Bush administration have been getting away with this, for the past six years, has been their linking Iraq with the Global War on Terror. But even that link has gotten stale, considering the American public have been in favor of the Iraq Study Group recommendations on withdrawing from Iraq. I just can't see how an Israeli nuclear strike will allow Bush to incite these nuclear terror fears on the American public of the Big Bad Boogyman nation of Iran.
Unfortunately, we are dealing with Bush neocons here, where rationality has degenerated into a fantasy of a Religious Right "Revelations" rapture, a la the Left Behind series. Which would mean that even my own rational arguments here are thrown out the window by these insane madmen residing in the Bush White House.
Oh God! What a mess!
Good evening, Eric.
Fortunately, you understand that some of my analyses make a clear, if unstated, distinction between the rationality of the temperate and that of the madmen. The scenario I laid out is set in motion by the calculus of those who were never capable of working out the realistic consequences of their schemes. All they ever saw—particularly those in think tanks like the Project for the New American Century—was the reflection in the mirror of their own fantasy of themselves as being big, tough, and strong.
The term "reality check" is utterly absent from their working vocabulary.
Hence, I must lay out the chessboard not of two grandmasters playing their best, but of a world not all that great at the game playing against a reckless fool. Unfortunately, of course, this chess game involves real blood on the table and soon might involve what was, not that long ago, the unthinkable in a desperate move just to call, "Check!"
Personally, I prefer backgammon. Games made for betting money get rid of bad players much more quickly.
The Dark Wraith rolls the dice.
Good evening, SB Gypsy.
And that's another thing. The targetable civilian maritime traffic in that whole region is dominated by those supertankers coming and going. If a couple of those get shot when they're fully loaded, the ensuing environmental catastrophe could be unimaginable.
Nuclear radiation, massive crude oil spills, enormous numbers of refugees on the move.
Whee.
The Dark Wraith thinks Israel and Iran should just kiss and make up before they cause real trouble for the whole neighborhood.
Good evening, Mr. Goat.
Israel has that joint venture going with Turkey, the one I described in my article, "Hydrocarbon Battlefields."
The Israelis have other targetable assets, of course, some more vital, some more vulnerable than others. Their larger cities are the worst of their problems to defend. I have no illusions about the accuracy of Iran's Shahab missiles, but neither do I have a whole lot of faith in Patriot-type interceptors. The truth of the matter is that a Shahab hitting its target would be more a stroke of luck than a result of great targeting hardware and software on the attacking re-entry vehicle; but betting on a shabby missile wildly missing its mark isn't a wager I'd be willing to take.
It's one thing to bet with the odds in poker; it's quite another to bet with the odds in Russian roulette.
The Dark Wraith wonders if anyone has ever noticed that Russian roulette really sucks with pistols that use clips instead of revolvers.
Good evening, Minstrel Boy.
What is it with yuppies and fancy rifles (or Harleys, for that matter), anyway?
I cannot count the number of times I've been shown weaponry that was way out of the league of its owner. And you're right: these guys get all the bells and whistles. One guy just a couple months ago showed me his new "hunting rifle," and I swear that thing had a scope that looked like it was out of a spy movie. The rifle was just beautiful, too. I thought to myself, "Son, I've seen bears that would take that thing away from a guy like you and beat your head with the butt of it."
I didn't say anything like that, of course. I admired it and that made him feel good.
The worst example of men who have toys they shouldn't was down in Florida in my days as a consultant. One man with far, far too much money showed me his gun collection. It was a small room, for God's sake. I know countries that don't have arsenals like that. This fellow, by the way, was a five-foot six, 200-pound guy who sported a bushy moustache and nearly always wore a Polo shirt and Dockers.
Scared the Hell out of me.
There ought to be laws... Oh, that's right: there are laws. They just aren't broad enough to cover stupid.
The Dark Wraith generally avoids anything that goes "BOOM!" louder than his own flatulence anymore.
good morning,Dark Wraith,
The basis for this entire drama is peak oil,and our leaders decision to play it out as "last man standing",as described by several authors.
By understanding that the destruction of the persians as a culture,and as a modern 20th century nation is a given,you might also understand how it will be played out...your analisis is spot on,however,your missing the reason why the persians will be destroyed,and why I feel our nation,as we know it will be destroyed as well.
If you knew,with absolute and utter certainty,that the world was going to flip upside-down,and the whole infrastructure that had provided you,and your class[my base,the elites ,as chucklenuts said]what would be your actions?remember....you are a un-curious,c- student,raceist,homophobe,the worst example of excess in the class system
think
You would do exactly as this bastard, fetal-alcohol
syndrom has done....make some money for your class,screw the country blue,smash international order,break the system,grab all the power you can...then start the endless resourse war to forever change america,doing by executive fiat what you could never do by law.
This is what we are watching happen.And there is nothing at this stage of the game I see stopping it.
But peak oil is the key,and the awareness that has been rideing the tide of growing public awareness is also the key to understanding how to get out...Awareness enought to have a prime propaganda campaign against it and info wars as we speak...
and my inability to dodge this bullet to my lifestyle truely sucks..we need peace for the nation,and for the world to find a way our of the box fossile fuel has put us in,the options are all...unpleasent.
An interesting read from a former Soviet srms control expert courtesy of Truthdig:
http://www.truthdig.com/dig/item/20061211_the_forgotten_threat/
The Dark Wraith generally avoids anything that goes "BOOM!" louder than his own flatulence anymore.
I'm still waiting for PoLT to say something snarky....
--------
Thanks for the link to your old article; that was the pipeline I recalled reading about.
"The Dark Wraith generally avoids anything that goes "BOOM!" louder than his own flatulence anymore."
"I'm still waiting for PoLT to say something snarky...."
Come to think of it Mr. Goat, I am reminded of the story I heard recently about georgie, dickie, jimmie/jeff, and several other of the cutesy-poo neo-cons all giggling and splashing each other in a hot tub. That was until georgie noticed a milky-white, viscous substance floating on the surface of the water and announced in a petulant simpering tone, "All right, which one of you sons of bitches farted?"
Whew, nodding off - I gotta stop coming in here so late. It would be nice to have my comments ahead of everyone else for a change too.
Anyway, here we go. This admin. is insane. I wouldn't be surprised if they are secretly prodding Israel towards creating what they see as their last chance to regain power and to go out with glory. And pardon my rambling... but I am also wondering what to do when this happens because I suspect that soon afterwards they will come for me (and many of you) and put me (us) in those shiny new and refurbished concentration camps.
BTW, I still sometimes wonder how the democrats managed to beat the republicans in such rigged elections... and I know this is "extreme guessing", but I wonder if some of our nations Patriotic covert agents may have become concerned and done some behind the scenes work to stop the republicans from stealing the elections (again). I bring this up (now) because if my election suspicion is correct and any of these patriots are reading this - perhaps they will become concerned about the current escalating situation? ;-)
Anyhoo, great commentary as usual DW. And I would say more but...so tired...eyes are closing, I could fall asleep at any mi
Here's the part that really worries me. The nukes Israel is supposedly planning to use are ultra-low yield, probably no more than one kiloton.
Three things spring to mind:
i, If this happens, the NPT is dead, dead, dead. Every Arab country will pull out en masse.
ii, Pakistan included. You'll see people screaming in the streets to give nukes to Iran so it can defend itself/retaliate.
iii, I wonder how much hypocrisy will be manufactured in order to deal with the US laws against providing military aid to nuclear powers outside the first tier? Oh, the bullshit will flow heavy and thick.
Good morning, Phoenician.
The Non-Proliferation Treaty has become an increasingly thread-bare cover, and it will, indeed, by dead if Israel uses nuclear weapons. These low-yield devices had always been a concern of mine and others as the door-openers to a post-NPT era. They aren't new, of course: years ago, there were nukes that could be fired from shoulder-mounted launchers (can you imagine being one of the guys in the team of two that would have used one of those?!); and enhanced-radiation (i.e., "neutron bomb") devices, including artillery shells, were in the arsenal. Such weapons were frequently touted for their supposed ability to stop large-scale movements of armored divisions. Essentially, in the case of enhanced-radiation bombs, the ordnance would turn the people inside tanks and other armored vehicles into chunks of gristle without wrecking the tanks, themselves. They were also supposed to be useful in neutralizing command-and-control facilities because the low yield would limit physical infrastructure compromise while still baking the personnel inside and turning their electronics into popcorn poppers.
It is interesting to me that these low-yield babies are now being repackaged and resold as "bunker busters." It reminds me of the pharmaceutical industry that rehabilitates old drugs as the cure-alls for other maladies. (Thalidomide comes to mind.)
And as far as someone giving nukes to Iran so it can defend itself, it seems to me that there are a few players out there, none of which I shall mention, that would have all kinds of incentive to allow Iran just a little bit of usable nuke weaponry exclusively to the end of causing mayhem in the Middle East, which would mean keeping the United States busy, busy, busy for years to come.
Again, I won't mention any countries. (No, I won't... Must... resist... the... urge.)
And finally, as far as spreading nuclear technology goes, we can share the responsibility for that old-time missionary work with the British, who worked hand-in-hand with us to get the technology, materials, and fuel to the Jewish State.
To this day, the way Israel dealt with Mordechai Vanunu, the fellow who spilled the beans about Israel's nuclear arsenal, just makes me sick. We sat on our smirking asses acting like that man's misery was none of our business while Israel did its dirty work in capturing, imprisoning, and silencing him.
It seems a little creepy to me that, not long ago, Mr. Vanunu was released from prison.
Yeah, that's a little strange. Maybe it's one of those things where, once you're about to let your lions outside to play, it's no longer worth worrying about the guy in the basement letting the little cats out of the bag.
The Dark Wraith thinks the neighbors are going to be really excited about the new pets prowling the neighborhood.
Good morning, rcg.
Someday, I shall comment a bit more in-depth on the last election, but I want to point out that you and other readers here might recall that, despite my generally quite grim outlook on all things political, I made no bones about my sentiment that the Democrats would win big last November. Recall my Halloween graphics series. I wasn't just whistling through the graveyard.
Now, as far as those detention centers go, I'm getting top bunk. And if any of you guys think towel-snapping in the group shower might be a stress reliever, think again: in my day, I could turn an ordinary towel into the wet cloth equivalent of an automatic weapon; and long before this new craze with "bunker buster" bombs, my towels could excavate a lunar crater on an ass-cheek.
So let's keep everything nice and civil at that detention facility they're going to throw us all in, okay?
The Dark Wraith needs to get these matters clarified in advance.
Good Morning Dark Wraith:
You, of course, are welcome to top bunk. My arthritis doesn't permit me such lofty perches. I will not be going there for violations of speech. I have far more emphatic methods of misbehavior in mind.
Cool.
Dark Wraith:
I just have to include this little blast from the past regarding the comments of your "nucular" neo-con analysis:
There was a turtle by the name of Bert
and Bert the turtle was very alert;
when danger threatened him he never got hurt
he knew just what to do...
He ducked! [inhalation sound]
And covered!
Ducked! [inhalation sound]
And covered! (male) He did what we all must learn to do'
(male) You (female) And you (male) And you (male) And you!'
[bang, inhalation sound] Duck, and cover!'
And even better yet, here's the entire video from YouTube.
Duck, and cover!
They aren't new, of course: years ago, there were nukes that could be fired from shoulder-mounted launchers (can you imagine being one of the guys in the team of two that would have used one of those?!);
This would be the Davy Crockett, conceived as a way for the Army to get into that sweet, sweet nuclear action, and then quietly dropped as an Official Fucking Stupid Idea, yes?
And as far as someone giving nukes to Iran so it can defend itself, it seems to me that there are a few players out there, none of which I shall mention, that would have all kinds of incentive to allow Iran just a little bit of usable nuke weaponry exclusively to the end of causing mayhem in the Middle East, which would mean keeping the United States busy, busy, busy for years to come.
Yes, but those two are your friends these days, surely? Seeing into souls and all that...
Good afternoon, Phoenician.
Speaking for myself as an old, Cold War era warrior who neither could change nor particularly wants to, those two countries—and here I am speaking from a loving heart of friendship—can kiss my old, narrow backside and burn in Hell for all Eternity.
And their exports suck, too.
The Dark Wraith got a little intemperate, there, didn't he?
This post has been removed by the author.
Lemme try again.
I recommend the article
wherein the author maintains that yes, global warming is a serious problem, but it's merely the prelude to large numbers of us freezing to death.
Good Evening Dark Wraith:
My favorite megadisaster theory for a long time has always been the Herbert Allen Boardman (HAB) theory about the shifting polar ice caps. He postulates that several times in earth's history the poles have shifted, suddenly. What happens is that one pole's ice cap and weight gets far heavier than the other. Earth, being essentially a gyro then compensates the wobble by shifting the axis and putting the heavy part on the equator. He suggests that during one period the Sudan was a north pole and Siberia was tropical. Some of the things this explains are the quick frozen elephant ancestors that keep popping out of the glaciers up there. By his reckoning we are almost 25,000 years overdue for this event. In geological time that's the equivelant of walking into the theatre during the previews of coming attractions.
aside to PLT: it also makes a lot more sense than channeling.
Hey, Wraith, thanks for your comments. I stand by my belief that Israel would not be the first to violate the 60-year informal nuclear moratorium, as this is the very heavy straw that would break the camel's back in terms of the US-Israel "special relationship." However, mileage varies.
Second, it's interesting to speculate on what would be the result of Iran using antiship missiles against tankers. Environmental disaster? Forsan, non forsan. Iraq tried that back in the 80s, using aircraft-launched Exocet antiship missiles against a couple of hundred tankers, scoring several dozen hits. Strangely, their aircraft always seemed to attack from abeam, with the result that the Exocet's radar seekers locked onto the "center of mass" and the resulting hits in the crude oil bunkers of those tankers seemed to do relatively little damage. Missile warheads are generally small; maybe someone can give us a threat update.
Is anyone keeping track of the stealthy nuclear submarines that the French sold to Pakistan? If they were to slip into the Red Sea and then the Gulf of Aquaba, their missiles could destroy Israel within minutes of launch. The destruction could be direct blast damage to Tel Aviv, Haifa, and/or Jerusalem or EMPulse frying ALL their civilian and military electronic gear.
Good morning, Anonymous.
Your point is good. We do have that situation under control, though: the stealth technology of those subs is not a match for our ability to detect them. (At least we hope the stealth technology isn't better than we think it is.)
Were one of those subs to prowl within striking range, we would have all kinds of ships and anti-sub planes get in its way very quickly and challenge it. Were the commander of the vessel foolish enough to ignore the warnings to turn around, we would have what is diplomatically known as an "incident." Although the Pakistanis might go so far as to probe our ability to catch one of those subs (the Soviets played that game all through the Cold War, testing our air and sea detection abilities), it is highly unlikely that the Pakistanis would press the issue were it about to lead to a warning shot or something somewhat worse. (It is very unlikely that our side would "sink" the sub right away, although I'm not so sure the Israelis, if they caught the sub first, would be so generous.)
The Pakistanis would not press the issue if one of their subs were challenged, and the reason is quite simple: they're no match for us in a sea combat environment, and they would lose their sub. That would be a costly bit of foolishness: losing even one of those beauties the Pakistanis just got would be a gift to the folks in India, who are of far more immediate and enduring concern to the Pakistanis.
So, while I most certainly do not discount Pakistan probing around, I also don't think they'd get too far.
And besides, even if some country were to level Tel Aviv with a nuke (which is very unlikely for all kinds of reasons), Israel would start picking capitols around the region on the Most Likely To Have Done It list, and start laying waste. Pakistan would then be turned into rubble, and India would just sit back and say, "Oooo, that must have hurt!"
The Dark Wraith doesn't think the Pakistanis are quite stupid enough to volunteer for nuclear paybacks.