Special Blog Post: Upon Returning

An apology is in order. Late last week, your host here at The Dark Wraith Forums vanished without so much as a fond farewell.

I have returned now. Several projects waylayed me. The death last week of one of my remaining three brothers demanded that I travel to another state and deliver a eulogy along with expressed regret to his wife and 13-year-old son. I was about the same age when my father passed from this Earth on a late Sunday afternoon in April many years ago. My brother, like our father before us, did not care to live life using a quiet voice: his was an angry youth and a long road to good wisdom and fair peace with himself and his world. In his small way, he made that world better by rattling its common people from time to time and by offering it the grace of his remarkable intelligence all the time. It was years before I knew much at all about the remarkable life my father had lived, and I wanted to ensure that my brother's boy knew something about his father in those years when he stood tall, acted fiercely, and reached way beyond himself only to fail over and over again just so he could only once in a great while succeed.

On that late Sunday afternoon so many years ago, as my father lay in his final moments, all of his relatives stood around him. He asked that he be turned to the window so he could see the mighty pine tree that towered beside it. For me, it was time to leave that terribly crowded room: what would surely soon be one of those awful, gaping holes I felt upon someone's death would not be outside, especially if I sat near that tree where no one could see me. The town bell tolled 6:00 p.m., and the Dutchman's mortal life ended. It was not too long before I heard my mother walking by. She didn't see me; she had to go to the clearing where she could see the sun that was, as always, surrendering its fight to keep the day lit. There, she could stand for a while in the silence of the Sunday afternoon. With a cracking, quiet voice, she said his name to the sunset, and then she turned and went back into the house to join the grim ceremony of grief.

I still think about that mighty pine tree. It fell that Summer, destroyed by a lightning strike and cut down shortly thereafter. Once fallen, it was no longer—as it had been for as long as I could remember—foreshortened against the sky above. Instead, as it lay on the ground, I could see its entire length, its life from beginning to end. Scars and flaws were everywhere, but the tree was no less magnificent for them. It was so young and frail near the top: the lightning was able to wreck it unmercifully there; but at its base, it was massive, powerful, and full of such strength.

And as much as it had nurtured life and given comfort to the living and the dying in the years that it had stood, the tree offered its most as it lay in state, where it could patiently await the wind, the rain, and the fires to scatter it to the earth and sky and thereby send its legacy onward.



The Dark Wraith will resume posting tomorrow.

Special Graphic Post: The Movie of the Year

The Dark Wraith herewith grants permission to republish this graphic at full or reduced scale.

The Written Peace: Open Forum of August 11, 2006

While your host is striving to put some logical flow into a new installment of Pulp Economics here at The Dark Wraith Forums, let us take some time to have an open thread, which seems sorely needed considering the wide-ranging topical content of the last several threads. For those of you needing a recap, we went all the way from nuclear annihilation and "twilight scenarios" to the differences between analytic and synthetic languages. Along the way, we discussed the economics concept of price elasticity of demand, which will be the subject of the aforementioned next article here. Somehow, we also got into a brief discussion about alien civilizations and hegemony beyond the Earth. Adding further to the diversity of matters under consideration, I was compelled to create a nice new graphic for the ladies at BlondeSense, although I have become a little concerned about the prospect that one of those folks will actually post that thing, thereby making me look like some kind of very troubled missile afficionado. Oh, yes: we also touched upon how the Norman French introduced us to distinguishing between an animal and the meat of that animal: so, for example, we need not be so crude as to eat "cow" (as the Anglo-Saxons would have), but instead we eat "beef" (as proper, civilized people should); and we need never dine on the lowly, swine-oriented "pig," but instead we chew its flesh, which we call "pork."

I am now thoroughly convinced that this place is the intellectual, cyberspace equivalent of the bar in the old television series Cheers.

Moving along, I want to welcome some good people. Dad the Realist has shown up on occasion, and his input is thoroughly worthy of this place, as is the recent commentary by Dianna of Swatch It, Imoral Majority of the blog Immoral Majority, and Don. I honestly cannot remember whether or not I had ever before formally welcomed Mark of the blog called GASH, but I shall risk redundancy by doing so here, as I shall for Minstrel Boy of Harp and Sword. And always, I thank those who have been here since forever, both the active commenters and those who quietly pass through on a regular basis.

A few minor matters are on the agenda. First, I have added some new computer desktop wallpapers to the selection offered in the sidebar section, Dark Wraith Themes. All of the wallpapers are from posts here at The Dark Wraith Forums, although you'll be seeing them at full color and size, especially if you choose a 1600×1200 version. In several cases, the graphics are slightly different from what you would have seen posted in an article or as a link from an article: post-publication enhancements—final touches and subtle additions, mainly—are not particularly obvious except maybe in the graphic "Dark Century." Eventually, those graphics and several others will be offered as posters, but that's down the road a little ways.

Within the next few days, a Special Blog Post might be published here to make an announcement of relatively minor importance for the time being, but perhaps of somewhat greater importance later on.

Finally, as far as exciting and boring blog notices are concerned, the advertisements that have become rather fossilized mainstays down in the sidebar will begin to vanish over the next couple of weeks. Although I had been planning to do that, a number of the advertisers have been kind enough to get me motivated to drop them sooner than I had planned. Up until recently the overriding issue that had been bothering me was that the advertisers get free company and product exposure here for nothing more than offering me the faint hope of commissions. Now, it's gotten serious: most of the advertisers are forcing their "affiliates" to go to javascript snippets rather than linked graphics. Aside from the fact that javascripts on a site slow down the load time—and I do enough javascripts of my own here to slow the load time down to a glacial crawl, thank you very much—the major problem is that I lose control not just of content the advertisers want to push through, but I also lose control of exactly what those advertisers are doing to site visitors and those who click through on the ads. Up until now, I could simply cut out things like "Web bugs" and other controversial code from the ads I posted; but with javascripts that are being called from the advertisers' servers, I can't do that. That means retaining or dropping many of the advertisers has moved from a simple business decision to a risk management exercise. Risk managers make really good salaries; so, since the advertisers refuse to pay attractive flat fees, I must turn the matter back into a simple business decision, and the decision on that basis is quite easy to make.

All is not lost, though. In a couple of weeks, I shall offer ad space for classified advertisements, here. That's right: you can sell stuff right here at The Dark Wraith Forums. Tasteful stuff, mind you. I shall not countenance any ads for people selling their organs or the entire bodies, for example. Neither will I suffer ads for "services" of an altogether tawdry, prurient, or otherwise unappetizing type. Sheesh: I shouldn't have to even point that out; but somehow, I know I'll regret it if I don't.

Enough of that.

Earlier today, I slipped back over to one of my ancient haunts, the Medieval History Forum at About.com, so I could find the massive thread—now long dead—I created there. It was called "A Once and Future Language," and it was a behemoth, the longest one ever sustained in that forum if I'm not mistaken. I was looking for a particular post I published, but going through all 600+ comments of my thread left me empty-handed. Then I realized that I must have put the post in question on another thread there. As I started expanding my search, I realized that I had published comments on probably several dozen threads in the forum. I finally found the post, and I thought I'd share it with you. The background of it has to do with a running discussion that was going on about an ancient poem/song called "Green Grow the Rushes—O," upon which I commented at length and in great detail. However, in the interest of offering spice to what some might have considered a rather boring track the discussion was taking, I decided to offer some versions of a poem by the same name written by Robert Burns in the 18th Century. What makes the Burns poem fascinating is that there are two versions, one most definitely by Burns and the other quite possibly by him. Below, I republish the post in its entirety, which I was addressing to the forum member who called herself Lady Hawke.

---

Good evening, Lady Hawke.

Well, I suppose I opened the door by mentioning something naughty and almost on-topic that I might post. The subject of this thread is a song entitled Green Grow the Rushes—O, which is almost the same as a poem/song attributed to the 18th Century poet, Robert Burns. His poem is entitled Green Grow the Rashes—O or Green Grow the Rushes—O, but it is considerably different from the subject of this thread. What makes this poem interesting (and perhaps a little closer to being on topic) is that two very different versions of this poem exist: the published version and an earlier, draft version represented by a friend of Burns as a draft that Burns sent him. The draft version quickly passed into folk tradition, and variations on it have been made and sung ever since, although this version cannot be directly attributed to Burns other than on the word of this supposed friend.

Before we proceed, I must warn you all that the draft version is just about as obscene as literature can get in any era. If pornographic trash is offensive to you, you might want to skip the second version. Even if you do read it, you might want to consider bathing afterward.

I shall post these two versions; then I shall return in a while with some scholarly commentary on the vulgarity of it all. I figure that this chain of posts will not only kill this thread, it might even cause it to burst into red flames and disappear into oblivion.

Without further ado, we first have the published, nice version.

Green grow the rashes, O;
Green grow the rashes, O;
The sweetest hours that e'er I spend,
Are spent amang the lasses, O.

There's nought but care on ev'ry han',
In ev'ry hour that passes, O:
What signifies the life o' man,
An' 'twere na for the lasses, O
Green grow the rashes, O;
Green grow the rashes, O;
The sweetest hours that e'er I spend,
Are spent amang the lasses, O.

The warly race may riches chase,
An' riches still may fly them, O;
An' tho' at last they catch them fast,
Their hearts can ne'er enjoy them, O.
Green grow the rashes, O;
Green grow the rashes, O;
The sweetest hours that e'er I spend,
Are spent amang the lasses, O.

But gie me a canny hour at e'en,
My arms about my Dearie, O;
An' warly cares, an' warly men,
May a' gae tapsalteerie, O!
Green grow the rashes, O;
Green grow the rashes, O;
The sweetest hours that e'er I spend,
Are spent amang the lasses, O.

For you sae douse, ye sneer at this,
Ye're nought but senseless asses, O:
The wisest Man the warl' saw,
He dearly lov'd the lasses, O.
Green grow the rashes, O;
Green grow the rashes, O;
The sweetest hours that e'er I spend,
Are spent amang the lasses, O.

Auld Nature swears, the lovely Dears
Her nob!est work she classes, O:
Her prentice han' she try'd on man,
An' then she made the lasses, O.
Green grow the rashes, O;
Green grow the rashes, O;
The sweetest hours that e'er I spend,
Are spent amang the lasses, O.


Nice, isn't it? Now, let us have a look at the draft version. (Note that this is your last warning that you might want to turn back.)

O wat ye ought o' fisher Meg,
And how she trow'd the webster, O,
She loot me see her carrot cunt,
And sell'd it for a labster, O.
Green graw the rashes, O,
Green grow the rashes, O,
The lassies they hae wimble-bores,
The widows they hae gashes, O.

Mistress Mary cow'd her thing,
Because she wad be gentle, O,
And span the fleece upon a rock,
To waft a Highland mantle, O.
Green graw the rashes, O,
Green grow the rashes, O,
The lassies they hae wimble-bores,
The widows they hae gashes, O.

An' heard ye o' the coat o' arms
The Lyon brought our lady, O,
The crest was; couchant; sable cunt.
The motto - "ready, ready," O.
Green graw the rashes, O,
Green grow the rashes, O,
The lassies they hae wimble-bores,
The widows they hae gashes, O.

An' ken ye Leezie Lundie, O.
The godly Leezie Lundie, O,
She mounts like reek thro' a' the week,
But finger fucks on Sunday, O.
Green graw the rashes, O,
Green grow the rashes, O,
The lassies they hae wimble-bores,
The widows they hae gashes, O.

---

That got something of a rouse out of the crowd. For me, the poetry of that by-gone era illustrates just how far our society—nay, our very civilization—has declined from that glad time of the 18th Century when we were far more godly and when our the inspirational leaders of society were veritable beacons of piety of heart and purity of thought.

The Dark Wraith sheds a tear for the innocence we have lost in these modern times.


Speak your peace. Anything and everything is topical in an open forum here. We'll open some bags of chips to eat during the poetry reading that begins later. I ask that no one throw chips at the poets, though: for one thing, poets don't like chips being thrown at them; and for another thing, since they were on sale, I got the kind called "kettle chips," which are really crunchy. They make a mess on the floor, and when people step on them, pieces tend to fly like shrapnel. I'll make some espresso later, too, just in case the poetry starts getting on the slow side.



The Dark Wraith turns down the house lights and brings out some candles to enhance the literary mood.

Special Analysis: Hydrocarbon Battlefields

The Middle East lurches with no respite from one crisis of violence to the next in these opening years of the 21st Century. In 2002, a Western superpower attacked oil-rich Iraq, a country so debilitated by years of international sanctions that it had no substantive ability to repel the onslaught. Just prior to that invasion, the same superpower invaded Afghanistan, a nation strategically situated between oil reserves to the East and energy-hungry nations of the Western world. If not as dramatically violent, both China and Russia have moved aggressively to seal agreements with and diminish resistance by factions within nearby countries known to have large oil reserves, perhaps the most important among them being the Republic of Kazakhstan, where oil reserves girding and under the Caspian Sea represent perhaps one-and-a-half percent of all proven oil reserves in the world. Years in exploration, and at a staggering cost because of the particularly complex geology of the area, Kazakhstan is emerging as a target of commercial attention and investment by Western and Far Eastern companies and governments.

The graphic below depicts the the Middle East and the eastern part of Eurasia.


The landform of eastern Eurasia varies incredibly: from cold, Arctic tundra to soaring mountains to hot, dry deserts, the scope of natural environments is simply breathtaking in its diversity. The political, social, and economic landscapes of this region of the world are no less diverse: from repressive Communist regimes to genuine democracies, and from extraordinary wealth to grinding poverty, the governments and peoples capture every manner of experiment in human social and political organization.

Vast, powerful nations abut small, weak countries, and always there exists the potential for armed conflict arising from competition for land, natural resources, and socio-political dominance. The Western Hemisphere, putatively led by the United States, strives to hold sway in the region, principally to ensure for its citizens security in both borders and in access to the wealth of nations in the Middle East and Asia; and while the resources to be had are many, access to and control of the hydrocarbon reserves are worth far more than their weight in money and blood. China, Russia, and other nations of the Orient, Europe, and the Middle East are every bit as willing as the United States to do what is necessary to secure those hydrocarbons for their own purposes.

The commercial competition for oil and natural gas from Eastern Europe, Greater Asia, and Asia Minor is fierce. With the economies of China and other countries in the Far East experiencing high current and projected growth rates, demand for fossil fuels to power these industrial boom economies is rising steeply, with energy needs of both manufacturers and emerging, vast middle classes outstripping local resources, which had been geared in the past to slow industrial growth and modest requirements by citizens. Largely because of the need to form a commercial bloc to compete with the West in general and the United States in particular, the Shanghai Coöperation Organisation (SCO) was formed in June of 2001: its members are China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Quoting from the SCO General Information Webpage, the stated purposes of the SCO are as follows:

"[S]trengthening mutual trust and good-neighborly relations among member states; promoting their effective cooperation in political affairs, economy and trade, scientific-technical, cultural, and educational spheres as well as in energy, transportation, tourism, and environment protection fields; joint safeguarding and presenting regional peace, security and stability; striving towards creation of democratic, just, reasonable new international political and economic order."

Efforts by the organization to further define its non-threatening nature are distilled to the assurance that, "...SCO is not a closed block and is not directed against any states and regions." Interesting in this regard is that the SCO has granted observer status to Iran, India, Mongolia, and Pakistan, with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad making clear that Tehran will seek full membership; but the SCO recently rejected the application for observer status of the United States.

The altogether reasonable purposes stated officially by the SCO are rather less reassuring when considered in light of statements made by the advocates of the consortium. Azer Mursaliev, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Kommersant, explains the SCO as follows: "Combined powers of countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, both in military and economic area, allow them to open an independent stock exchange and trade oil and gas not in US dollars, but in any other currency, including Russian Rubles."

The sentiments offered above by Mr. Mursaliev offer proof positive to some that the long-standing denomination of oil contracts in American dollars is coming to an end. This is a particularly attractive doomsday scenario for the U.S. when considered in the context of Tehran's declared interest in full member status in SCO and its much publicized claim that it is planning to open an oil bourse that would use euros rather than greenbacks. Such a threat to the dominance of the petrodollar has led some to believe the United States would use the pretext of Iran's controversial nuclear power development program to attack the Persian nation and thereby cripple its nuclear ambitions and end its financial schemes. However, as was predicted here at The Dark Wraith Forums, the planned opening on March 20, 2006, of this new oil bourse did not happen and probably will not for months if not years, despite continuing efforts by Iran and some Western media outlets to represent the opening as imminent.

Without necessarily resulting to rhetoric about the SCO being an "OPEC with bombs," the organization is clearly and with good reason concerned about security issues, strategically primary among them being commercial control of resources—specifically (although not exclusively), recoverable hydrocarbon reserves. While China is now and will continue to be a producer of fossil fuels, its growing economy will demand more and more oil and natural gas to power its industrial base. Current projections place China's demand for oil at five million barrels per day by 2020.

The graphic at left zooms in on the region around the Caspian Sea, bordered from the Northwest to the East by Kazakhstan and on the West by Russia and Azerbaijan. The areas in orange represent general fields of known hydrocarbon reserves. Even though these reservoirs represent no more than about 1½ percent of the world's total known reserves, they are nonetheless important for several reasons. First, the fields are relatively new, meaning they are still on the upswing in terms of realized yields; second, and crucially important, the fields are at a crossroads between the East and the West, offering opportunities for both Asian and European customers. The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline from the Caspian fields into China could alone deliver one million barrels per day at full capacity, meaning Kazakhstan has the potential to provide fully 20 percent of China's projected demand for oil in 2020. At the same time, even though Kazakhstan belongs to the SCO along with China, the West is an attractive market, as well. Furthermore, Russia has presented significant difficulties in Kazakhstan's dealings toward the East, attempting as it has to tighten its grip on hydrocarbons leaving the area by, among other things, imposing a "tax" it claims must be paid by the operators of the fields and pipelines.

The graphic below lays in some of the Eurasian pipelines in existence, under construction, or in some stage of planning.


As daunting as the tangle of pipelines may appear, others either exist or will come into existence within the next ten years. Furthermore, while some of the pipelines represent crude products moving to refineries and ports, other pipelines represent conduits for products being delivered to final-use customers: for example, the pipeline that appears to go through the middle of Iran from roughly South to North will deliver natural gas from Kargh Island up to pipelines running both East and West to end users in Asia. On the other hand, the pipelines on the northern arc of the Caspian Sea are for transporting crude extracted from the oil fields there to intermediaries in both Asia and Europe.

The tangle of pipelines around the Caspian renders evidence of the strategic importance of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan; and even though both are members of the SCO, their own interests will to a great extent override any possibility of unwavering loyalty to their fellow members of that bloc. Specific to that point is the map at right, which depicts the area around and to the West and South of the Caspian Sea, with only one pipeline represented, the so-called Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, so named for the three major cities close to which it passes on its way from Azerbaijan clear to the Mediterranean. (Note that the pipeline shown east of the Azeri shore of the Caspian Sea is not part of the BTC pipeline but uptakes extracted Kazakh hydrocarbons moving west.) Its rather twisted path ensures, first, that it passes through only Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, and second, that it swings around regions of those three countries where rebels and other restive groups could interfere with the operations.

Financing of the BTC pipeline comprises a 30 percent equity contribution by the companies involved, with the remaining 70 percent of project cost provided through lending by the International Finance Corporation, which is the division of the World Bank that lends to private companies. The distribution of ownership interests in the BTC pipeline is graphically presented at left. While some of the names may be familiar to Americans, others likely are not. BP is, of course, British Petroleum, a London-based corporation with world-wide operations principally having to do with energy-related products and services. ExxonMobil is also a familiar name: it is U.S.-based and stands as the largest integrated hydrocarbon products company in the world. UNOCAL is an American, wholly-owned subsidiary of Chevron Corporation, having been acquired in 2005 by Chevron to stave off an undesired takeover by a Chinese oil company. DeltaHess is a joint venture between the Saudi oil company Delta Oil and the American oil company Hess Corporation. Devon Energy Corporation is based in Oklahoma City and has oil and gas operations in North and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Itochu is a diversified Japanese company with subsidiary interests in oil and gas exploration and exploitation. TPAO is the Turkish Petroleum Corp. (Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi), a government corporation with oil and gas operations in Egypt, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iraq. STATOIL is a Norwegian-based, integrated oil and gas company involved in exploration and exploitation operations along the coastal shelf of Norway, as well as in countries across the globe. LUKOIL Oil Company is a privately owned, Russian oil and gas company and is the largest company in its industry in Russia. SOCAR is the state-owned oil and gas company of Azerbaijan.

While having no material impact on either the construction or the operation of the pipeline, criticisms of the project have been wide-ranging. Environmental concerns have been expressed regarding the potential for oil spills in ecologically sensitive areas along the route, particularly in regions like northern Turkey that are prone to large earthquakes. Claims about disruptions of local economies are persistent: for example, with three supertankers docking every day at the port outlet at Ceyhan, Turkey, local commercial fishing is said to have been severely disrupted. And allegations have been made of human and civil rights abuses that include uncompensated confiscations of land and local men being more or less forced to work on the line at inadequate wages. Little has been done to address any of the potential and actual adverse impacts of the BTC pipeline; and as the matter now stands, complaints will remain nothing more than minor background noise as BTC becomes an important link between oil fields in Kazakhstan and energy-hungry markets in Europe and the United States.

Ceyhan, Turkey, is close to the massive Incirlik Air Base, arguably the nexus of U.S. airborne military operations for all of Asia Minor and the Middle East. Warplanes from Incirlik provide ample security for the port its supertanker traffic.

The final graphic, presented at left, appears at first glance to be the same as the BTC pipeline route graphic presented earlier in this article. Careful inspection may be needed to see the addition: it can be found as a pale extension of the BTC pipeline from its outlet at the southern end of Turkey, down the eastern coastal waters of the Mediterranean, and ending in Israel. Officially announced in May of this year, the project—which will be financed by "foreign economic backing"—actually comprises four underwater pipelines that will carry fresh water, electricity, natural gas, and oil from Asia Minor to Israel, which will resell some of the oil, thereby not only securing for Israel vital resources it needs, but also putting the Jewish State on the world map as a trader in the fossil fuels so important to the growing, energy-hungry nations of the Far East, which is the market into which Israel plans to sell its oil surplus.

Astute readers of the map above will note that this pipeline complex runs down the entire Mediterranean coast not only of Lebanon, but also of Syria. As of the publication date of this article, Israel is striving to eliminate the threat posed by the relatively well-armed Lebanese militant political faction Hizballah. In view of the proposed pipeline, that threat has considerably less to do with the rockets Hizballah has been aiming at northern Israel in recent times than with the possibility that the militants could disrupt the construction and integrity of the underwater pipeline bundle. Moreover, a hostile government in Damascus arguably poses a far greater risk to the security of the pipelines than any threat presented by a menace like Hizballah, indicating that Israel must go far beyond its current campaign of destroying or otherwise crippling Hizballah. Strategically, far more important is removing the danger that Syria could disrupt construction and/or operation of the pipeline bundle. Not dealing with Syria soon would quite likely disabuse Israel's "foreign economic backing" of any interest in financing a project constructed in such a potentially hostile region of the world.


The Dark Wraith will allow readers now equipped with the information from this article to make their own predictions about the direction current Israeli military operations will take in the days and months ahead.