Monday, July 31, 2006

Special Analysis:
Casualty Allocation in Modern Warfare

The deaths of dozens of civilians in Qana, Lebanon, on July 30, 2006, underscores the complications facing modern military planners and field commanders in prosecuting wars against entrenched opposition forces. To date, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has relied heavily upon a combination of artillery and aerial bombardments of Lebanon to weaken Hizballah, principally to the purpose in the latter, air campaign of degrading infrastructure, destroying bunkers, killing enemy soldiers, and demoralizing remaining enemy combatants. The artillery campaign—comprising as it does mechanized cannon (tanks and other mobile artillery pieces), rockets, and other assets—destroys both infrastructure and tactical targets, including mobile missile launchers being used by Hizballah fighters to fire rockets into Israel.

The reliance upon stand-off military assets, particularly fighter jets and bombers, has been criticized in a number of quarters: indeed, some argue that the United States and its Coälition partners believed that the initial "Shock and Awe" campaign and subsequent air and missile attacks on Baghdad and other parts of Iraq in the Spring of 2002 would substantially, if not utterly, remove Iraqi resistance to the subsequent ground invasion. But while the Coälition might earnestly have believed the air campaign would conclusively and swiftly resolve the war, it is certainly the case that aerial bombardment by bombs, rockets, and missiles did not do nearly as much as expected to bring combat to a swift end. Among the ranks of modern war planners and advocates—particularly those lacking actual experience in war—there does seem to exist a belief that air power can not only define the architecture of dominance in military campaigns, but also be decisive in wars, themselves. The IDF has in its current campaign against the Lebanese Hizballah shown considerable subscription to this belief, having already flown hundreds of sorties in just the few weeks its attack on Lebanon has been underway, while at the same time fielding only token, if highly publicized, infantry forays into Lebanese territory.

In a ground force projection begun on July 25, 2006, IDF soldiers quickly encountered resistance from Hizballah fighters whose ferocity seemed to take Israeli soldiers by surprise. The ensuing skirmishes clearly established why the air campaign had been and remained far preferable, at least in the short run: nine IDF soldiers were killed in a relatively short period of time during combat engagements in southern Lebanon. In the broad history of warfare, such a death toll is minimal and insignificant, but it comes as a shock nonetheless to both troops and the public at large since neither group is used to death in combat at any level, despite having national experience with far higher tolls in earlier times and previous wars. For the public especially in recent times in modern societies, months or a rapid series of high death rate encounters are required for general concensus to accept death toll numbers above one or two in a given day or a given encounter.

At left is a picture of a GBU-28A/B in flight: the "GBU" stands for "Guided Bomb Unit," otherwise informally and generically referred to as a "bunker buster." The GBU-28 was developed for and used in Desert Storm and is now being provided by the United States to the IDF, which is using this weapon in Lebanon to destroy what it describes as some of the 600 or so hardened, underground munitions and personnel bunkers under the control of Hizballah forces. The bomb is mounted under the wing of an F-15I "Eagle," depicted in the first graphic near the top of this article. (The Israelis call the F-15I "Thunder," and they gave the earlier, F-15C/D version the rather ominous—or perhaps insensitive—name "Buzzard.") Because a GBU carries a massive explosives package, in earlier versions its delivery jet would often have to make a critical upward maneuver, releasing the weapon in a lofting trajectory that allowed it to come more or less straight down on its target, this being necessary so the device did not have to navigate around intervening buildings and other structures on its way to the target, which might be underneath a building or otherwise buried and hardened. In the GBU-28, a Paveway III GPS/INS guidance package (which usually removes the need for the lofted release) takes the bomb on the final leg to its target, where its payload of 4,500 to 5,000 pounds of explosives detonates on top of the underground bunker, breaching overlying earth, concrete, and other protective materials.Collateral building damage in BeirutThe explosion of the bomb then kills personnel in the bunker and sets off or otherwise destroys any munitions stored there. The force of the explosion is sufficient to destroy any building atop the bunker. Surrounding buildings for dozens of yards left standing around the target are structurally compromised both at the level of their foundations and in their load-bearing walls, making the effect of a GBU-28 detonation particularly destructive in urban and suburban environments. The graphic at right above shows buildings that were near a destroyed target in Beirut.

Effective, mission-specific alternatives to these bunker busters are few and uniformly problematic, as are alternatives to other air-to-surface rockets, bombs, and missiles and surface-to-surface, large-calibre ordnance. In fact, the principal and general alternatives reduce in reality to only one: ground forces. This would include infantry on foot and in armored vehicles penetrating urban and peri-urban environments, fighting house-to-house, building-to-building, degrading enemy assets and killing enemy soldiers during the advance and securitization operations. In the words of Israeli Knesset member and Minister of Justice Haim Ramon, "What we should do in southern Lebanon is employ huge firepower before a ground force goes in... Our great advantage vis-a-vis Hizbollah is our firepower, not in face-to-face combat."

As the Israeli Justice Minister's statement demonstrates, the disadvantages of 'face-to-face combat' are rather more obvious than the advantages. Infantry fighting in close quarters entails a very high probability of significant casualty rates among troops; stand-off weapons, on the other hand, by their nature keep troops far away from ground fire and booby-traps. Furthermore, stand-off weapons will—provided they actually hit their intended targets—degrade enemy assets much more rapidly than infantry and mechanized infantry possibly could, even when the airborne ordnance does not live up to the "precision" frequently used to describe its accuracy. Slogging forward across a hostile country takes days, and target-rich environments can be few and far between along the way. Aerial bombarment from jets and artillery projects destructive force miles and scores of miles forward, thereby offering considerably greater access to widely dispersed targets of interest. For ground troops, after moving forward through sparse encounters on the way to a city of strategic interest, the drop into urban and peri-urban combat environments causes a sudden shift of the target/threat environment from one relatively thin to something so rich and multi-faceted that it can quickly overwhelm even the most trained infantry and mechanized units, leaving soldiers and other war assets vulnerable to everything from snipers to booby-traps to ambushes.

And these are just the beginnings of the problems for the early phases of urban combat environment engagement, even before genuine occupation forces can arrive and establish some degree of order, tense and violent as such might be. Urban warfare is where soldiers of both sides come into contact at close range. Most likely, both sides will attempt to employ small arms fire to neutralize enemy combatants sited or suspected; but the availability of rifles, side arms, and grenades does not entirely remove the possibility of the worst of all possible battlefield scenarios, hand-to-hand combat: those 'face-to-face' fights mentioned above are bloody and violent beyond description, and their nature mitigates at least to some degree any technological superiority one side might have over the other. Extremely close-quarters fighting is where the most ancient roots of warfare rise to the surface in brief encounters that end with the near certainty of deaths of some of those so engulfed.

But ground forces also present an interesting and little noted opportunity: because of the close quarters in which such combat occurs, and because of the human, real-time, visual nature of identifying enemy threats, there exists the capacity, at least in some cases, to determine whether or not potential targets actually merit attack. Unlike stand-off weaponry, which by its nature can only remotely distinguish civilians from genuine tactical targets—forward observers, prior intelligence, remote video monitoring, and target painting notwithstanding—ground force combatants can and do tell the difference between dangerous adversaries and civilians.

This is by no means a perfect trade-off: infantry and close artillery can cause civilian deaths, either by accident or deliberation: the former is a tragic consequence of non-combatants killed or wounded in cross-fire or through misidentification; the latter is a monstrous and very real possibility, with only some of the many small and large massacres of civilians ever becoming widely known as was the case, for example, of the massacres in the Palestinian refugee camps at Sabra and Shatila in mid-September of 1982.

The accidents and treacheries committed by infantry troops having been noted, the trade-off between force casualties and those on the other side of a conflict is genuine. In an air and artillery campaign, fewer soldiers will be exposed to enemy fire, but more civilians on the other side will suffer as a result. Stand-off weaponry—regardless of the sophistication of technology employed in its guidance, targeting, and detonation systems—will not always nor particularly frequently ensure the safety of those who are not a threat, and this grim fact is unrelated to whether or not enemy soldiers are using civilians as "human shields," as is so often claimed when civilians get killed in bombings. Civilian casualties are an inevitable consequence of the nature of the chosen matrix of weaponry and tactics. When the enemy is at distance, clarity in identification is sacrificed at the same time troops are protected from close-quarters combat with its attendantly higher kill rates.

The trade-off is such: rely on bombardment campaigns to protect one's own troops, and thereby re-allocate the composition of absolute casualty count toward those upon whom the bombardment is being wrought. The greater numbers of dead and injured on the other side will necessarily reflect both genuine targets and innocent civilians.

Readers uncomfortable with or disgusted by this allocation calculus should strive not to wage war in the modern age because technologically sophisticated societies will do whatever is necessary to minimize their own casualties in order to maintain popular support. Deaths of soldiers and civilians on the other side in a war are not nearly as corrosive to that public support as would be large numbers of casualties on their own side.

That means air warfare—despite its limitations in successfully resolving conflicts and despite its inevitable, occasional killing of civilians—will continue to be the first and principal means by which the Western world and its more sophisticated proxies prosecute the grim wars of this century and beyond.



The Dark Wraith trusts that readers have been enlightened—while perhaps being disheartened or even enraged—by this informational article.

<< 54 Comments Total
 Debra blogged...

Between you and BadTux I am learning more than I want to about conducting war in this day and age.

Or as another site put it: All orcs are bad. We just want to kill, without accountability or retribution.

If someone was watching us from outer space would they think we were civilized?

Mon Jul 31, 09:56:21 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Debra.

If we are being watched from outer space, it seems to me that it's not a matter of whether our observers think we're civilized or not, but rather a tactical issue of whether or not they want to come down and try to deal with a species as frisky as ours.

In my judgment, we would be Exhibit 1 for the Prime Directive.



The Dark Wraith rather likes the lack of folks from other worlds making themselves known around these parts.

Mon Jul 31, 10:05:48 PM EDT  
 Mark blogged...

An excellent commentary, Dark Wraith .. and Good Morning / Evening.

The only real thing I’d like to add to that, is to say that whilst the following is certainly true as far as the domestic perspective of the country at war:

Deaths of soldiers and civilians on the other side in a war are not nearly as corrosive to that public support as would be large numbers of casualties on their own side.

.. it does also have the effect of significantly reducing the size of the ”your side” for those who are percieved to be technologically superior.

Look at Israel now, compared to 1967.

In 1967 Israel had an overwhelming body of world opinion (and even the war machinary of Iran and South Africa) on its side – even if there was sympathy for the Palestinian cause – recent Jewish experience meant that world opinion was foursquare behind Isarel.

Today it is a very different story indeed and outside of the United States there is not a single Western country (if anywhere) with a significant proportion of the puplic supporting Israel .. even the Jewish communities of Europe have largely turned against Israel.

People are quite simply refusing to make the connection, with international terrorism, that Bush and Balir were exepcting them to make .. instead they see the technological superiority as the real machinary of terror.

Even Blair can’t bring his country aboard. Technological superiortity is far too reminicent of what was done to Britain in the Blitz of London and Coventry .. and even worse, what Britain did to Dresden (and is STILL punishing itself for more than 60 years later) and even the Murdoch press has had to abandon support for Israel.

Tue Aug 01, 01:50:49 AM EDT  
 Debra blogged...

I would prefer to think that there were others in outer space, I hate to think we are the top of the ladder.

I'm still learning way too much about war.

Tue Aug 01, 02:02:11 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Evening (or is it morning yet, i gets confused during high workload times) Dark Wraith:

Excellent analysis. During one of the many assaults upon al-Fallujah I was asked by a friend who knew that my background included experience from both sides of the insurgency question. I was not happy with sending our style of force into that briar patch. I knew the fighting would be close and vicious and, most likely, to no real result other than knocking down some more buildings and killing some more people. This friend is a history professor at the same college where I was teaching some music classes and she really wanted to know if there was a way to take and control a city without the wholesale destruction and carnage involved with either air bombardment, artillery or rolling in with the tanks and their escorts.

I thought on the problem for several days, scouring through memories and old military texts. The only solution I arrived at that made any sense to me was repellent. Whether or not it would be more repellent than the "destroy the village in order to save it" result of a conventional street fight I do not know.

If I were tasked with the taking of a city and fully taken off the leash in the realm of tactics I would take these measures:

1. Establish a clear, perimeter outside the city (Ceasar in Gaul, circumvallation)

2. Make it known in the city that anyone wishing to come out will be treated justly and honorably. (Saladin, 2nd Crusade, Alexander at Tyre)

3. Infiltrate the city with sniper teams and forward artillery observers, and those new guys from the air force that talk to planes from the ground. Night vision equipment would allow my teams to pinpoint the targets of maximum interest along with various targets of opportunity. Snipers would have a clear criteria for shots taken. The whole idea of this being to convince the people of the city that this is no longer a safe place. If you move in the open, you will be seen. If you are one of the ones we are looking for you will be shot or shelled or bombed soon. Remember what one crazy asshole with a pistol did to the collective psyche of New York one summer? Imagine what a handfull of highly trained professionals could do.

On sending in infantry after massive shelling. It always looks so good. It looked good on the bluffs above Omaha beach, it looked good in the mountains of Okinawa, it looked great on the summit of Hamburger Hill. It just doesn't look that great when they rise up out of the smoking ruins and start shooting at you.

Tue Aug 01, 02:02:46 AM EDT  
 Phoenician in a time of Romans blogged...

In the GBU-28, a Paveway III GPS/INS guidance package (which usually removes the need for the lofted release) takes the bomb on the final leg to its target, where its payload of 4,500 to 5,000 pounds of explosives detonates on top of the underground bunker, breaching overlying earth, concrete, and other protective materials.Collateral building damage in Beirut. The explosion of the bomb then kills personnel in the bunker and sets off or otherwise destroys any munitions stored there. The force of the explosion is sufficient to destroy any building atop the bunker. Surrounding buildings for dozens of yards left standing around the target are structurally compromised both at the level of their foundations and in their load-bearing walls, making the effect of a GBU-28 detonation particularly destructive in urban and suburban environments.

I find a discussion on the carrying capacities of the Kremas in Auscwitch II-Birkenau may be informative here.

These were designed and capable of fully servicing two subjects every thirty minutes, based on a letter dated June 28, 1943. However, anecdotal evidence from operators suggest that the time was sped up to twenty minutes, with three subjects being serviced, or possibly alternating between two and three at a time. It is unclear whether this had a detrimental effect to fully satisfactory outcomes. This would then give a total facility capacity of between 6,600 and 9,900 daily, which seems to coincide with another operator estimate of 7,000 subjects serviced per 24 hours. Such estimates are in line with the logistic capabilities of inputs and outputs to the process at these facilities.

It is the objective and dispassionate examination of such topics which yields the best opportunity for lessons in technical fields such as mission servicing and logistics.

Tue Aug 01, 03:47:37 AM EDT  
 Don blogged...

Good morning, Wraith. As ever, incisive commentary.

If you will forgive my presumption, however, it seemed to me one aspect of stand-off weaponry was missed: the insulation from the results of the attack.

While never having participated in a military operations, I've known many vets who shared their stories of the front, what they knew of the costs of war, and taking life. Killing from a height or a distance, as in some grotesque video game, buffers the warrior from that knowledge. While camera crews and news reports degrade that insulation somewhat, that up-close-and-personal knowledge that you've ended a life is missing from the equation. After WWII, the mantra was "Never Again" because those who lived understood the cost and bore it, as do vets of any ground conflict, and most of their governments.

That is my single biggest issue with the hands pushing the buttons of the war machines now: they are incapable of any accountability, let alone that one, and in their greed and arrogance is no concern for those that will have to bear the costs for their wars.

Please forgive the rant. In closing, while I agree, Debra, that there is almost certainly life "out there" in the dark, I'm afraid DW likely has the right of it: any truly intelligent species would take a look at us right now and move on.

Tue Aug 01, 05:54:44 AM EDT  
 Dianna blogged...

For awhile I thought about aliens, politicians, God and others who might "save us". But lately, I have given up on what I now consider was my fantasy.

I don't think any aliens care about us.

And I don't think "nature" cares if we kill ourselves off - that is quite clear to anyone who has lived to tell the story of surviving the wonder of nature in a gorgeous nature spot.

I think we humans are all we have and that is more than enough. We will have to "save" - to take care, of ourselves. The human race has to save itself - to love and respect to all - with no exceptions. I may change my mind on this, but for now, I think this is what I think is the shape of things.

Tue Aug 01, 12:05:20 PM EDT  
 Debra blogged...

I read this scifi book in the sixties that postulated we were at the stage where we would either go into space or we would blow ourselves up.

We were getting ready to walk on the moon, Star Trek was sort of popular and I had hope that we would pick the first option.

Almost forty years later and our space program sucks, but we certainly have new and inventive ways to kill civilians.

I believe the purpose of the neutron bomb was to eliminate the people while leaving the infrastructure. Now we just don't care about the people or the infrastructure. Killing isn't going to solve this problem, unless we kill every single person on the "other" side.

I'm frustrated and angry with the whole situation. We need to be invaded from outer space, it is the only way we are ever going to see ourselves as Earthers instead of Israelis, Lebanese, Palestinians or Americans. We can't stop the violence ourselves.

I believe Reagan mentioned this while he was still president.

Tue Aug 01, 12:16:21 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Aside to Dianna:

And I don't think "nature" cares if we kill ourselves off

On one of my first forays deep into the boonies of Viet Nam we had stopped for the umpteenth time to strip and take the leeches off each other and I was on the verge of losing it. The strangeness, the hostility of the environment that I perceived were all giving me the major willies. I shuddered visibly and said in a broken voice "this jungle's out to get us." One of our Kmher tribesmen came over and put a hand on my shoulder and gently said "Jungle no get you. Jungle no care." Being able to perceive the total indifference of the environment to my existence made me a much more effective operator in the boonies. Faced with an entity that was completely unconcerned with my survival I endeavored to become as unnoticable as I could.

Tue Aug 01, 12:51:32 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Debra.

The science fiction television series, Earth: Final Conflict, sets forth the complications of a "helpful" alien civilization coming to Earth. The series was created by Majel Barret, the wife of the late Gene Roddenberry. For many years, Barrett has been a considerable, if rather poorly recognized, force in television science fiction. Her other large accomplishment was Andromeda. This latter program provided passing, throw-away mentions of the Earth of the future as a horrific place that had been ravaged by invasions of several monstrous, hegemonic races.

That theme, of course, was explored in the movie, Independence Day, as well as in many others.

Grim stuff. Perhaps almost as grim as the scenario in Serenity and its associated television series, where we are the only sentient beings in the known universe, at least to the extent that we have traveled among the stars. We take our conflicts with us, we fight, we cause disasters, we build and destroy; and it's all our own doing because we really are alone to live and perish of our own devices out there, just like here.

Sadly, the scenario of Serenity might be on the mark. There are some pretty good reasons why we might be, if not the only planet with sentient beings, quite possibly the planet with the most technologically advanced of such creatures.

That's a rather depressing thought.


The Dark Wraith should lay off the depressing scenarios.

Tue Aug 01, 12:54:04 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Minstrel Boy.

Your description of the jungle resonates with me, but I have always found that dispassion of nature to be at times thoroughly terrifying. It seems to me that the defining character of humans—perhaps that which ensouls us—is our occasional, willful defiance of the dispassion that characterizes the natural world.

At our best, once in a great while and with a few people, we really do care. Personally, I find that overplaying such a unique card is disingenuous given the large and other part of our nature; but nonetheless, it is quite a useful lesson to consider that we are different in a material way from all that surrounds us.

On the cave walls in Europe where one can see those very earliest paintings done by human hands, a common yet fascinating feature of the artwork has to do with the difference between how the animals are drawn and how the people are drawn. The depictions of the animals are just amazing in sweeping and fine details of bodies, motion, and interactions. Herds and groups of animals are usual, and the artwork is generally of a standard that rivals anything drawn by more "advanced" peoples thousands and thousands of years later.

But the people in the paintings are altogether different. They are often drawn standing away from the animals, alone and isolated, like observers or separate "others"—apart from the nature they are seeing. Just as oddly, the humans are almost always drawn like stick figures with little detail and sometimes even painted with a darker pigment.

Were any of the cave painters to have depicted a human with the same artistic talent with which they rendered animals, we would know in stunning preciseness exactly what paleolithic/neolithic people of Europe looked like; but no artist of that time ever did that, despite the prolific work some of them did.

That, I would submit to you, is most telling, and not just about those of that long lost time, but also about all of us of every time that will one day be long lost.


The Dark Wraith will leave the conclusions to the readers.

Tue Aug 01, 01:28:54 PM EDT  
 Debra blogged...

I liked the first season of Earth, but they lost me halfway thru the second. Great premise, poorly executed with a distinct lack of cohesion.

I miss the innocent times of being pissed off over Reagan being elected. I hardly recognize the people anymore, we are so polarized.

Tue Aug 01, 01:47:27 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Phoenician.

I rely with some degree of confidence upon you and the other relatively long-time readers here at The Dark Wraith Forums to understand the reasons why I write and publish these rather coldly technical articles, but I have been taken aback by recent reactions in other venues to this style of writing. It began somewhat more than a month ago, when an article I cross-posted at Big Brass Blog earned several angles of criticism largely attacking me for not making the point that I was actually making, or otherwise attacking me because I didn't have the required knee-jerk, scripted way of simplistically seeing a moment of recent history.

Less than two weeks ago, things got ugly at BlondeSense when a couple of long-time readers there, commenters whom I thought would have known better, took rather surprising exceptions to things I wrote. In one case, the reaction was nothing more than a ridiculous diatribe that I wouldn't waste so much as an electron rebutting. The other rather aggressive comment was something I need to address, but I first need to ensure that, even though I find the comment to me somewhat surprising, my answer does not carry even the slightest hint of condescension. Especially recently, I've seen several appalling examples of honest (if somewhat aggressive) counter-arguments by commenters earned everything from sneering retorts to absolutely inexcusable, vile responses without so much as an effort at reasoned rebuttal. This is a process that has been exacerbated by the current Israeli/Lebanese crisis: I see all the makings of an ugly split among progressive voices; and such a schism plays right into the hands of Republicans in November.

The worst of it came at Shakespeare's Sister, though. Aside from the Zionist wetting herself because I had the gall to note modern Israel's history of violence, there was another commenter (something of a newbie) who seemed to think I was some Right-wing denizen who needed to be insulted and ordered to go away. His second comment had a hint of threat in it, and that's the prescription for a very dangerous situation, one I've seen too many times over the years on bulletin boards, message boards, and finally on blogs, whether the commenter making the attacks was from the Right or the Left.

The challenge to me is this, Phoenician: it is not my way to use less than substantial underpinnings for my opinions, judgments, and sentiments; and I invite others to consider that their frustrations, outrages, fears, and concerns have beneath them a substrate of technical details that might very well not only inform them, but greatly enhance both the depth of their sentiments and the body of knowledge by which they can formulate both expression of their feelings and solutions to the issues of the day. This approach is at the considerable risk of having those who decline to read between the lines utterly misinterpret—and therefore wholly misunderstand—why I write as I do.

Because I have found the risk to be greater than I had anticipated at progressive blogs, I shall publish where the environment is less at peril of misinterpretation by those who decline the opportunity to read nuance behind what on the surface sometimes appears brutishly cold, calculating, and insensitive.



The Dark Wraith likes the motif around here better, anyway.

Tue Aug 01, 02:23:31 PM EDT  
 Debra blogged...

I like to learn from you because you don't talk down to me, you assume that I have a brain that is capable of interpreting more than one thing at a time. I find you to be informative and my favorite part is that you make me think.

I very rarely comment on boards for precisely the reasons you mention, not that you would know it by my participation on this thread.

Keep up the great work and I love the scenery here. Much easier to read.

Tue Aug 01, 09:21:45 PM EDT  
 LindiBee blogged...

In your discussion of the pros and cons of air bombardment versus a ground campaign in Lebanon, I was reminded of some comments made today by Robert Fisk during an interview on
DemocracyNow
:

"You heard Sharon, before he suffered his massive stroke, he used this phrase ... “The Palestinians must feel pain.” This was during one of the intifadas. The idea that if you continue to beat and beat and beat the Arabs, they will submit, that eventually they'll go on their knees and give you what you want. And this is totally, utterly self-delusional, because it doesn't apply anymore. It used to apply 30 years ago, when I first arrived in the Middle East. If the Israelis crossed the Lebanese border, the Palestinians jumped in their cars and drove to Beirut and went to the cinema. Now when the Israelis cross the Lebanese border, the Hezbollah jump in their cars in Beirut and race to the south to join battle with them. ...But the key thing now is that Arabs are not afraid any more. Their leaders are afraid, the Mubaraks of this world, the president of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan. They're afraid. They shake and tremble in their golden mosques, because they were supported by us. But the people are no longer afraid. Whether this is because they've grown tired of being afraid -- once you lose your fear you cannot be re-injected with fear, -- or whether it's because our Western forces are now at war with Islamists, not with nationalists, ... I’m not sure."

I, for one, would not be investing in Israeli war bonds anytime soon, thank you.

Wed Aug 02, 02:40:56 AM EDT  
 Progressive Traditionalist blogged...

Good morning, Dark Wraith.

I would like to comment primarily in regard to your reply to Phonecian above.

Now, it is my predilection to await verification while maintaining suspicion; and perhaps I am a bit too reticent in consideration of what verification might entail. Nevertheless, I am inlined to act on verifications rather than suspicions.

Now, I have seen indication of this schism you speak of, and the results of my contemplation are somewhat less than I would have preferred.

First, this indicates a movement from a passive to an active state. That in itself is neither good nor bad, but is full of potential.

Second, I am of the opinion that at least a large portion of this schism is the result of narrow applications; ie a failure to see a bigger picture.

Now, I am a firm believer that greater principles guide peoples' actions, though what might constitute "a principle" is somewhat subjective.

I am trying to relate here the current state of the progressive movement, and I fear I fall short. But there is a particular weakness here.

Suppose that what the lefties really wanted to do was to clean the house. One faction proclaims that we must sweep the floors, another that we must mop, yet another that we must vacuum. They all go at it, and still the floor looks like hell.

That is very much the state of things.

Now, I, too, have at times been accused of speaking from the Repub talking points, and sometimes for merely the choice of words. Odd that. But lesson remembered.

btw, I appreciate your tone. The information itself is inflammatory enough. To take an overly aggressive tone would detract from your arguments.

Perhaps I have too clearly identified myself as an idealist, as one who would prefer facts to histrionics. Perhaps this makes me somewhat unsuited for modern media....

Nevertheless, I believe that style of writing cultivates that type of readership.

Wed Aug 02, 07:06:34 AM EDT  
 Eli Blake blogged...

ground force combatants can and do tell the difference between dangerous adversaries and civilians.

Except, of course in Iraq, where our ground forces have become very frustrated trying to sort out the difference in a disturbingly high number of cases.

And with the unconventional types of fighting that we now see in the middle east, there is no such thing as a civilian that may not also be an enemy combatant. 'Women and children' included-- there have been a number of female suicide bombers, and children as young as six have been employed in carrying messages and smuggling weapons. For that matter, during the recent Palestinian 'intifada' there were several reports of twelve year old suicide bombers (and if there is any such thing at all as child abuse, talking a twelve year old into blowing himself up certainly qualifies.)

War has always been a dirty, messy thing-- despite the romantic vision of it we have from classicists of war as being noble and honorable (for the nobility who were often the leaders, at least) that grew out of the medieval concept of Chivalry (and yeah, even then there may have been a handful of knights who honorably fought duels without involving anyone else, but if so it was mostly for show-- the death of knights one at a time being less important in determining the outcome of wars than the deaths of large masses of lightly armed and expendible foot soldiers). Such terms as 'cannon fodder' have their origins in reality (if they weren't killed by the cannons, they were killed by disease, exposure, starvation or infection from what would today be considered minor wounds), and in those days the idea of burning a town to the ground in the dead of winter and killing all of the male children who might realistically reach the age where they could fight before the war might be over was pretty much a given in war. Massacres of all the inhabitants happened disturbingly often too-- just look at some of the things that happened in our own history during the Indian wars.

The concept of 'atrocities' is a twentieth century concept, as were the Geneva conventions, but war has always been fought as a dirty, ugly thing. And no amount of 'Gallant knight on a dashing white steed' fake romanticism can change that fundamental fact.

Wed Aug 02, 09:12:10 AM EDT  
 Eli Blake blogged...

In fact, to follow up and tie it back to your post, the sort of low-casualty, low exposure to its effects type of fighting that you have with an air war is exactly what the leaders of a country need, given that the tolerance of a public for war is directly proportional to how long it's been since they were exposed to its true nature. For instance, Britain's entry into the Crimean war was marked by much pomp and pageantry. Only the old men of the time were able to talk about the 'glory days' of fighting in the Napoleonic wars, and the younger generation was spoiling to earn their mettle. Sure, there had been that little spat with China in 1842, but by then the Chinese were an easy prey, not the same as a 'modern, European army' and British casualties had been pretty low. But after Britain's experience in the war, the reality of widows and orphans becoming numerous in society, the reality of large enough numbers of one legged men hobbling down the street that they could not be ignored, the reality of morphine addicts and men who were physically just fine but mentally ruined, with the pointless slaughter described in 'the Charge of the Light Brigade' coming home to roost in thousands of homes, the English appetite for warfare decreased (though of course the low numbers of casualties that accompanied running a colonial empire kept England in that business for quite awhile longer). America's leaders were blessed with the fact that since Vietnam, American had not been in a 'messy' war. Grenada, Panama, Gulf War I, Kosovo-- all accomplished quickly, cleanly and with relatively few casualties. And so it was easy for them to sell the current war in Iraq. The 'Vietnam sydrome' as it was called, was gone.

But now it's back. And the price that they have paid for their stupid invasion of Iraq is that it is unlikely that they will be able to rally support for an invasion of Iran or anyplace else in the future.

And that is a good thing. War should be a last resort, never a first option.

Wed Aug 02, 09:38:50 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, Eli Blake.

Your note about the historical reality of knights was mentioned in a recent thread here. Even during the Middle Ages, when the ideal of the chivalrous knight was widely promoted, many people knew better. As I pointed out, Chaucer used delicious double- and triple-entendre to drive home the fact that knights had become nothing more than mercenaries for a "sovereign price" (where 'sovereign' carried the meaning of 'high' and of 'for the king' and of 'exclusive to those not common').

In fact, however, the idea that knights were spared in combat is only partially correct. Yes, the foot soldiers were ground into dust in those ungodly, Medieval battles, but knights started getting slaughtered, too, and in rather appalling numbers during campaigns in the western side of the Orient. What had been complete cakewalks roaring down the European theatre—where unspeakable butchery was enjoyed by the noble knights—rather quickly turned into the occasional and shocking rout once they hit Muslim turf. Most definitely, the European knights did their share of damage, and it was their foot soldiers who took the brunt of the casualties, but the knights, themselves, got their ranks culled, too. In some cases, it was because of nothing more than bad war planning; in other cases, it was because they committed their outrages too frequently and on peoples who would otherwise have left them to continue on their way into the Middle East.

And I do agree with you that the term "atrocity" is quite the invention of modern, "high" civilization and represents a nuanced grasp of an ancient phenomenon of war, hegemony, and occupation. However, the understanding of large-scale butchery as monstrous is certainly not new. Some of the passages I quote in my article La'ana-hum Allah render ample evidence that there were two strikingly different views of what European forces were doing during the Crusades: on the one hand were those who stood to benefit greatly from the spoils of atrocities, who bragged endlessly and in high manner, invoking the Lord God Himself as the author of their work; but on the other hand were the chroniclers whose narratives were relatively factual on the surface, but nonetheless lamentations of the most painful kind. In fact, this latter group comprised not only Muslim writers, but also some Christian witnesses, as well—men of the Church who knew that what was happening was just plain wrong on a fundamental, unforgivable level.

This, by the way, was a major bone of contention that eventually led me to abanon my writings in the Medieval History forum of About.com. The good scholars there were forever damning those who even so much as looked like they were passing some moral judgment on the Medieval Roman Catholic Church. I had no use, myself, for the hateful anti-Catholic commenters (who wouldn't let up with their strange swill, looking for anything and everything that could "prove" that Catholics were and still are some evil creatures), but neither did I have any use for those who made the utterly ridiculous argument that applying "modern standards" to those of antiquity is improper and incorrect. That defense—that somehow we "know better" or "see things differently now," but that our ancestors had completely different world views—is just ridiculous and represents moral relativism at its very worst (and very most vulnerable to Right-wing, fundamentalist Christian attack). It got really difficult when I took a swipe at the Romans, who seem to have some mystical, god-like status among many historians. I noted that Marcus Aurelius disgusted me: on the one hand, he was given to his ever-so sensitive, heartfelt, deep poetry, while on the other hand he was overseeing—consciously, willfully, and prejudicially—the wholesale slaughter of early Christians (and others), principally because their religion offered a rather strong and persistent alternative to the weary harangue of his own Stoicism.

I'd had enough when a Roman historian came back with the relatively recent argument that the persecutions of Christians were "overstated" and the result of successful propaganda by the Christians, themselves, of that time and later.

Whatever. The point is that, regardless of words used, apologies made, or justifications crafted, people throughout history have known exactly what they were doing when they were doing what was patently monstrous. That we should in some way understand and accept this as the way of humanity is to suggest that, at the end of the day, any contrary vision of ourselves in the here and now is an aberration that will surely pass in due course, to be supplanted by the more enlightened, if entirely inhumane, ancient ways that will surely to return to visit old horror on the new world.

I'm not quite ready to buy that—not quite yet, anyway. In other words, I'm not convinced that Neo-conservatism is all that ready to be embraced.


The Dark Wraith will have to wait to complete his descent into complete and pure cynicism.

Wed Aug 02, 10:16:47 AM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Good afternoon, Dark Wraith,

If someone was watching us from outer space would they think we were civilized?

I prefer to imagine the sentient species of the galaxy waiting patiently for us to realize that war is wasteful and never settles anything. And, that when we as a species embrace intelligent rule of law, justice and liberty for all, regardless -

Then and only then will they lift the barricade, and welcome us into the adult world.

First we must solve the conundrum that we find ourselves in:

1. We know how to kill ourselves and every living thing on the planet, thereby making war, in a practical sense, untenable.

2. We know how to use diplomacy and compromise, compassion and rule of law to live together peacefully.

Yet, we so far nearly always choose war, destruction and genocide to settle conflicts.

Until then, we don't deserve to be in sentient company, and we would be a danger to sentients as well as ourselves.

Wed Aug 02, 02:09:54 PM EDT  
 Progressive Traditionalist blogged...

Good evening, Dark Wraith.

I believe you're letting your pessimism get the best of you here:
"...any contrary vision of ourselves in the here and now is an aberration that will surely pass in due course, to be supplanted by the more enlightened, if entirely inhumane, ancient ways..."

But please, allow me to offer you an alternative vision, if only an alternative vision of doom.

Suppose now that we were to overcome our collective past as a species, rather than succumb to it. Hmmm....

Wouldst thou go amongst men? Firstly, thou must learn to cleanse thine hands with dirty water.

Wed Aug 02, 06:57:22 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Progressive Traditionalist.

Ah, you missed my framing, obtuse as it was (as usual). That paragraph from which you quoted was a cautionary statement. My point was that it is when we excuse our ancestors for somehow "not knowing any better" that we allow ourselves the luxury of descent into something less than we in our own time can be as as individuals, as modern societies, and as a great civilization. Far too many are those who apologize for outrages of antiquity as a veil for anticipating that they, themselves, will avoid the damnation of future history. Worse, by excusing those who came before us as somehow "less" civilized, we find the seeds of excuses for our own lesser status.

The Bahai'i faith holds my view of the past as too harsh: societies do evolve from less complexity in moral understanding to greater complexity, and it is in this social evolution that a keener awareness of strong, clear delineations between right and wrong emerge as a function of time, both within a society and across civilizations aware of their antecedents.

I do think about that view, but in the end I reject it. First, "evolution" in the social sense is somewhat unlike evolution in the biological sense, although the former certainly gives appearances to the contrary; but second, even to the extent that "evolutions" of such forms as biological, social, economic, linguistic, and whatever else are similar, there is a basic set of misunderstandings about how evolution works. Things don't slowly evolve; instead evolution is a long, long chain of punctuated equilibria. In other words, evolving systems don't have long strings of "missing links," but instead have long periods of status quo that abruptly collapse to new, greater complexity; but these catastrophic events of change happen only rarely and suddenly over great periods of time and can be almost unnoticed even when they do occur.

Linguistics offers a good example. There is no such thing as a "primitive" language (at least one that is not a forced construct). Language appeared on the scene at some point in the past hundred thousand years or so, and it arrived ready and fully equipped for the conveyance of thought. Even the oldest of languages of which we know are very complicated. If anything, English is about as brutishly simple as a language can get and still be functional (which is, by the way, one of the principal reasons it has survived and flourished). But the point is that languages don't get any "better" as time goes on.

In the same way, species don't get "better" as time goes on. Evolution is not about "improvement"; it is simply about adaptation, and what is in one ecosystem at one point in time quite workable will almost assuredly in a panoply of other systems be utterly fatal.

By the same token, societies don't get more "sophisticated," more "moral," more "aware," or more anything else (except perhaps more destructive in some cases). In that light, we cannot allow for the monsters, the maniacs, and the twisted leaders and their followers of times past to have any slack on account of their "not knowing any better."

That's the point I was making, Progressive Traditionalist: if we allow for the beasts of history to be pitied or admired for their ignorance of the awfulness of their ways, we then have but a short journey back into the black abyss of history whence we are struggling so desperately to emerge.

That we very well might fail is not in doubt. That we should fight against the cruelty of the coming return to the night is more than our duty: the dark, cold future is not our destiny; it is, instead, our choice.


The Dark Wraith has spoken enough of hope.

Wed Aug 02, 08:38:33 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, SB Gypsy.

Imagine an alternative. If we are, indeed, one of the elder "intelligent" species of the galaxy, we could very well begin our journey outward fully equipped as we are with the brutality of all our ancestors and the technology of all our intelligence. In fact, if we don't begin to spread, we could very well eliminate our kind: as such, a diaspora would be a reasonable way to avoid having to change while removing the consequent extinction at our own hand.

Imagine that: as brutal, untrustworthy, and mean as we are, becoming Empire in an expanding sphere of space. If there were other civilizations technologically advanced but peaceful, the dynamic of interaction would be awful, just as it has been here on Earth when our "high" civilization has come into contact with more peaceful peoples of the world.


The Dark Wraith does not like the odds on a good outcome to what might lie ahead.

Wed Aug 02, 09:20:10 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

I like to learn from you because you don't talk down to me, you assume that I have a brain that is capable of interpreting more than one thing at a time. I find you to be informative and my favorite part is that you make me think.

Exactly. I would venture to say that in my eight years of university studies that this class room and professor rank in the top few. I wish could shake his hand and say thanks.

Thu Aug 03, 12:37:52 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

You just did, Mr. Goat.

Thu Aug 03, 01:01:12 AM EDT  
 dread pirate roberts blogged...

good morning dw

i'll echo mr. goat's comment.

i find that often i am unable to sense a "side" to your expositions, which is marvelously refreshing. i do see how some might take umbrage at what they read into your essays, not that you offered anything save informed observation, but because they can't just read something without seeing the machinations of their own devious personalities.

and mucho kudos to the commenters here. more often than not someone has already said what i would have, and more clearly than i could have. also, i type very slowly.

roger

Thu Aug 03, 11:32:44 AM EDT  
 Phoenician in a time of Romans blogged...

I rely with some degree of confidence upon you and the other relatively long-time readers here at The Dark Wraith Forums to understand the reasons why I write and publish these rather coldly technical articles, but I have been taken aback by recent reactions in other venues to this style of writing.

All I know is that, despite being a wargamer earlier, I find it increasingly difficult to read technical descriptions of weapons and strategy anymore. I keep being distracted by the sound of people screaming in my head.

There's a quote from Iain M Banks' "Excession" that covers it nicely:

"It was a warship after all. It was built, *designed* to glory in destruction, when it was considered appropriate. It found, as it was rightly and properly supposed to, an awful beauty in both the weaponry of war and the violence and devastation that weaponry was capable of inflicting, and yet it knew that attractiveness stemmed from a kind of insecurity, a sort of childishness. It could see that - by some criteria - a warship, just by the perfectly articulated purity of its purpose, was the most beautiful single artifact the Culture was capable of producing and at the same time understand the paucity of moral vision such a judgement implied. To fully appreciate the beauty of a weapon was to admit to a kind of shortsightedness close to blindness, to confess to a sort of stupidity. The weapon was not itself; nothing was solely itself. The weapon, like anything else, could only finally be judged by the effect it had on others, by the consequences it produced in some outside context, by its place in the rest of the universe. By this measure the love, or just the appreciation, of weapons was a kind of tragedy."

Thu Aug 03, 02:04:32 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Evening Dark Wraith:

re Quoth The Dark Wraith. Very good. I often wonder what the body counts would be like if the people who made the messes actually had to do the cleaning up, or, at least, pay the bills. If the generals had to walk the field like Henry V after Agincourt, or Sherman and Grant after Shiloh. Walking among the grusome results of their grand ideas. Lincoln knew well what he was saying when he talked about "the terrible arithmetic" of war, because he made it a point to expose himself to that lesson. Having been to some of the massive graveyards in Europe I wonder if we really do ourselves that fine a service by burying our dead one at a time, here and there. There isn't a monsterous field of stones like there is at Gettysburg or Sharpesburg or Richmond. Nothing like the row after row of white stones that you see in France, Belgium, Holland, Italy, North Africa, Guadalcanal or Okinawa. The impact is lessened. Maybe the costs are hidden from us this way, like a stupid accounting trick.

Maybe the Iraq memorial will be a great big maxed out credit card.

Fri Aug 04, 02:19:33 AM EDT  
 trailertrash blogged...

Good morning, Dark Wraith.

The word Hizballah seems to have the same meaning as Hezbollah, etc. Can you tell me why one spelling would be used over the other? I've wondered about that for some time. Thanks.

Sat Aug 05, 10:20:48 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, Trailer Trash.

Good question. (Complicated answer, though.) Here we go.

I shall start with something that seems a little bit off-topic. Let's divide languages of Western Europe into two types: synthetic and analytic.

Synthetic languages primarily use word morphology—how words are pronounced, or "shaped"—to convey meaning within the context of a sentence or other spoken or written thought. A given word can sound and be written differently depending upon the use it has within a sentence. By this means, the words of a sentence can be somewhat re-arranged, and the sentence will still have the same meaning because it's the way the words are "shaped" that tells whether they are, say, subjects or objects.

Analytic languages operate by relatively strict rules of word ordering (i.e., "syntax"). In an analytic language, for example, a noun is a subject because it is at the beginning of the sentence. In a synthetic language, on the other hand, a noun would be a subject because of the way it is pronounced, spelled, or both.

English used to be a classic example of a synthetic language: "inflections" (sounds and spellings on the end or on the root vowel of the word) were many and somewhat nuanced, as was the case with the languages of the Latin family. (English is a germanic language, rather separate from the Latin languages like French and Spanish.)

Interestingly, when the Normans occupied England, starting in the middle of the 11th Century, they imposed their version of French on the English; but this had the fascinating effect of causing the English speakers to rapidly (over a period of less than a century!) "creolize" their native tongue, English. By that, I mean that English quickly began to radically simplify: those ancient inflections began to vanish in spoken, everyday conversation; and because in that time words were written pretty much strictly phonetically, the written words began to show this simplification effect. It was a remarkable and swift change: word morphology could no longer govern word meaning within a given sentence, so word ordering (which had always been there to some extent, anyway, in Low German) had to entirely take over the duty of conveying word meaning. That meant words became much more standardized from sentence to sentence.

Now, English still to this day retains some old "fossils" of the ancient way. Notice that, when you use a regular verb like "look," you use it as follows:

I look.
We look.
You look.
They look.

But!

He looks.

Do you see the old fossil on the third-person singular? There's an inflection on the verb! That's the ancient, synthetic form of English still whispering to us across almost a thousand years.

Okay, now you're thinking to yourself, 'What in Heaven's name does this have to do with my question?' Well, that's actually somewhat easy. Arabic and Western languages share deep roots in the Indus valley languages of many thousands of years ago. The connections are much subtler than those between, say, American English and High German or even between, say, British English and Classical Latin; but nevertheless, the connections are there, and one of the most obvious places to see the connections (aside from the occasional, suspiciously similar sounding word and name) is in the use of inflections. In fact, with Arabic, Hebrew, and other languages, you sometimes have have to know even what letter shape to use in a word you are writing, based upon what function the word is serving in the sentence and where the letter is placed in the word in which it is being used.

Now, this means that, if I want to say "Party of God," I need to know how the word parts of that phrase would be pronounced in different contexts, and how the entire block would be pronounced in different usages. That's where it gets really tricky.

Hiz b' would be a rather blunt form of "Party of" (or "Formal Association of"). Allah would be the more-or-less classical pronunciation for our proper noun for "God."

Put those together, and you have something of a generic noun phrase for "Party of God": Hiz b'Allah, or Hizballah for short (taking away the contraction/"cut-off" represented by the " ' " mark, since those kinds of non-Western sounds aren't all that easy for speakers of Western languages).

So where does the more popular spelling and implied pronunciation "Hezbollah" come from? Well, for one thing, that pronunciation would be fairly commonly found in Lebanese dialectic accents. (It would also be favored by Iranians or maybe Turks saying the noun phrase.) The dialect under consideration would definitely drive the pronunciation: the inflection on the root vowel of the principal noun could sound like an e, an i, or even (as I've heard it) almost a flat, u. Also, the word "Allah" would inflect on its root vowel, which happens to be the first a, so you might (depending upon the dialect) hear an o sound, an a sound, or even an almost "grunted" u sound.

Hence, "Party of God" could come out being phonetically spelled for Westerners in quite a few ways, among which are these (with some of these being more reasonable variants than others):

Hizballah
Hizbollah
Hizbullah
Hezballah
Hezbollah
Hezbullah



So, why do I write it as Hizballah? I do it that way because it approaches what I would consider a generic-form pronunciation. It's not quite accurate, and it's not quite the way a Lebanese would say it in a conversational mode, but it serves the purpose of standardizing my spelling of it from one context to another.


Is anyone still awake?

...

...Where is everybody?!

...

Huh. I think I just bored everybody to death.



The Dark Wraith should have known better than to start writing about linguistics again.

Sat Aug 05, 12:37:54 PM EDT  
 trailertrash blogged...

Good afternoon, Dark Wraith.

No, I wasn't sleeping, that was someone else snoring, okay?

That was a terrific answer. I was happy to read the whole thing. It explains a lot of the different spellings I've wondered about. In fact, I never thought about the "allah" part of the word, but now.... ahhhh, your explanation clarifies so much!

Sat Aug 05, 02:48:12 PM EDT  
 PoliShifter blogged...

OT DW

An article came out today titled:

2 teens arrested in theft of VA laptop

Still it seems no one is asking exactly WHY that VA Employee had that laptop with all that data at his home...where it was stolen by these two kids...

Sat Aug 05, 06:49:30 PM EDT  
 Father Tyme blogged...

DW,
What ever happened to Esperanto?

Sat Aug 05, 08:21:00 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, PoliShifter.

And no one is explaining why the data management, storage, and security protocols were so lax to begin with. It still just stuns me: that theft revealed atrociously lax standards at the VA. Moreover, as you imply, that incident leaves me wondering to this day why that data was on that machine, anyway. As I noted previously, I suspect that it was more than just a matter of a database that just "happened" to be on a laptop that was floating around in the civilian world outside of secure areas.

But then again, I'm always looking for a good, malicious reason for government actions. Mind you, not that the government doesn't display stunning incompetence that could well explain all the nonsense during the Bush years, but I strongly suspect that their incompetence is the only reason their malice hasn't done even more damage than it has.

But then again, I'm still more than a little on the sore side about that VA fiasco in particular. Come to think of it, every time I start probing my inner feelings about that incident, my feelings tell me I'll find true, genuine closure only when I've had the opportunity to "go Israel" on some neo-con's backside.


The Dark Wraith likes the idea of "going Israel" on someone.

Sat Aug 05, 10:56:39 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Father Tyme.

Esperanto failed the most important of all features of a language: need. Languages exist because of the need for people to communicate with one another. As I teach in my occasional seminars called "The Mother Tongue," a language carries the experiences, the thinking, the history, the religions, and so much more, of an entire people, captured at the moment in time when the language is used.

I really don't like looking down on the way people think, but when I hear this stuff about "English only," I just shake my head at the sheer ignorance of those who would imagine that English needs to be "protected" from foreign languages, when in fact English is such a powerful language exactly because it is so adaptable that it can absorb one language after another, one set of new experiences and histories right after another, and still remain "English" as a definable thing.

Esperanto is artificial. No language that is a forced construct can recapitulate that which causes a language to exist in the first place and to endure and flourish in the long run. That's not how languages work.

When people who don't speak the same language are forced to come together and communicate, quite often they'll put together out of compelling need a simple, temporary language, one whose features typically reflect the dominant group within the amalgam. We call such a temporary language a "pidgin." If the peoples stay together long enough, this pidgin will structure itself into a full-blown language, again reflecting in its base a large component of the dominant or "prestige" group within the emerging society. From there, dialects will form, often within otherwise definable socio-economic groups, and some of these "lower" dialects will be more heavily influenced by sub-dominants in the overall hierarchy of the society at large.

But alway, always there is a natural force propelling the construction, propagation, and stability of the language, even if that language is very new to the tongues of the Earth.

Esperanto could not survive and flourish simply because it was not the result of a natural process of language construction by peoples in need of a way of communicating. People—even those who don't speak a word of one another's language—will find their own way to communicate, be it through an agree-upon existing tongue or one forced on the situation. But whatever language arises and endures will not be something that has been slapped together by theoreticians who know better than those who would actually use a language to communicate in the real world. Plenty of languages already exist to fulfill the needs peoples of different places have in social intercourse. In fact, most peoples of the Earth gravitate toward English, and that's not merely because we Americans are in some way "dominant," but rather because ours is the "prestige" language—relatively simple, extraordinarily flexible, and relatively open to both bluntness and nuance in usage.

English is, in fact, so robust that it will survive even those who think that, after a thousand years of living, growing, and spreading, it needs to be protected with legislation by a parliament of American political semi-literates at this late date here in the 21st Century.



The Dark Wraith doesn't have any patience at all for the language of nonsense.

Sat Aug 05, 11:23:47 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

English is, in fact, so robust that it will survive even those who think that, after a thousand years of living, growing, and spreading,...

You make it sound as if it is verbal virus.

Sun Aug 06, 12:43:56 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Mr. Goat.

That analogy is not without merit: English, like several of its predecessors, does have a viral nature in that it "infects" a society into which it is introduced at the level of how the members of that society reproduce their cultural experiences over the generations after English has become a part of the society's communication structures. And the more a culture is captured in the frame of a given language, the more the society becomes dependent upon that language for a broad range of communications because the language starts to shape the way people think and frame their world, which makes it increasingly difficult not to use that language to convey socially compatible and understandable thoughts.

Interesting, isn't it?


The Dark Wraith should probably note that he is not promoting English, but rather only reporting on its infective efficiency.

Sun Aug 06, 01:36:03 AM EDT  
 father tyme blogged...

DW,
English is ever evolving. Change happens (to paraphrase another popular saying). When a language evolves, it’s usually out of necessity. However, I’ve noticed remarkable changes just in our lifetime. Changes that don’t seem to have anything to do with that necessity.
Oh, you can ‘gag me with a spoon’ and add words because everyone uses them. That’s a part of the evolution (non-intelligent design?) of English but what I’ve noticed is that people try to speak above their level. A number of years ago on a local news channel here in Western Pa. (noted for some really strange dialects) an anchor (woman) was reporting on Princess Diana. When she referred to Diana, she called her the ‘Princess of HWales’ with some extreme pronounced emphasis on the H before the W. She followed with H-Wheat and H-What. I was H-Waiting for her to use Woo for who, but she disappointed me. She now works for Fox! Go figure!
Another word that makes people feel more vocabularily (?) impressive is often. Sometime between the 50s and 80s it became fashionable to pronounce the ‘T’. Don’t know why. I guess it just made them sound more important.

Reading news on TV is a joke. Mis-pro-nown-ciations, incorrect usage of words, incorrect words themselves seem to indicate an effort on these reader's parts to impress the audience with their intellect.
Carl Sagan once commented on George Lucas’s inaccurate usage of facts in the movie "StarWars". Han Solo mentioned that he did the ‘Kessel Run’ in less than 10 parsecs or something to that effect. That’s like saying we traveled from New York to L.A. in less than 10 miles. Sagan asked why he (Lucas) couldn’t just simply have hired a grad student to check the facts of the script before they shot the movie. Lucas took him up on that.
Why can’t the networks hire a competent English major to proof read stories before these louts make fools of themselves? On the other hand, maybe we’re so used to the ‘gutter English’ we really don’t care. Either that or there are relatively few competent English majors out there! (None of your students, though!)
I’ve written a few papers on the subject of word evolution and another that I’ve become interested in lately. That is the actual speech patterns that have changed just in the last 50 years. We sure doesn’t talks the ways we did backs then.
English rules; well it used to! Gotta go to try to placate my spell checker. I think it’s having a breakdown!

Sun Aug 06, 09:01:51 AM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Good Afternoon Dark Wraith

if we are, indeed, one of the elder "intelligent" species of the galaxy, we could very well begin our journey outward fully equipped as we are with the brutality of all our ancestors and the technology of all our intelligence. In fact, if we don't begin to spread, we could very well eliminate our kind: as such, a diaspora would be a reasonable way to avoid having to change while removing the consequent extinction at our own hand.


I think it'll take more than one country, it will take the cooperation of everyone if we're to get off the earth and spread our seeds thru the galaxy.

The nature of the challenge is what separates the wheat from the chaff. If you as a species can cooperate well enough, then you might manage to expand from your originating planet. We were almost there.

However, if you keep your wars going, you as a species will go the route of countries like North Korea - chronic poverty and famine. That's why the Bush admin is so very scary to me. We seem to be allowing our govt to choose that route.

And it's doubly distressing because it's been proven that justice and liberty and education breed prosperity in a feedback loop. And the bigger the peaceful and prosperous economy, the bigger the cut of the pie.

The test, or obstacle is that the selfish greedy guts among us would rather let the human race die out before they let one penny escape their grasping fingers.

So, we choose, or let the greedy choose by default, if we will expand as a species into a new environment, or if we will go the route of any species which has outgrown it's environment: we'll die out, or die back and maybe try again in a few tens of thousands of years.

The laws of nature and physics don't care if we think we're special.

Sun Aug 06, 05:58:57 PM EDT  
 Phoenician in a time of Romans blogged...

I really don't like looking down on the way people think, but when I hear this stuff about "English only," I just shake my head at the sheer ignorance of those who would imagine that English needs to be "protected" from foreign languages, when in fact English is such a powerful language exactly because it is so adaptable that it can absorb one language after another, one set of new experiences and histories right after another, and still remain "English" as a definable thing.

Or, more pointedly,

"The problem with defending the purity of the English language is that English is about as pure as a cribhouse whore. We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and rifle their pockets for new vocabulary." -— James D. Nicoll

Sun Aug 06, 06:15:01 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Evening Dark Wraith:

I've been trying all day to get stuff up but I'm at my mother's place and her cable provider got gobbled up by a conglomerate and her service has been spotty. My favorite example of the Norman influence on English is at the dinner table. Meat on the hoof (cow, pig, deer) is based on the old english where meat on the table (beef, pork, venison) is based on the french. Alive, out where you're taking care of it the english is what's applied, when you're serving it to the master, tell him in a way that he'll understand. Interesting stuff indeed. The best example of how confusing rendering Arabic to English can be I recall was in the publisher's notes at the front of Lawrence's Revolt In The Desert where the publisher sends a note regarding a favorite camel of Lawrence's whose name is spelled six or seven different ways throughout the manuscript. He asked which was correct and Lawrence scribbled at the bottom of the note she was a noble beast.

Sun Aug 06, 08:26:13 PM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

Faced with horseplay and shenanigans by the 2nd Clarinet of the orchestra during a rehearsal, Hans Richter, German conductor, (1843–1916) uttered these famous words:

"Up with your damned nonsense will I put twice, or perhaps once, but sometimes always, by God, never."

Sun Aug 06, 10:11:58 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

English is not as bad as German to construct, Peter. The old story goes that, at an international meeting, the German stood up to speak, with his English translator sitting nearby at the ready. The German began his oratory, but the translator said nothing.

After a matter of more than a few seconds, a lady sitting next to the translator whisper, "Are you not suppose to be translating?"

The dignified British translator gave her a side glance and said, "Patience, madam. I'm waiting for the verb."



The Dark Wraith likes short subjects and nouns that have fewer than ten syllables.

Sun Aug 06, 11:24:01 PM EDT  
 BlondeSense Liz blogged...

Hello Gorgeous,

I am almost finished with my shrine to the American god- the missile. The only part I didn't make yet was the missile because I don't know which one I should model the golden idol after. Can you please suggest an appropriate one for the altar? It's ok if it looks very phallic. Actually I thought of gluing little fins on a dildo and painting it gold.

kisses

Mon Aug 07, 12:42:33 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Minstrel Boy.

Quite a long time back, I wrote a long-winded comment on the subject of how the Norman-French pushed into the English language the distinction between an animal and the meat from the animal. The Anglo-Saxons had no problem with eating "cow" and "pig," but the French sensibilities tended toward eating "boeuf" and "porc," instead.

At one time some years ago during my days as a consultant, I tried to explain this to some entrepreneurs who were trying to market buffalo and buffalo-cow meats. They actually farm-raised ostriches, too. They had no patience whatsoever for "theoretical mumbo-jumbo," and they suffered accordingly, as has television station and sports team owner Ted Turner in his venture into the world of alternative meats. If someone would have the common sense and financial wherewithal to simply impose an artificial name on the meat of those stupid beasts, the public would be much more receptive.

The same issue is true with other edibles, too, by the way. Before "portobello" (or portabella") mushrooms were so named in a wide, mass-marketing campaign, they had only a rather limited market; but now that those butt-ugly excuses for fungus have an oh-so-Italian-cuisinie kind of name, they're just delicious. "Portobello" sounds tastier than "mature crimini (or cremini) mushroom" and most definitely more flavorful than Agaricus bisporus.

['cuisinie'?!]

Anyway, another example is the word "sushi," which is actually more of a way of preparation than it is a food, itself. "Calamari" is another one: I swear, if people were to actually come to grips with what it is they're eating when they're eating that stuff, most of them would blow their groceries.

Ditto for that green liquid stuff that some people claim is the ultimate delicacy inside a lobster. It's called the "tomalley"—the liver/pancreas digestive gland. It's supposed to be slurped, according to a Japanese fellow who explained all kinds of things to me when I went to a "real" sushi place once in another land. That was my last visit to a real sushi place, mind you: on the menu were live creatures of the sea, including a "jumping salad" (live shrimp) and several other beasts of the water that should have met their Maker some time before we came together for a meal.

Although the general rule about naming meats other than by their animal names holds true, in this particular instance, the fact that everything had a foreign name made no difference. And even for the items on the trays that I couldn't identify by animal name, the Asian words for them didn't do one little bit to convince me that I wasn't in dire need of hosing the room with the contents of my stomach.

I didn't, of course: for one thing, I was trying to be a gracious guest; for another, I figured that some of the people in that twisted restaurant would think my bile was the Chef's Special.


The Dark Wraith has a limit to his patience with internationalism.

Mon Aug 07, 12:59:57 AM EDT  
 Phoenician in a time of Romans blogged...

That was my last visit to a real sushi place, mind you: on the menu were live creatures of the sea, including a "jumping salad" (live shrimp) and several other beasts of the water that should have met their Maker some time before we came together for a meal.

Especially in this case.

Mon Aug 07, 01:53:42 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Phoenician.

Dear God.


The Dark Wraith is swearing off seafood.

Mon Aug 07, 02:14:31 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

And good evening to you, Liz.

Here's a graphical present for you.

Enjoy.


The Dark Wraith the difference between an adequate missile and a very adequate missile.

Mon Aug 07, 02:16:38 AM EDT  
 father tyme blogged...

DW,
This is OT but I'm confused. It was announced that the main oil pipeline from Alaska will be shut down for repairs because of corrosion (all of a sudden!) This sent the suits in New York to increase oil a buck 53.
Why? Are they that greedy that a possible temporary loss of a few bucks is going to kill them? They all know it's going to go back up.
Why do these short-sighted, greedy people have so much influence on our economy and can ANYTHING be done about it?
Oh and since there's a major criminal investigation about the oil spill with possible huge fines, isn't it convenient that the pipeline is going to be down for a while - and they will recoup more profit?
Lastly, since this will drive the price of oil even higher, after the pipeline is repaired what are the odds that the price will return to the pre-repair state?

Mon Aug 07, 08:44:02 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith:

A small anecdote on naming conventions of food and I'll let it rest. A close friend of mine in California is a genius quality chef. Hard core French style. He is a heavy hitter to the point of being awarded toque neige by the chef's guild of France. We were at the docks one morning, prowling the early returning boats in hope's of Pierre finding some tuna worthy of his kitchen when we heard a touristy type, loaded with cameras and such ask someone "What is that calamari stuff?" Pierre inserted himself in the exchange before any misinformation could be produced and said "Calamari? Is Italian for bait."

One day, I shall be certain to blog some of my Pierre stories, he is a rich source for a writer.

Mon Aug 07, 11:58:27 AM EDT  
 PoliShifter blogged...

Hey DW,

Is the BBA MIA? DOA? KIA?

Just some revamping I hope?

Mon Aug 07, 04:02:27 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, PoliShifter.

I have no clue as to what's going on. I don't have access to the Webhosting server, and no one has answered my e-mail messages. I've tried to do a work-around, but I don't want to go to a hack, which is about the only thing I could do at this point, since the problem is that the password Blogger uses to publish to the server is now being rejected by the host. I've backed up the template, and I'm in the process of archiving all the posts to protect them from a catastrophic loss. Other than that, I don't know what to do at this point other than to create a mirror image site with a similar domain name on my own server.

I'll figure something out, though. Big Brass Blog was a heavy-duty site, rated well up there in TTLB ecosystem, and its death would be a major loss.


The Dark Wraith will think of something.

Mon Aug 07, 04:31:14 PM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

Enlightened, disheartened and enraged, oh yes. While this post was depressing to read, it is not near as distressing as reading about the awful aftermath of death and injury to innocent people, and damage to infrastructure and the environment, by using such weapons and tactics of warfare.

Interesting comments here, too. (Yikes, and such a lesson about linguistics!!)

Fri Aug 11, 08:22:08 PM EDT  

       

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Special Graphic Post:
Highway in Darkness


<< 13 Comments Total
 oldwhitelady blogged...

Good morning, Dark Wraith.

The graphic is very well made, but dismal.

34 to 37 children and 12 or so adult women killed from a missile dropped on their building in Qana.
Isreal says it's Hezbollah's fault, because they fired rockets from near the building, so the missiles from Isreal, into Qana, was response to Hezbolloh's response to Isreal's response to Hezbollah's response to Isreal's response to Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others in a cross-border raid.

Now, Rice isn't going to Beirut, after all. According to Aljazeera.net, "the Lebanese government told her she would not be welcome."

Scary stuff, when will it end...and how?

Mon Jul 31, 02:21:35 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good evening Dark Wraith:

Dark indeed. One of the things that has me most troubled is the amount of miscalculation and surprise that is almost across the boards on this. I'm used to Bush and his crew being "surprised" by things one would expect the rational to anticipate. The way that this has been unfolding seems to have taken almost all the other participants and bystanders by surprise. That's "Guns of August" territory. When things happen in such opposition to conventional wisdom the participants tend to become much less calculated and more reactive in their subsequent courses of action.

Did that big floating skull at one time ride upon the shoulders of an Arch-Duke? How many heads does that dog in background have? Drat that whole "fog of war" motif anyway.

Mon Jul 31, 02:32:57 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Old White Lady.

We shall travel down that highway quite a bit farther before the end of this nightmare. The fact that we cannot see what is in the darkness down that highway will be no deterrent at all: that is and always has been the nature of the road we are now on.



The Dark Wraith just wishes all the children weren't being taken along with us.

Mon Jul 31, 02:34:38 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Excellent reading of the graphical artwork, Minstrel Boy.



The Dark Wraith was a bit worried that the subtleties would be lost in the haze (as is often the case in armed conflict).

Mon Jul 31, 02:39:34 AM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

Quoth the Dark Wraith:
Condoleeza Rice's 'birth pangs of the new Middle East' seem to be proving that a lousy Secretary of State makes for an even lousier midwife.

"And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches toward Bethlehem to be born"?

Mon Jul 31, 09:29:33 AM EDT  
 Mark blogged...

Hmmmmm

I suspect you are playing with us.

I suspect that this is actually a picture you took of the inside of an Armageddon 2006 refrigerator, to see if the light really goes out when we close the door and walk away.

Mon Jul 31, 03:37:49 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Mark.

Of course the light goes out in the Armageddon 2006 refrigerator when you shut the door: the oxygen supply runs out very quickly, so the bulb filament has no fuel to stay lit.


The Dark Wraith deals with the science questions about the EndTime.

Mon Jul 31, 04:26:48 PM EDT  
 blackdog blogged...

I always wondered how the light knew when to turn off. Many times I experiment with my refigerator to see when the light turns off. I never have figured it out, but in the sense of determination, I keep trying. Damn! Almost saw it!! I also try to figure out why so many folk are so stupid as to vote against their best or only interest. It must be gawd. Gawd says "vote against your best interest for then I shall hold you dear".

Must be the medication, I had two crowns put on today. By my Dad no less.

I promise to shut up if these temps will stay on for a week.

Mon Jul 31, 08:10:09 PM EDT  
 Wild Clover blogged...

Good Morning...

The graphic makes great wallpaper, but I wonder how long I can stand having it up. It is also really cool if you invert the colors-very wraithly.

Well done, as always, sir.

Tue Aug 01, 03:04:39 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, Wild Clover.

Well, thank you: I didn't think about turning the graphic into wallpaper, but now that you've mentioned it, I see that it really is pretty cool that way.

What I'll do is reconstruct it into the standard monitor resolutions and add it to my sidebar section of Dark Wraith's Computer Wallpaper.

I'm going to start offering posters of some of my graphics, so this one will eventually be a selection in that medium, although I'm not at all sure it will sell like hotcakes.

Come to think of it, I've never sold more than a handful of any of my various bumperstickers, either, so I won't be suffering from high expectations about poster sales.

Oh, well. Most art is never appreciated until long after its creator is dead and gone.



The Dark Wraith just got a bit depressed by that last sentence.

Tue Aug 01, 12:25:12 PM EDT  
 Dark_Muz blogged...

Good Evening, Dark Wraith-
This is a very nice graphic... even a considerable background. Reminds me of where we're all heading in this life towards the next...

Tue Aug 01, 11:14:05 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Dark Muz.

Ah, there you are. I rather wondered if you would favor this graphic.

As I told Wild Clover above, I'll be turning this one into a computer wallpaper at various resolutions. That won't be too difficult, although creating the original graphic, itself, was one of the more challenging projects I've undertaken to date, despite the minimalism in appearance of the final result.

I've completed the large-scale, "meta-graphic" for my next post; and I'm here to tell you that I hit the wall several times on my computer's abilities. I actually lost the entire graphic, about two-thirds completed, at one point. I had already lost about half the RAM in my machine and about a fourth of the hard drive, and this latest project cooked off another 64 megs of RAM. I had to stop about every 45 minutes and shut down the computer to let it cool off, and that's very hard to do for me because I like to let my obsessive personality take over and just keep plowing until I get what I want. Unfortunately, I couldn't do that, so the project has taken several days; but finally I'm finished with the major work, and now I can work on details and carve-ups for various zoom-in depictions to illustrate the article I'm writing.

I have to tell you, this digital age is giving me amazing opportunities to create informational resources that employ both written and visual components. It seems to me that, in retrospect, we of the Ancient Geek Society knew this time would come, and I'm just glad I have a few years remaining to enjoy the opportunities it affords me.

You, Dark Muz, have considerably more time to take advantage of this new world... provided, of course, the world endures in high civilization mode; otherwise, it's back to cave paintings.

Those can be fun to do, but rendering graphics on rocks is rather tedious.

Almost as much so as rendering graphics in Photoshop.


The Dark Wraith rambles away into the night.

Tue Aug 01, 11:51:14 PM EDT  
 Dark_Muz blogged...

Good even, Dark Wraith-
Yes, we all have our moments of rambling. I apologize for the absence; I've been trying to get my bearing before school starts yet again.

The time line of graphics has been eventful. Like any type of technology or medical improvement, things appear then become obsolete. I'm afraid one reason I don't keep up with graphic, besides drawing and editing scans, is that I know I could never keep up with Photoshop & such. I'm amazed by those who can.

Those how far graphics have gone is something to muse about, even for the Dark Muz. Heh.

Wed Aug 02, 11:02:29 PM EDT  

       

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Special Analysis:
The Sacrifice of Pawns

At left is a picture from the USS Liberty Memorial Website. The USS Liberty was attacked but not sunk on June 18, 1967, while on a spying mission off the coast of Egypt. Israeli aircraft, then torpedo boats, laid waste to it in what the Israelis and 10 official U.S. commissions described as a tragic accident, a case of mistaken identification of the American ship as a much smaller, horse transport boat of Egyptian registry. The picture was taken the day after the attack: the boat is listing, burnt to brown, and pock-marked with holes from ordnance up to and including 40mm cannon shells. Not visible is the damage from several torpedoes. Also not visible are the victims, 34 of whom were killed, another 174 wounded.

In the heat of growing signs of war in the region—what would come to be known as the Six-Day War between Israel and Egypt, Jordan, and Syria—the United States had sent the USS Liberty and other surveillance sea assets into coastal waters off Egypt. According to accounts from crew members of the doomed ship, Israeli Defense Forces aircraft made as many as eight recon passes over it. From The Politics of Anti-Semitism (Alexander Cockburn and Jeffrey St. Claire, Eds., AKA Press, 2003), comes this narrative (supplemented here by graphics) based upon statements by the men who were on the USS Liberty the day of the attack:
"A few hours later... Israeli Mirage III fighters [came], armed with rockets and machine guns. As off-duty officers sunbathed on the deck, the fighters opened fire on the defenseless ship with rockets and machine guns.

"A few minutes later a second wave of planes streaked overhead, French-built Mystére jets, which not only pelted the ship with gunfire but also with napalm bomblets, coating the deck with the flaming jelly. By now, the Liberty was on fire and dozens were wounded and killed, excluding several of the ship's top officers.

"The Liberty's radio team tried to issue a distress call, but discovered the frequencies had been jammed by the Israeli planes with what one communications specialist called 'a buzzsaw sound.' Finally, an open channel was found and the Liberty got out a message it was under attack to the USS America, the Sixth Fleet's large aircraft carrier.

"Two F-4s left the carrier to come to the Liberty's aid. Apparently, the jets were armed only with nuclear weapons. When word reached the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Robert McNamara became irate and ordered the jets to return. 'Tell the Sixth Fleet to get those aircraft back immediately,' he barked. McNamara's injunction was reiterated in saltier terms by Admiral David L. McDonald, the chief of Naval Operations: 'You get those fucking airplanes back on deck...'

"After the Israeli fighter jets had emptied their arsenal of rockets, three Israeli attack boats approached the Liberty. Two torpedoes were launched at the crippled ship, one tore a 40-foot wide hole in the hull [see graphic at right], flooding the lower compartments, and killing more than a dozen American sailors.

"As the Liberty listed in the choppy seas, its deck aflame, crew members dropped life rafts into the water and prepared to scuttle the ship. Given the number of wounded, this was going to be a dangerous operation. But it soon proved impossible, as the Israeli attack boats strafed the rafts with machine gun fire. No body was going to get out alive that way.

"After more than two hours of unremitting assault, the Israelis finally halted their attack. One of the torpedo boats approached the Liberty. An officer asked in English over a bullhorn: 'Do you need any help?'

"The wounded commander of the Liberty, Lt. William McGonagle, instructed the quartermaster to respond emphatically: 'Fuck you.'

"The Israeli boat turned and left."
Virtually none of the survivors of the incident characterized it as an accident, affirming repeatedly that it was a deliberate, concentrated, prejudicial, unprovoked attack to blind a United States asset that could otherwise have detected the military operations Israel was about to mount against its Arab enemies. Official reports say the attack lasted no more than 15 minutes. Survivors claim the attack lasted well over an hour.

From the Jewish Virtual Library, which stands on the conclusion that the incident was a grievous accident cause by both Israeli and American errors, Mitchell Bard writes this: "None of Israel's accusers can explain why Israel would deliberately attack an American ship at a time when the United States was Israel's only friend and supporter in the world."

From the other side of the dispute come explanations ranging from the quite reasonable to the perilously inflammatory. Interested readers may derive a sense of the bitterness of some former service personnel in the scathing critique of official investigations, originally published in the January 16, 2004, edition of Stars and Stripes, by former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Thomas Moorer.

Why the USS Liberty incident occurred that awful day in 1967 will never be known. What happened that awful day in 1967 is without any doubt: an American military ship was attacked, the vessel was destroyed, 34 of its naval personnel were killed, and 174 more were wounded.

As much as the survivors, their families, and other interested parties might want it to be otherwise, the reason behind what happened is not particularly important in light of the compelling lesson to be learned from the incident, a lesson for all time in matters of war and even of peace. The lesson is this:

No rational nation acts against its own interests: intentions are irrelevant; all that matters are capabilities. Wage war and build peace upon this premise, and both the accidents and the treacheries of your allies will be neither frequent nor unexpected.


United Nations symbolIn memorium for the four United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon soldiers killed by Israeli artillery fire at the UNIFIL observation post at Khiyam on July 25, 2006: may your respective nations—may all nations—learn from your final and ultimate sacrifice.




The Dark Wraith has spoken.

<< 20 Comments Total
 BadTux blogged...

They will not learn. They never learn. Nobody ever learns. All they do is repeat the same mistakes, over and over again, sacrifice the same pawns, over and over again, for no reason other than that they can.

- Badtux the Cynical Penguin

Fri Jul 28, 01:27:32 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good evening Dark Wraith:

The USS Liberty remains an unexplained and tragic part of history. Mistakes on both sides? "Friendly" fire, or fire from allies is something that the U.S. military has always had a hard time with. Fog of war goes only so far in the explaining of these incidents. According to the custom of the sea strafing life boats is never acceptable. There is a brotherhood of sailors that is supposed to supercede petty circumstance like war. The U.N. posts that were attacked were stations of long standing. Again, the attacks went on for far too long to be explained away by an "oops, my bad" theme that has been coming from the Israelis. The Irish are leaning toward pressing a U.N. regulation that calls for the extradition and trial of anyone who attacks unarmed U.N. units engaged in observation duty. I hope they push on it. This is starting to get uglier by the minute. The IDF is looking like a bunch of kids who thought it might be a good idea to take the broom to that hornet's nest in the barn. And, as is the nature of the beast, conflicts can grow exponentially in moments.

Excellent work. Adm. Moorer has long been a favorite of mine.

Fri Jul 28, 01:54:37 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Now, now, BadTux.

We should not allow cynicism to overtake us.

Not when despair, depression, resignation, melancholy, pessimism, and utter hopelessness are all available.

Gracious. If I could bottle those products, I'd make a mint.



The Dark Wraith should open a new e-store.

Fri Jul 28, 02:13:38 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Minstrel Boy.

Yes, there are ancient rules of combat that transcend the circumstances of any given fight and any given era. In many ways the Geneva Conventions codified some of those rules.

The one that prohibits attacks on fleeing combatants is tricky. Do you remember the Highway of Death during Desert Storm?

I wonder how many people know about the incident involving George H.W. Bush and the post-flight notation concerning strafing the life boats of Japanese seamen whose ship he and another pilot had sunk. (The note is unclear on whether both or only one of the two American planes did the strafing.)

There's no doubt about it: war is Hell; but making it civilized is downright hard to do.


The Dark Wraith thinks alternative to war are easy by comparison.

Fri Jul 28, 02:22:10 AM EDT  
 kablooie blogged...

Senseless destruction vs. sensible destruction? Matters not, as the result is still destruction.

The world is full of naked children crying for the Moon.

Fri Jul 28, 10:31:51 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith:

Tricky? Indeed. When the enemy is fleeing the field there is that option with no acceptable direction. Do you let them leave and live with the certainty that you will be fighting them again, maybe in a few hours or even moments? The "highway of death" happened at an instant in time when the coalition forces did not know if they would be fighting the tanks and soldiers they let escape Kuwait outside of Baghdad the very next week or two. It is a fine, sharp edge where those choices are made. The ultimate result is that we are all cut, we all bleed regardless of the choice that is made. The main use the Greeks and Romans had for cavalry (this being before the stirrup and all) was the running down and capture for ransom or, if there was no profit motive involved, killing of those fleeing the field. For that reason, cavalry was looked down upon by the "real" soldiers of the phalanx. They were considered to be dilletantes in the arena of war (read Aristonphane's wicked "The Knights" and see how he skewers Alcibiades) that plucked the prizes and loot from the garden of slaughter the infantry sowed.

Here I dismantle the "Phony" Peace argument

Fri Jul 28, 11:16:55 AM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

Dark Wraith,

Um, thanks? I'm old enough to have forgotten this incident, if much was made of it at the time. Ended up serving on the USS America two years later.
So, yeah, despair, depression, resignation, melancholy, pessimism, and utter hopelessness; thanks for offering options.
-Bruce

Fri Jul 28, 11:23:24 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Bruce.

Good marketing practices include always offering consumers lots of choices, each tailored to individual needs and preferences. I, myself, sort of like a blend of dark, sullen realism mixed with a healthy dose of forward-leaning pessimism, with occasional bouts of slightly irritable resignation just for some variety.


Now, you were on the America, then? I have to tell you that it was only in the past couple of decades that I came to grasp what a gruesome time naval personnel on board ships really have. It seems like there was, at least from what I saw among regular-type Army and Air Force personnel, a total disconnect about how brutish day-to-day life on a military ship could be, what with the constant drills, the confined quarters, and the isolation.

And personally—thinking about it on a rather ugly level—I can imagine lots and lots of ways I would prefer to die than on a ship under attack. That whole train of thought, in fact, just makes me want to get up and walk around the yard for a while.


The Dark Wraith will stay on solid ground at all possible opportunities.

Fri Jul 28, 12:36:37 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Minstrel Boy.

Yes, I'm familiar with the history of a rather less-than-favorable view many soldiers take of their mounted brethren. In fact, the concept of the "knight" has carried linguistically mixed valence at a number of times in history. Chaucer, writing in the Canterbury Tales, used wickedly excellent double-entendre (actually, triple-entendre) to convey the widely held sentiment that knights were nothing more than mercenaries.

But, alas, Hollywood makes them out to be such heroes in many cases; and that's okay: it's really not worth the aggravation trying to get people to revise completely skewed beliefs about what they think are the "good guys." I certainly wouldn't try that here. I'd rather write about nice boats and friendly encounters on the high seas among allies.


The Dark Wraith hopes no one thought there was any sarcasm in that last paragraph.

Fri Jul 28, 12:45:08 PM EDT  
 Mark blogged...

A horse transport boat?

Sounds like a truly unworthy target at the worst of times.

*sigh*

Fri Jul 28, 03:21:53 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Mark.

That's right. The IDF claimed afterward that it had identified the ship as El Quseir, an old Egyptian boat half the length and a quarter of the tonnage of the USS Liberty.

Aside from the fact that the IDF jets were flying recon passes over a boat twice as long as the old horse boat, they might have been clued in because the boat they were looking at was bristling with antennae, the most prominent of which was a huge tower right about in the middle of the ship deck.

Yep. Horse boat. Definitely a target for an attack by Mirage and Mystére fighter jets and a couple of torpedo boats.


The Dark Wraith will not be taking any horses for a cruise in the Middle East.

Fri Jul 28, 03:44:49 PM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

When I read accounts of the Liberty incident and recall articles such as
The Five Dancing Israelis Arrested On 9-11, I am reminded of the not-so-rhetorical question posed on another forum:
"What do the Israelis 'HAVE' on us"?

Are the Israelis still pissed that Prescott Bush bankrolled Adolf Hitler's war machine? That Hitler murdered 6 million of their brethren?

Fri Jul 28, 03:59:50 PM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

I was in High school when the first middle east war happened. I just remember that all the adults were psyched that Israel had shown all those muslims what they could do. People were practically joyous that now Israel had defensible borders. I never heard anything about one of our warships being attacked and burned, with the accompanying loss of life. I'm retroactively horrified. Seems it's not the first time the press has been kissing up to power.

Fri Jul 28, 04:56:18 PM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

No rational nation acts against its own interests...

Wraith, thank you for speaking up for those on the USS Liberty and bringing their story forward.

It’s alarming when governments, especially our own, will cover up the truth in pursuit of their (secret?) agenda.

As you mentioned previously, those survivors where shouted down when they tried to tell their stories in an attempt to silence the truth. Just as there are those who will still attempt to silence those who want the truth known these days.

From ICH ... Now add into the mix apologists for Israel:

Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has called for 100,000 apologists for Israel to spam web sites reporting the Israeli Death Forces' horrors in Lebanon. Just like Israel bombed the UN and bombed the USS Liberty, get ready for Israel Firsters to bomb your web site with Bu**sh**.

The following notice is being circulated to potential supporters of Israel's genocide and war crimes:
[...]

Another source:

GIYUS.org, which stands for Give Israel Your United Support, is one of the newest websites to join the fight. Created in July by the World Union of Jewish Students (a group of 50 national independent Jewish student unions from around the world), the website is an outlet for supporters of Israel to praise pro-Israeli sites and condemn anti-Israeli ones.

Creators say the website is for the purpose of balancing anti-Israel sentiment expressed on the web.
[...]

Fri Jul 28, 06:40:08 PM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

(sigh...)

WERE shouted down

Fri Jul 28, 06:56:54 PM EDT  
 The Fat Lady Sings blogged...

I believe Israel targeted that UN observation post deliberately. Those observers telephoned the Israeli military 10 times in six hours begging them to stop shelling near their position. They were ignored. That post took 4 direct hits. The Israeli military kept firing until every stick had been turned into charcoal. Then came the apologies. ‘It was a mistake’. Right. How on earth anyone could mistake a three-story white building with the letters "U.N." emblazoned in large black letters on all sides complete with a light blue U.N. flag hung from a nearby flagpole that was roughly 50 feet high I will never know. Well - they got what they wanted. Four people are dead – and they’re dead for a very particular reason. Israel wanted the UN out of there. Blowing them up was a ‘persuasive’ way of doing it. And outside of Kofi Anon sputtering and mumbling about deliberate targeting – the incident has all but been forgotten. Tony Snow even said Israel was ‘behaving responsibly’ afterward. Much as what happened after The Liberty attack, actually. It’s simple. The Israelis wanted to proceed with their plans unobserved. Same reason now as then.

Sat Jul 29, 01:06:41 AM EDT  
 The Fat Lady Sings blogged...

One more thing - and I think it's important. This war between Israel and Hezbollah has had a predictable, yet disturbing side effect. The anti-Semites are latching onto Israel’s unbalanced aggression and are using it to fuel their hatred and bigotry. There is a huge difference between Israel the country and the Jewish faith; just as there is a marked difference between Saudi Arabia and the Muslim faith. This distinction is important to make – and it’s important to keep an eye on the rhetoric being tossed around. I have noticed people jumping in on other sites railing against Israel – and slipping in some commentary that troubled me greatly. Please allow me this analogy. I am Irish – and damn proud of it. I do not, however, support the current iteration of the IRA – despite my family having direct ties to the birth of Ireland in the 1920’s. What’s masquerading as the Irish Republican Army now is nothing more or less than a handful of bloody terrorists that would kill anybody for money. Though I do not consider the current Israeli government to be nothing but bloody terrorists – I think they are much like Bush and his cronies; and the sooner the Israeli population votes their asses out of office the better.

Sat Jul 29, 01:19:29 AM EDT  
 blackdog blogged...

What surprises me is that I first read about this 4 years ago. To my knowledge this never made the news as events like the Pueblo in N. Korea did, at close to the same time.

The actions of our so close friend, Israel, since it's recreation at the expense of the Palistinians are not in any interest of any stupid foriegn policy of the US.

And I may actually be 12.5% Jewish.

I don't really care, blackdog is a mutt, with a measure of hybrid vigor. He hates greed, stupidity and mendacity, not people.

Those poor bastards on the USS Liberty had nothing to fight back with except radios. This was a mistake???

I will not believe anything I hear for the next day. And don't bother me. I'm in a dark mood. I may not be a wraith, but I can be a real bitch.

Sat Jul 29, 03:51:23 PM EDT  
 Ralph Hitchens blogged...

Wraith, this was indeed a tragedy and although we can honor the survivors' courage and grief, the fact remains that no plausible reason has surfaced that would account for a deliberate attack by the Israelis. It was a case of mistaken identity that could not surprise anyone familiar with the "fog of war." I'm judging from my own experience in Vietnam, having worked in the 7th Air Force command post at MACV and also flown missions, on one of which I was involved in a baffling friendly fire incident in which our gunship crew was certain, beyond doubt, that we knew where we were and what we were shooting at. In the Liberty incident, a clincher for me was in the recently-disclosed NSA intercepts (available online, I think) where one IAF pilot reports to the command post that the target ship is flying an American flag. If this were a planned attack it's unlikely that we would hear such a radio call.

Mon Jul 31, 02:33:27 PM EDT  
 LindiBee blogged...

Let's get this straight- the IAF admits that the target ship was flying an American flag- so this is clear proof that it was a case of mistaken identity????

Right.

Since the USS Liberty was one of our best spy ships at that time, I find it infinitely more probable that the Liberty had intercepted something that the Israelis did not trust them with, (or they just feared that the Liberty had seen something), so our "allies" went to outrageous lengths to "attenuate any security risk."

With friends like these...

Thu Aug 03, 10:55:51 PM EDT  

       

Sunday, July 23, 2006

Special Blog Post:
Middle East Geography Quiz

Middle East Map 0;While preparing several articles for publication here at The Dark Wraith Forums, your host realized it might be worth the time to whip up a quiz sure to challenge and inform everyone. Actually, compared to that Missile Quiz last week, this one should be a somewhat less than a head-banger. Whether you score high or low on this one, you'll enjoy it. Without further ado, take your best shot. At the end of this post is the link to a modest map of the Middle East. If you get desperate, you can open it to see some of the answers to the quiz questions. I know you won't do that, however: you'll slog through the quiz, find out your score, then you'll click on the link to the map. Yes, indeed. That's the sporting way to do it.

Click here to open the Middle East Geography Quiz.



The Dark Wraith invites you to see the map of the Middle East and, as always, thanks you for taking this nice quiz.

<< 51 Comments Total
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Afternoon Dark Wraith:

80% again. I blew off the placement of Gaza, but, I'm not ashamed. While recovering from my hip and shin wounds (hip was left, a chunk out of the iliac crest and the shin was right, so no, I didn't have a good leg to kick with) I was assigned to a facility in the mountains above San Diego teaching map reading and navigation. I would begin sessions by claiming (in a shameless plagarism of Daniel Boone) that I had never been lost. Not once. Ever. Then I would hem and haw a bit and say "I was sorta confused once for a couple of days. . .but I knew exactly where I was the whole time. I was right the fuck there. Some of my tadpoles would even catch on to the philosophical impact of that statement.

Maps, compasses and stars are so much more romantic than the digital efficiency of GPS. I still own and cherish my sextant. It is on a shelf next to my morse code speed key.

Sun Jul 23, 08:34:58 PM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

Two of the answers to your quiz are incorrect. Number seven: Although Pakistan is indeed to the east of Iran, Iran's border with Afghanistan is substantially longer than the Iranian-Pakistani border, which, in a sense, lies on the southeastern side of Iran. Number nine: the Gaza strip borders Israel on the southwest, not the southeast.

Geographical errors aside, I very much enjoy your blog. Best regards.

Sun Jul 23, 09:14:01 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Anonymous.

You are correct about Gaza. That was an error in the javascript. I should have caught it, but I didn't.

The matter of the country that borders Iran to the east was an accident in terms of choices for answers. I certainly didn't mean to put Afghanistan in that list because it does, indeed, border Iran just like Pakistan does.


The Dark Wraith gets the quiz repaired.

Sun Jul 23, 09:28:41 PM EDT  
 meEE blogged...

Thanks DW. I learned that I'm a pretty good guesser. (70%) but feel in no way in charge of the map. Not knowing Syria was my downfall. And knowing that Israel attacked southern Lebanon helped my guess work. I was very sure of Iraq and Iran and the waterways-- process of elimination. I've never studied the area and only remember what little I know by seeing it on tv sporatically--don't watch it very often.

Have a good evening.

Sun Jul 23, 09:33:17 PM EDT  
 meEE blogged...

Ok recent comments would put me at 80% as I was pretty sure that Gaza was SW.

Im still not very much in command of the map. But thanks to you a little better.

Sun Jul 23, 09:36:12 PM EDT  
 meEE blogged...

BY the by I don't see a problem with the Pakistan answer as Afganistan is or seems more east northeast to me.Not directly east.

Ok-- nuf said

Sun Jul 23, 09:38:50 PM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

For Minstrel Boy: Good on ya with the sextant.

You and my dad could've had great conversations. He taught celestial navigation for the U.S. Power Squadron.

With the sextant he made obeisance to the sun-god, he consulted ancient tomes and tables of magic characters, muttered prayers in a strange tongue that sounded like Indexerrorparallaxrefraction, made
cabalistic signs on paper, added and carried one, and then, on a piece
of holy script called the Grail - I mean, the Chart - he placed his finger on a certain space conspicuous for its blankness and said, "Here we are." When we looked at the blank space and asked, "And where is that?" he answered in the cipher-code of the higher priesthood,
"31 -15 - 47 north, 133 - 5 - 30 west."

And we said, "Oh," and felt mighty small.


~~Jack London, The Cruise of the Snark

Wraith, so it really was SW, huh? Pfft. I'm not taking the test again. I didn't even be in charge of the maps the first time. ;-)

Sun Jul 23, 09:40:32 PM EDT  
 meEE blogged...

Sorry, but on another map I see the problem with Afganistan OK

NOW "nuf said

And good night.

Sun Jul 23, 09:41:05 PM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

LOL...

I didn't even WANT to be in charge ... the first time.

Sun Jul 23, 09:43:01 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Afternoon Dark Wraith:

That means I aced it. But, you're right, it wasn't as hard as some of your others. I chose Pakistan rather than Afghanistan because it holds a truer east, although I can understand at least a pro forma argument from someone guessing incorrectly.

Because of my advancing age and aching old wounds I respectfully decline any leadership position. I would be proud to serve hot chow up at the base camp however, and would be content to serenade the nightwatch during my late hour baking sessions. Lessons on the sextant would be given gratis but sextants, like all truly valuable things are bring your own.

Sun Jul 23, 10:16:46 PM EDT  
 oldwhitelady blogged...

Well, well, well.

Good evening, Dark Wraith.

I got an 80% only because I cheated! I didn't realize you'd have a quiz and I hadn't actually looked at a Middle Eastern map in some time. I knew where to find the countries on the globe, should the need arise, but out of the blue like that! Well!
Thanks for the quiz, though. It's always nice to take a refresher.

Sun Jul 23, 10:46:59 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Old White Lady.

Actually, I should be used to—shall we say—"creative" test taking methods. This semester has been the worst in a progressively challenging situation at the colleges where I teach. I've never had so many students openly cheating in my life, and giving them a break has led to several even worse problems with the students becoming more brazen and actually attempting to intimidate me. (Note: that was a bad idea on their part.)

But here, the emphasis is on offering a refresher, as you put it so well, on what countries are where in the Middle East. The names of the nations are tossed around in the news media, but it seems like it helps to know the physical configuration of the players (willing or otherwise) in this latest Middle East drama.



The Dark Wraith should probably be handing out gold and silver stars, or something like that.

Sun Jul 23, 11:56:52 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Mistrel Boy.

I think underneath my error was exactly the same sentiment regarding the geometry of Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. For some reason, as meEE noted, I just think of Afghanistan as east and north of Iran, but it's actually only on the eastern side; but I nevertheless consider Pakistan "true" or "dead" (to use what might come to be an unfortunate term) east of the Persian state.

Anyway, I did fix that question, as well as the misassignment of the correct answer in the other one.

This is the first time I've done a ten-question quiz with this coding. I was actually sweating bullets when I hit the "Publish" button. As soon as I hit it, I knew I'd made a really stupid error, and I had to rapidly jump into the post editor and fix that one. I was so relieved I didn't go back through and test the full, live-fire version, which I have made to work only on this blog.

Although I think it's pretty cool, I don't know whether or not I'll have the emotional wherewithal to push it past 10 questions. That should be a relief to folks who don't like 100-question, multiple-choice tests.

Unfortunately, while I was just writing that last paragraph, it suddenly hit me how I can rewrite the code to make a test of any length I want without having to do any further custom coding.

Oh my goodness! That means I could post a ONE THOUSAND question test without breaking a sweat!

Cool.


The Dark Wraith might try that some time.
[And thereby watch his hit meter not move a single digit for the next two weeks.]

Mon Jul 24, 12:11:23 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Moody Blue.

Thank you for that message you sent me.

I've tried to respond twice now, but your server is throwing my messages back at me. I don't know whether that server is having a problem or if it's looking at keywords and bouncing because of some I used. (No, they're not those kinds of words; they're words involving military hardware.) Whether or not I get the message through to you eventually, I do appreciate the information. I am working on a post that actually addresses the one weapon, what the article refers to as the "GLU-109," which actually has another designation.

Anyway, the spooks of the Internet might be at work, or it might be nothing more than another one of those glitches that vex cyberspace every now and then.



The Dark Wraith works around the barbed wire.

Mon Jul 24, 12:17:00 AM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

Barbed wire

Cute. LOL

I'm sorry you're having a problem with my server, Wraith. I don't like knowing they are messing up. You have my yahoo, too? (Or you could've PM-ed.) It's not that important. I wasn't even sure if the info was useful to you or not.

I sure would prefer more pleasant things on my mind these days. Even those words would be a welcome change!

Mon Jul 24, 12:49:39 AM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

WTF?

Mine to you just came back:

"Permanent Failure: 550-Callback_setup_failed_while_verifying"

I'm confused.

Mon Jul 24, 01:22:27 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Moody Blue.

I'm being blocked on your network. In fact, I've been blocked on at least two in the past 12 hours.



If it weren't for coffee and weirdness, the Dark Wraith would have little for which to live.

Mon Jul 24, 01:34:48 AM EDT  
 Progressive Traditionalist blogged...

Good morning, Dark Wraith.

100%. Not as difficult as most of your quizzes. Informative and fun nevertheless.

Don't think I'm ready for the topographical map though.

Mon Jul 24, 01:45:25 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, once again, Moody Blue.

You can send me messages through the message form in the sidebar, of course. That flows exclusively through my own server and is quite secure. Even if someone tries to disrupt it, I can track the attacker without breaking a sweat.

You can also use the backchannel messaging system at The Dark Wraith Forums Message Board. That way is about as secure and sure of getting through as I can get.

Either way, I'll get your messages and anyone else's who wants to communicate on a secure channel with me. I can also authenticate much more quickly, too.


The Dark Wraith wishes Internet nonsense could still annoy him, but it just doesn't anymore.

Mon Jul 24, 01:53:57 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Progressive Traditionalist.

Yes, sometimes I do like to field a slow pitch just to keep spirits from sinking too low. Don't worry, though: now that I've worked out the coding for these longer quizzes, I have a quiz planned for August that's sure to make people think they should enroll in Ace Trucking School rather than the Dark Wraith's School of Scholarly Gruel.


The Dark Wraith needs to get a trademark on that school name.

Mon Jul 24, 01:57:39 AM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

I am and have been on the phone with tech support for just over an hour and 20 minutes.

And I just blew up. Ka-BOOM.

Mon Jul 24, 02:34:46 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Yikes.


The Dark Wraith eases out of the room.

Mon Jul 24, 02:52:48 AM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

Huh.

Yer askeered of lil ol' me? Just cuz I beat ya to the beast carving station?

Pffft.

If it weren't for coffee and weirdness, the Dark Wraith would have little for which to live.

You forgot the dark chocolate. And don't look in the cabinet behind the stash of fresh chips, either.

Mon Jul 24, 03:37:50 AM EDT  
 John blogged...

80%: failed on both the water questions. Knowing where Oman is and Aden and Persia were didn't stop me ignoring that to place their waterways elsewhere...

Mon Jul 24, 06:20:30 AM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

90% - and I didn't even have to look it up. *heh*

Mon Jul 24, 07:43:31 AM EDT  
 Don blogged...

100% without assistance or breaking a sweat. Much more satisfying than 3/5 on the missiles quiz. Thanks for the exercise!

I've been lurking since the 'misplaced message' incident a few weeks back. Delightfully dark design married to throroughly thought-provoking content.

Please, continue.

Peace!

Mon Jul 24, 09:53:05 AM EDT  
 BlondeSense Liz blogged...

Hello Gorgeous,
90% here but I object to the Gaza answer. Gaza is on the western border but it isn't in the southern part of Israel at all.

Mon Jul 24, 12:03:55 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Liz.

Now you know very well that I'm always willing to take a reasonable argument for an alternate answer on a test.

Here's a map of the region in question.

Notice, folks, that Liz has a point: if you look from the perspective of the longest north/south border, which is on the eastern side of Israel, Gaza sits in the middle of the western side.

But, with respect to the western side—the side of Israel in which the Gaza Strip is situated—it is on the very southern-most end of the border.

Alright, Liz, here's what we'll do: I shall give you the credit for the answer provided you submit a three-page paper detailing the history of the Middle East from 1948 to 2006.

Uh... no, huh?

Okay, how about a one-paragraph statement on the best way to make my shoes stop smelling so beastly in the hot summer weather.

No, huh?

Okay, fine, I'll give you the credit.

Sheesh.


The Dark Wraith will do just about anything to keep the classroom rioting to a minimum.

Mon Jul 24, 02:45:02 PM EDT  
 Mark blogged...

!00%. Having been to all the countries and sailed all the waters in question, I would have had to hang my head in shame had it been otherwise.

On a pedantic note, the 1947 UN Partition Plan for the Palestine has the Gaza Strip covering the half the current claimed southern Israeli border with Egypt. Only the USA recognises the smaller Gaza shown on that map .. but then only the USA recognises an Israeli border within 40 miles of Jerusalem.

Mon Jul 24, 03:15:21 PM EDT  
 Mark blogged...

The ecological way to make your shoes stop stinking:

Get an old (but clean) pair of thin cotton socks. Stuff them with sawdust and place them in your shoes when you take them off. All the odours and perspiration get absorbed by the sawdust.

;)

Mon Jul 24, 03:27:04 PM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

100% and no guessing either. I got lucky on the missle quiz but I had this one down cold.

Mon Jul 24, 04:20:43 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

9. On what side of Israel is the Gaza Strip?

But, with respect to the western side—the side of Israel in which the Gaza Strip is situated... (emphisis added)

Good afternoon Mr. Wraith,
I would side with Blonsense Liz, if I had picked west, but I told you I was 99% ignorant of Israel, so I did not. I figured Gaza Stirp to be somesort of bandage to patch the wounds of the civilians.

Mon Jul 24, 06:07:30 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Mr. Goat.

I do believe I sense that the test-takers are forming a coälition of insurgency here.



The Dark Wraith needs his own Green Zone.

Mon Jul 24, 11:09:53 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Anonymous.

Yes, that missile quiz really took people's heads off. I keep track of the score distribution, but I don't attach any personal information to scores other than a running log so I don't double-count those who take the test more than once. (The problem there is that I'm pretty sure I have at least a handful of IPs where more than one person logging the same IP is taking the test, so I might want to just drop the log altogether.)

On the missile quiz, the overall median score was (actually, still is, since I've had ten people take it today!) 40%. For this geography quiz, the running median is holding steady at 80%.

That's truly heartening to me: I'd certainly rather have people be really sharp at geography than at missile identification.

I suppose that's a sort of bias I might not have were I to live in the Middle East.

--------
Israeli child: Mommy, look. It's a Fajr-3 missile coming this way. Let's RUN!

Israeli mother: No, sweetie, that's one of those inaccurate Qassam missiles. See? It's coming at us, which means that, by the time it gets here, it'll be off course and land over there in that park with the atrocious landscaping.

--------
Lebanese child: Look, Mommy! It's a GB-28A/B with the Paveway III GPS/INS navigation package and the 4,500 pound bomb! Let's RUN!

Lebanese mother: No, sweetie. That F-15I did that loft maneuver, but the bomb didn't release. That's the pilot's used barf bag he ejected because he pulled up too hard on the maneuver.
-------



The Dark Wraith should probably lay off the good-outcome missile plays.

Mon Jul 24, 11:38:49 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Mark.

I hope you're not pulling my leg because tomorrow I'm going over to where the new campus building is being put up and grab a pile of sawdust. I'm going to need to figure out some excuse for what I'm doing if someone asks me why I'm taking it.

And no, I'm not planning on telling them the real reason.



The Dark Wraith just hopes this sawdust thing is worth the effort.

Mon Jul 24, 11:42:43 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Don, and welcome to The Dark Wraith Forums.

Don't be too down about getting three out of five on that missile quiz. That thing wasn't easy, but as I had noted on the thread for the quiz, the media every now and then tosses out some missile term, and it's good to know what the journalists are talking about.

And it's also good to know when they don't know what they're talking about. Minstrel Boy brought up that point when he told about a picture of a Qassam being incorrectly identified as something else. I've seen several examples of that, but I've also noticed that reporters appear now to avoid getting specific with naming the hardware they're showing in their reports. I would bet that, every time they get a name wrong, they receive a whole bunch of calls and e-mails from ex-military types correcting them.

Fortunately, a few rounds of that should disabuse the average reporter of trying to talk in anything other than the vague, scripted, quasi-jingoisms more suited to their lot in life. If they're really good, they might one day get to be like Ted Koppel, doing the "embedded reporter" gig and being allowed to wear real Army fatigues.


Sorry. I got a little wound up there. Something about the TV and newspaper version of war horror just doesn't seem to be giving the average American the key to Clueville about how monstrously unproductive any solution that goes BOOM! usually is.


The Dark Wraith needs to lighten up on the American electorate.
[Who knows? Maybe someday they will once again elect a President with frontal lobes. That would be cool.]

Mon Jul 24, 11:59:17 PM EDT  
 PoliShifter blogged...

90%

Good evening Mr. Wraith,

if this had been an exam in college and you were my professor I would be outside your door right now asking what you ment by "directly east" of Iran meant.

Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are all east of Iran.

I suppose the correct answer would be Afghanistan which is directly east while Turkmenistan is Northeast and Pakistan is Souteast.

I see your students have been discussing this issue.

Had this been an exam I would have crossed out the choices and penciled in Afghanistan.

Lucky for Dark Wraith, I was not one of his students in college.

Tue Jul 25, 01:12:26 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Trust me, PoliShifter, I have many students every semester who take quite a bit of pleasure in challenging test questions I provide. I usually have to work a little to get them over some degree of timidity, but once they know I enjoy and encourage that aspect of our general dialogue, they have a certain zeal.

And as for crossing out answers and providing your own, that's not a good idea: a professor who knows what he's doing has a purpose in providing the framework of answers from which to choose. In some cases, I'm looking for an answer that is correct but not the obvious answer that too many would know without serious study or deep insight. For example, in a statistics class, I might ask the following:

Which of the following probability density functions has the general shape of a so-called "bell curve"?

A) the Chi-squared pdf
B) the Cauchy pdf
C) the binomial pdf
D) the exponential pdf
E) the Poisson pdf

Now, PoliShifter, I would hope to God no one would strike out any of these obtuse answers and write in "the Normal pdf" just because it's the obvious and first example of a "bell curve" probability density function.

As another example of a question students might decide to answer to their preferences, when I ask about the essay, "The Age of Reason," I most certainly don't want a deeply religious student striking out answers and providing his or her own interpretive analysis.

In fact, this has happened to me with precisely that essay. In one instance, asking the students to review "The Age of Reason" and answer the question, 'In your judgment, do we now live in an age of reason as Paine described such?', I had a woman launch into a diatribe about Jesus and how she prayed for her baby in the hospital; and all the other babies died, but hers lived, and it was because she prayed to Jesus to save her baby.

Jesus might very well have saved her baby, but I flunked her ass.



The Dark Wraith does not suffer well answers he doesn't want.

Tue Jul 25, 01:44:29 AM EDT  
 PoliShifter blogged...

Hi Dark Wraith,

in your example you wrote:

Which of the following probability density functions has the general shape of a so-called "bell curve"?

A) the Chi-squared pdf
B) the Cauchy pdf
C) the binomial pdf
D) the exponential pdf
E) the Poisson pdf

"Which of the following" in my mind is operative. I would not go looking in my mind for a more correct answer since I am being asked "which of the follwing" not "What country borders Iran directly to the East?".

Now "which of the follwing country borders Iran directly to the East?" would be very acceptable in my mind. But my mind is no measure of any degree of sanity.

If you would have asked me about pdf's I would like reply "you mean portable document files?"...that's about as much as I know about probablilty density functions in regards to bell curves. If it's somewhat like an elecron orbital or wave function then perhaps we can talk on some obtuse plain.

It's a shame that people do not actually READ Age of Reason...By people I mean the religious types who are propagandized to hate Paine and his work. TDR called him a "dirty little aetheist".

Such a tragic figure in history is Paine and one of my favorites. His pamphleteering fueled the revolution. If alive today who would likely have a blog.

Comnon Sense in many ways is applicable to this very day as does The Crisis.

It's been a while since I have read Age of Reason. Perhaps I should dust it off my book shelf next. I do recall Paine railing against organized religion but not spirituality.

I congratulate you on having the balls to flunk her. She could have circled the church groups around your classroom and have you declared a dirty little aetheist as well.

Still, I don't recall Age of Reason having anyting to do with praying to Jesus to save babies in hospitals.

I would have asked her why she didn't pray for all the babies. And if she really followed the teachings of Jesus then she would have prayed for everone's baby but her own and done everything in her power to save everyone else's baby.

Tue Jul 25, 02:24:26 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, PoliShifter.

Trust me when I tell you that, in a more than a few cases, religious groups have come down on me on academic matters regarding members of their flock. The same has happened over the years with respect to failing athletes, of course: generally speaking, college sports programs have proved much more dangerous, at least in the short run, to my career and safety than fundamentalist religious groups have.

The principal difference between the two is that school administrators are much less likely in the case of a religious student to go back and change my grade from an F to a C.



The Dark Wraith is saddened by the continuing religious persecution.

Tue Jul 25, 09:06:51 AM EDT  
 Debra blogged...

100%. Much better than that missile test.

By the way I enjoy taking tests. Any kind except physical. Test anxiety is something that I do not suffer from. Even if I don't know the subject I like to take the test just to see if I can figure it out.

Do they have medication for that disorder? Not that I would take it, but it would make me feel better if somebody besides me suffered from this. Not that I'm suffering.

Tue Jul 25, 11:23:41 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith:

It's looking more and more like this geography quiz will be quite dated soon. . .

Did the Secretary of State go to the region merely to have a better seat for viewing the carnage?

Tue Jul 25, 11:45:30 AM EDT  
 ballgame blogged...

100%. W00t! A youth lost to Strategy & Tactics magazine pays off for something. (S&T or no, I still wouldn't go near that missile quiz, though.)

Tue Jul 25, 06:54:46 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, ballgame. Welcome back.

What?! You didn't even try the missile quiz?

I guess that falls under the old "discretion is sometimes the better part of valor" rule.

I've been using that rule myself of late in holding my tongue on some of the attacks I've taken by commenting on other blogs. That's something I never understood in some military campaigns: if the enemy is holed up on a mountain top, and if the only time they're going to shoot at you is when you try to go up there, why keep trying to take the stupid mountain top, for God's sake?!

I think it goes back to the old Eddie Murphy point about the horror movies where there's some evil, haunted house: what motivates people to open the door of a house, and when the house growls, "GET OUT," the people go on in and set up residence?

Yes, sometimes discretion is definitely the better part of valor.


The Dark Wraith listens at the door before deciding whether or not to go in.

Tue Jul 25, 08:11:17 PM EDT  
 BlondeSense Liz blogged...

Hunky Dark One wrote:
"But, with respect to the western side—the side of Israel in which the Gaza Strip is situated—it is on the very southern-most end of the border."

But that wasn't the question. You asked what side of Israel Gaza was on. It's on the west side. I don't see a 'southwest' on a map of Israel.

The question ought to be re-worded for your next batch of students: "Where is Gaza in relation to Jerusalem?" or "If you only look at the top part of Israel and pretend that the rest of it doesn't exist, where is Gaza?"

Try some foot powder and put baking soda in your shoes at night. ;)

Thu Jul 27, 12:23:27 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Okay, okay! I'll give you the credit for the question.

Sheesh. This quiz business is rough work!


Now, I tried the sawdust. It actually worked, at least to some extent. Unfortunately, whatever kind of sawing instrument those guys we using produced sawdust mixed with splinters. I didn't see them; but let me tell you, I sure felt some of them.

I was walking along thinking to myself, "You know, I look stupider than usual today the way I'm walking around like I'm afflicted of some urge to do ballet."

Yes, the baking soda is probably a good idea. I usually use that stuff in recipes, but I suppose it should work in shoes, too. If that works, I might try some other foodstuffs for ailments. I remember my mother used eggs to wash her hair. I thought that was pretty normal until I figured out that the stuff they were advertising on TV, like Prell, worked a whole lot better.

Still, it seems to me that the eggs would have the advantage of adding a little cholestrol to an otherwise unclogged follicle or two.

I'm digressing here, aren't I?


The Dark Wraith needs to regain his grip on reality.

Thu Jul 27, 01:40:21 AM EDT  
 BadTux blogged...

100%. But I remember all that crap from Lebanon War I (Israel invasion of Lebanon, Act I), Lebanon War II (Israel invasion of Lebanon, Act II, punctuated by U.S. invasion of Lebanon, Act I, followed by U.S. Marines blown up and U.S. evacuation of Lebanon, Act I), and Oil War I (a.k.a. Let's Trick Saddam into Invading Kuwait). The more things change, the less things change, now we have Lebanon War III and Oil War II. It's deja vu all over again.

- Badtux the Elderly Penguin

Fri Jul 28, 01:33:34 AM EDT  
 Wild Clover blogged...

Debra
said...

100%. Much better than that missile test.

By the way I enjoy taking tests. Any kind except physical. Test anxiety is something that I do not suffer from. Even if I don't know the subject I like to take the test just to see if I can figure it out.

Do they have medication for that disorder? Not that I would take it, but it would make me feel better if somebody besides me suffered from this. Not that I'm suffering.


You're not alone. My dad used to bring me all the employment tests from work(he was personel manager) back when I was in High School because I like taking tests. He was pissed when I scored higher than he did on the supervisory one :) I also took the SAT twice, simply because I scored higher in math the first time and knew I was better in English...I reversed scores and added 20 to each the second time...which was 8AM the morning after my senior prom.

I have in the past been accused of nerddom.

Fri Jul 28, 02:47:37 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Wild Clover.

I strongly suspect that nerdhood is a more common affliction than most doctors are willing to admit. Lord knows, I've fought it most of my life.

That test-taking fascination is something I've seen in a number of people. They are usually quite bright, and some of them get downright irritable when they hit a test that befuddles them. It took me years to realize that this really is a genuine psychological affinity for some.

I think I might have had it, too, but for the fact that the first intelligence quotient test I ever took got me labeled a "moron" and relegated to a small class of kids with various and sundry mental disabilities. (Apparently, a lisp I had at that stage of my development was the final proof that I belonged in the "special education" class.) I didn't know exactly what was going on; but fortunately, I mentioned something to my mother about it awhile after the transfer, and she raised enough Holy Hell that they put me back in with the "normal" kids. I was, however, for a very long time after that considered quite "learning disabled" (to use the modern term) by teachers before they would actually have me in a class.

To this very day, I dislike with an intense passion "intelligence tests" and profiling instruments of any kind: in the former, I dislike having to work out the assumptions of the test writer; in the latter, it's usually too obvious what the responses to each question are intended to accomplish in terms of the final profile that gets created.

I favor the fact-based tests like you see here at The Dark Wraith Forums. Even disputes are clear-cut in means of resolution. And besides, anyone who comes to this blog most definitely could not be considered a moron.

You might have just surmised that this is the reason we almost never see a Right-wing trouble-maker around here.


The Dark Wraith does like the peace and quiet.

Fri Jul 28, 12:18:39 PM EDT  
 SAP blogged...

BOO-YAH! 100% on my first try!!!

Thu Aug 10, 01:57:00 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, SAP.

Well, I'm impressed.


The Dark Wraith definitely needs to get butch on the next quiz.

Thu Aug 10, 02:38:29 PM EDT  

       

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Special Analysis:
In Response to 'An Irresponsible Question'

I have yet to directly address in a major article here at The Dark Wraith Forums the latest Middle East crisis involving Israel, Lebanon, and the Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. As noted in comments on a previous thread here, the trajectory and end-point of the violence is obvious to me, yet something seems different this time around: even though the dynamics have not materially changed from previous confrontations, and even though all indications point to no major turning point in the ways and means by which international and inter-ethnic conflicts are resolved in the Middle East, something not yet entirely quantifiable to me is not quite the same.

Answering a request by Moody Blue for my analysis of the situation, I responded in part as follows:
Here's my problem. The current situation in the Middle East has a dynamic that is so obvious to me that I could literally close my eyes and type for 30 minutes, laying out exactly what's going to happen. The particulars of the events on the ground from moment to moment and even from day to day are largely irrelevant to the trajectory and end-point.

Yes, certain members of the G-8 are trying to broker a backroom deal; yes, the Israelis are following a well-worn path of obliterating their potential adversaries at the very level of capacity to carry out the duties, rights, and responsibilities of sovereignty or, in the case of Palestine, future sovereignty; and yes, the Israelis, for doing all of this, are going to leave in place the symbols of their generations-old nemeses in the Middle East. They never killed Yasser Arafat, even though time and time again they could have, and they will do the same with the nominal head of Hizballah, Hassan Nasrallah, or one of his most capable lieutenants. The whole conflagration will cool down in a while, and the brokers of record will move in, help clean up the mess in Lebanon, and feel like they were the agents of quasi-peace who finally got the guns to stop roaring.

Israel will then negotiate a final border solution with a fully and permanently castrated Mahmoud Abbas in Gaza, relieved as he will be of the overwhelming power that Hamas had held in shaping Palestinian policy toward Israel.

Israel will, in the meantime, establish a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon, probably something about 20 miles wide, up to just south of the Lebanese city of Tyre.

Then we'll see negotiations and playing around with the idea of replacing the Israeli troops with a United Nations peacekeeping force in the security buffer zone. That will go on for some time.

A nervous calm will eventually settle over the region, with hot rhetoric and a relative absence of gunfire. Ultimately, status quo ante will return, with the ante being weaponry poised at enemies everywhere, but relative peace and quiet... until, of course, the next round.

It's so easy to see.

Now for the problem: something in my gut is telling me that it's not going to play out this way. It's a tiny voice, and I simply cannot put my finger on exactly what's nagging the Hell out of me.

Mind you, there's always background noise, intrigue, and little sparklers of weirdness in these flare-ups in the Middle East. Small mysteries are like a persistent weed that grows on the landscape of deterministic outcomes in politics, and the current crisis has no small share of oddities.

But I honestly don't think that's what's behind my uncertainty. I don't mind uncertainty: I can always qualify my calls with some ifs, ands, ors, and buts; however, this time, I just cannot lay claim to the well-spring of my concern.

No, it's not Syria. The government in Damascus is relatively weak militarily, and its leadership is not nearly as willing as it would have been a generation ago to engage in full-blown hostilities with Israel; and that government, despite having a mutual defense agreement with Iran, is less than thrilled about having Iran come to its rescue in a show-down with Israel.

As for Iran—setting aside the fatiguing, constant barrage of anti-Israeli, anti-Semitic propaganda emanating from Tehran—the theocratic leadership has no intention of giving Israel a pretext to terminate the Persian state's nuclear program, which in my judgment is considerably closer to deployment (not 'development'—deployment) of nuclear weapons than most other analysts believe.

None of that is what's bothering me. It's something else, and I do not yet know what it is.
My sense of frustration with giving a name to my concern is becoming moot. This is probably just the same story, now cast on the stage of the 21st Century: war, destruction, appalling levels of civilian casualties, behind-the-scenes political wrangling, and lots of inflammatory rhetoric. To the mix we can this time add a maddenly incompetent U.S. Administration incapable of doing anything other than giving the thumbs up to Israel.

The peripheral nations in this latest drama, so often cited by media analysts, do not present serious threats to a wind-down of the conflict in the normal course.

Syria is not a major threat. Its current government, led by Bashar al-Assad, the son of Hafez al-Assad, is far less prone to violence than it would have been under the late Hafez: its military is not strong, and its mutual defense treaty with Iran is actually a deterrent to any interest it might have in joining the fray in Lebanon.

The Syrians are not stupid. While they are more than glad to have the buttressing strength of Iran's considerable military might behind them, they know very well that Iran is a nascent hegemon; therefore, any action Tehran would take on behalf of Damascus would come at a dear price to Syria's sovereign autonomy.

As noted above, Iran's leadership is not keen on turning Israel's attention to it, either. The only way to stop Iran's nuclear program from becoming a nuclear weapons stockpile is through destructive intervention. No, diplomacy is not going to work; and in the absence of the world's great powers being willing to adopt a policy that allows all nations to develop and stockpile weapons while assuring that their use would bring a coördinated, reciprocal nuclear attack, a pre-emptive military strike is the only way to resolve Iran's nuclear ambitions. Whether or not the ambitions should be stopped is another matter entirely; if, however, the goal is to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, the only way the goal can be achieved at this late hour is through the wholesale destruction of its nuclear fuel refining facilities. But the United States is wholly incapable of carrying out such a military strike for two reasons: first, the resources to do the job just are not there at the assured level and, more importantly, at the assured sustainability to engage what could turn out to be a months-long bombing campaign; and second, Iran has become far too economically powerful, now delivering as it does crucial fossil fuel to Turkey and other putative U.S. allies. The U.S. cannot afford to literally cripple major parts of Asia Minor, nor can it afford the wrath of China, which would in the event of military action against Iran be financing through its routine, massive purchases of U.S. Treasury instruments the destruction of one of its emerging trading allies in the Shanghai Coöperation Organization.

In the absence of the United States using military force to neutralize the Iranian nuclear weapons program, only one nation on Earth could and would do it. The leaders in Tehran know this, and they are simply not going to give Israel the pretext to deal with the problem while a grateful Western world looks on and an infuriated China is paralyzed to action by lack of leverage on the Jewish State.

With all of the above as backdrop, as it stands now, a return to that above-mentioned status quo ante within several months seems not just likely, but downright certain. Any remaining doubts I might have—doubts I still simply cannot shake—I shall address in a subsequent post.

Many are the topics concerning the Middle East now being discussed in the Blogosphere. Both long- and short-term solutions are offered, questions are asked rhetorically, shock and outrage are regularly expressed. By way of example of the quality and character of inquiries being posed, the Green Knight published, "An Irresponsible Question," which was as follows:
Given that Hezbollah is both an external threat to Israel and an internal threat to the legitimate government of Lebanon, and

given that the government of Lebanon has information on Hezbollah but not sufficient military power to deal with them, and

given that Israel has plenty of military power but not as much information on Hezbollah as they might, and

given that it's in both Lebanon's and Israel's interest to have peace on their border and Hezbollah gone or at least disarmed --

was there ever a possibility of, you know, some kind of joint operation between the two nations to deal with their mutual problem?

Or is outright war the default option in the Middle East no matter what? Is the "rational actor" theory of the nation state really just inapplicable in that part of the world?
My response, edited and augmented, was as such:
Let us make a minor change to the question set: replace "Hezbollah" with "Druse"; or replace it with "Kurdish."

Hezbollah has been but one of a handful of provisional entities operating in the Middle Eastern theatre. Generally speaking, each has its base of operation—be it a territory, a town, or an enclave—and from that base it fields what are essentially patrolling squadrons of armed militiamen.

These militias vex border areas, provinces, and/or groups of villages, where they kill people, exact extortions, and cause other problems. Some are well financed, others are not. The Christian Druse, for example, have long been rumored to be provisioned by Israel, which uses their services as a counter-balance to Islamic militias and other irregulars. Kurdish militias can be found from Syria to the border regions of Turkey and Iran, in some cases making what nearly amount to regularly scheduled, cross-border raids that inflict casualties and infuriate the rulers in the countries they target.

But these militias create and enforce a curious balance of power; as such, when one of them is removed, the power shifts. This is exactly the same process that occurs in biological systems: take out one "problematic" infecting organism, and its place is filled by one or more of the remaining infectious agents, which then sometimes grow without control.

When Israel eviscerated al Fatah in the earlier years of this Century and the last, two groups arose: a nascent, very militant wing of al Fatah, and Hamas. Both of these groups had been there, but the center of al Fatah—largely by virtue of the standing of Yasser Arafat—had held sway.

Once the political center of al Fatah had been destroyed, all manner of trouble-making groups had their moment of opportunity. Gaza Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has no power to stop Hamas, and enlisting the aid of Israel is simply out of the question. For one thing, Israel has been withholding tax revenues from the Abbas government, money crucial to building a central, powerful military that could deal with provisionals and trouble-makers.

Israel regularly commits the same mistake made on a grand, catastophic scale in 2002 by the United States. By wiping out the Baathist regime in Iraq, and by obliterating the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, we completely removed the twin bulwarks that had kept Iran in check. Absent the vice grip on Tehran, the Persian state grew in regional and even extra-regional influence like wildfire.

We had no capacity to create an instant government in either Iraq or Afghanistan, so we had no capacity to fill a vacuum before the Iranians did so on their own behalf and to their own interests.

Israel similarly has no capacity to fill a vacuum it leaves when it destroys a pestilence, so it guarantees that the most aggressive of remaining pests will rise and dominate the territorial, and then the political, landscape of a country or turf crippled by military action.

Both Israel and the United States act to ensure a short-run solution yet have nothing even close to the resources or wherewithal to project long-term, enduring stability in the absence of the militants of the hour.

As such, whether it would be in unilateral military action or in some program coördinated with a tolerable central authority, eliminating one threat simply ensures that a greater threat will arise subsequently. The current effort will have no different result.

And then the question becomes, "Who really wants a different result, anyway?"



The Dark Wraith will offer further analysis should events warrant.

<< 49 Comments Total
 Eli Blake blogged...

Interesting analysis. Although like Hamas, Hezbollah which controls 23 seats in the Lebanese parliament is not only a military organization but also a political one. As such, an argument could be made that if its military wing were destroyed or badly damaged, then it might focus on gaining control over the organs of the state by increasing its political influence (and as Hitler showed when he cast off the brownshirts on the 'night of long knives', once one has control of the state the militia becomes more of a nuisance, and loyal members of the militia can always be appointed to military command positions when the military is reorganized.)

But a more pertinent matter (which your post likely feeds into) is this: the big missing player in this whole matter. Osama and al-Qaeda would dearly love to control a militant group within geographical reach of Israel. But the Palestinian groups, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al-Aqsa Martyr's brigade all have their own Palestinian leadership and don't want to take orders from someone outside of Palestine. And Hezbollah is a Shiite organization that is controlled mainly from Tehran, so bin Laden has no influence there.

In fact, bin Laden has never really valued the Palestinian cause historically-- his rhetoric has been directed at the U.S., not Israel. But he values it now for one reason-- he knows how much it resonates in the Muslim world and in his quest to promote an international jihad, it serves his purpose to be pro-Palestinian. But beyond that, in order to reassert his influence in the Islamic world (which has been marginalized, even if we haven't caught him) and gain recruits, very little would serve his goals better than a high profile terrorist attack in Israel. Not an easy task, to be sure, but one he is only too certain to want to try.

As such, he has to be seeing this as a blessing. The political and military vacuum that is likely to result is exactly the kind of soil he needs to plant the seeds of his terror organization.

Hopefully the Israelis understand this too and will be waiting for him.

Thu Jul 20, 01:01:31 AM EDT  
 BadTux blogged...

What is different this time, compared to previous times that Israel has retaliated against Hezbollah, is that Israel has bombed targets that have nothing to do with Hezbollah. It's as if they're tauting the Syrians and Iranians and French, "c'mon, do something! I'm killing lots of Lebanese civilians. Give me a pretext to go to war against you by stepping in to defend the Lebanese!".

It's as if they *WANT* WWIII to start.

This isn't like when they invaded Lebanon to take out the PLO. For one thing, they were invited by the "president" of Lebanon at the time, who thought the Israelis could help preserve the tattered remnants of Falangist power by taking out rival militias. Nobody has invited the Israelis this time. And it's not like their previous retaliatory strikes, which mostly took out Syrian military installations and such. The Syrians are gone now, all the Israelis are reduced to doing is bombing the "bases" of Lebanon's "army", which is a lightly-armed body of approximately 20,000 "soldiers" that is more akin to the U.S. Border Patrol than to a real Army (no heavy weapons, no real capability to do anything except chase smugglers and head off illegal immigrants at the border, just as the Lebanese "air force" was a few lightly-armed choppers used for drug interdiction, and their "navy" was a few Coast Guard cutters used to chase smugglers' boats).

There's just no rhyme or reason to the Israeli bombardment. It's as if they don't care what they're aiming for, they just want to kill, kill, kill until someone, anyone, steps in and says "Enough!". And are hoping that because it's Arabs they're killing, that it'll be Syria and Iran who step in and say "Enough!". Yeah, retaliatory strikes are par for the course with the Israelis (and boy what a lot of good it's done them, everything's just so peaceful in that part of the world!), but these are different, different in a qualitative -- not quantitative -- way. Different as in, it looks like they're drumming for a war with Iran and Syria, and will kill all the Lebanese necessary to do so.

As for bin Laden, I believe he is still aiming for a big attack within the United States, but will state that it is retaliation for U.S. support of Israel in order to get the pro-Palestinian propaganda points. After all, 10% of the Israeli economy is direct military and economic aid from the United States...

-BT

Thu Jul 20, 01:35:39 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Eli Blake.

I am ever so glad you brought up the matter of al-Qa'ida in this context. I was unwilling in the article to mention that organization out of concern that I would be playing to one of Cheney's favorite boogey-man cards; but you and I both know that the reality is such that Israel, just like the United States before it, has opened up a brand new recruiting center for the worst of the worst terrorists.

And that's one of the very bad things about wiping out the senior leadership of al Fatah or Hizballah or groups like those: collective memory—in this case, the collective memory that Osama bin Laden has never been a friend of Palestinians or even of Hizballah—is destroyed, leaving the remaining members far more vulnerable to the siren call of those with whom their more seasoned elders would never have gotten into bed.

It just frustrates me to no end that the media seems to make no effort whatsoever to distinguish one so-called "terrorist" group from another. I wonder how many people even notice that neither Hamas nor Hizballah has much taste for the sick PR gore of the beheadings that are so popular with the "insurgents" in Iraq. Even though the Iraqi kidnappers, like Hamas and Hizballah, demand prisoner swaps, the Iraqi loons don't waste much time going to the Internet with their latest gore-fest, crying justifications like "revenge" and such, while Hizballah and Hamas, having every bit as much claim to "revenge," hold their prisoners and wait for the cooler heads to prevail as happened several years ago with the kidnapping of that Israeli businessman: eventually, the Israelis did, indeed, do a prisoner swap, and the whole issue was resolved without beaucoup blood being spilled.

That, by the way, is one of the interesting changes that have emerged in this latest round. Ehud Olmert was getting roundly castigated for weakness by the Israeli intelligence/military propaganda machine. The mouth organ DEBKAfile (which is still an extraordinarily useful source as long as you understand that it's a propaganda machine), was crying bitterly two weeks ago about how Olmert was holding the IDF back from effectively resolving the 'crisis' of the capture of Cpl. Gilad Shalit. (It seems Olmert's initial orders were that no ground troops were to be involved in blasting the Palestinians around.) Israeli military culture is having a very hard time coming to grips with what is effectively the first civilian government Israel has had in a while, and it looks like Olmert is now bending over backwards with his More-Butch-Than-Thou approach in Lebanon.

It appears to me, in fact, that Olmert went from holding the IDF on a very short, very strong leash to just giving up and handing the armed forces complete license. The target inventory in Lebanon seems to have expanded to the point of nothing short of wholesale, unmitigated seige. That's not a political direction for a military operation, and it's certainly not something I would expect of someone like Olmert, who is a lawyer by profession and hadn't shown any signs of being a fan of international relations by obliteration.

I could be wrong, though. Maybe Olmert all along was a wannabe Menachem Begin; but I don't think so. He's being pushed from behind the scenes, and I wonder how long he's going to let it go on, or even if he can now stop what has been started before Beirut is literally leveled. (I do doubt if it will go that far, but when I see that artillery and air force attacks are targeting food production and distribution centers, I get the really sick feeling that this isn't any limited, lesson-teaching exercise.)

Anyway, you are correct: Israel is opening a wound into which the nastiest of all infections, Osama bin Laden, can slither.

In my judgment, if that's what happens, just about everybody from Tel Aviv to Damascus to Washington is going to be really sorry.


The Dark Wraith wonders if there will come a time when Israel misses Arafat.

Thu Jul 20, 02:08:13 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Evening Dark Wraith:

The whole G8 or Condi Rice stepping in to broker yet another pretend peace reminds me of nothing less than the old Shecky Greene joke about how Frank Sinatra saved his life. It seems Shecky was getting worked over in an alley by some mob muscle and Frank stepped in and said "OK, he's had enough."

I too, have a feeling of unease, along with creeping dread over this one. It might be that I'm reading Barbara Tuchman's brilliant "March of Folly" again, it might also be my total lack of confidence in the current adminstration being able to put together any kind of policy that won't involve killing more people in more places.

I wish I could blame it on the fresh mozzarella I just made today.

Thu Jul 20, 02:14:15 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Badtux.

You got that comment up just before mine, and you're noting the same thing on which I commented: the target inventory. It's simply beyond any military value, some of the assets they're striking. These aren't targets of opportunity; they're actually facilities at the core of how a modern society maintains a reasonable level of health and nutrition for its population.

I'm not sure I want to go there just yet, but your point is certainly in my mind: is this the equivalent of torturing a victim until his friends can't stand it anymore, which then flushes them out so they can be dealt with?

God, I hope the Israelis are smarter than that... or at least I hope they aren't as inhumane as that. In my judgment, the Syrians aren't going to intervene, nor are the Iranians. That means this is going to end in the wholesale destruction of Lebanon, and before it's over, thousands upon thousands of Lebanese casualties.

That's not cool. Not even in the old-school Israeli approach to regional domination.


The Dark Wraith hopes a better explanation becomes apparent pretty soon.

Thu Jul 20, 02:18:09 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Minstrel Boy.

Fresh mozzarella can't be blamed for anything adverse other than perhaps some mild constipation.

Good Heavens, I remember that joke about Sinatra; and you're right: it's amazingly applicable right now.

Yes, that small sense of dread is still barking in the back of my mind. As I've noted, I think and I hope this is all showmanship for the front-row audience; but Lord, if this is a real sea change, this Century's going to be a rougher ride than even I thought.


The Dark Wraith is definitely going to finish that bunker he's been working on.

Thu Jul 20, 02:24:42 AM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

Good morning, Wraith.

Thank you for more of your excellent analysis on this situation. Not that it takes any of the apprehensions away.

...something not yet entirely quantifiable to me is not quite the same.

Keith Olberman uttered a phrase Wednesday evening that caught my attention: “proxy war.”

...brokers of record will move in, help clean up the mess in Lebanon, and feel like they were the agents of quasi-peace...

Bingo?

Who are these brokers? (Or silent partners?) Who stands to gain most? This is another troubling part?

The MSM is already catapulting the lock-step talking point of putting the blame on Iran and Syria, and --boy, howdy-- that sure fits right into the original PNAC plans to gain control of the Middle East, doesn‘t it?

Eli, ewww! I wish you and Wraith hadn’t said that about bin Laden.

Thu Jul 20, 05:57:41 AM EDT  
 dread pirate roberts blogged...

good morning dw,

not to quibble with your analysis, but i have to wonder if the idf knows something more about it's targets than the rest of us. and how reliable is the info we get on the nature of the targets. i find myself questioning the claims of both sides about everything.

roger

Thu Jul 20, 10:16:47 AM EDT  
 Eric A Hopp blogged...

Dark Wraith: What a fascinating and complex analysis of this entire fiasco. I'm certainly going to re-read this several times.

When Israel started this latest round of attacks, two weeks ago, I couldn't help but think about Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon with the expressed goal of wiping out the PLO, which was using southern Lebanon to launch their own attacks against Israeli settlements. Israel marched into southern Lebanon, then trapped the PLO in Beirut, where the Israeli army proceeded with a good ole fashioned siege of the city. That war ended with a complex agreement of having the PLO withdrawal from Lebanon, and giving Israel a security buffer in southern Lebanon.

Flash forward to today. We've got another terrorist group Hezbollah making attacks against Israeli settlements. The Israelis invade southern Lebanon AGAIN to wipe out another terrorist group. Only this time instead of the terrorist group being the PLO, it is Hezbollah. And now we hear talk from these high level diplomats and power-brokers of trying to negotiate a peaceful settlement to this crisis. Is it me, or do I feel like I'm trapped in some type of temporal time loop a la Star Trek? Because I can bet that whatever diplomatic settlement that takes place for this crisis will include another withdrawal of both Hezbollah and Israel from southern Lebanon, giving Israel another "security buffer" in which another terrorist group will move into to launch even more attacks against Israel, prompting Israel to invade Lebanon AGAIN!

The cycle keeps going on and on--like a broken record stuck within a groove.

I wish I had an answer to solving this crisis, but I don't. However, I do believe that any resolution to this crisis has to be economic. We have got to find ways to pull the Palestinian people out of the squalid refugee camps that exist in the Palestinian Authority, and give them the tools and resources necessary to live productive lives. An economically viable Palestinian Authority accomplishes one major goal for Israel--young Palestinian men will be more likely persuing their own self-interests of living their lives, rather than joining these radical terrorist groups bent on destroying Israel. If there ever was a huge blunder that both Israel and the Bush administration made, it was denying the Palestinian Authority the economic aid it needed after Hamas assumed power through the Palestinian elections.

Thu Jul 20, 12:42:03 PM EDT  
 Eric A Hopp blogged...

Dark Wraith: I was going through your comments on Israel's attacking of targets in Lebanon. You say these targets are not of military value. In fact, you claim that these targets are "facilities at the core of how a modern society maintains a reasonable level of health and nutrition for its population."

I'm not going to dispute you on this claim--in fact I may just agree with you, considering that I'm asking myself what is left in southern Lebanon that's worth attacking by the IDF? If the Israelis are attacking the civilian infrastructure, such as water, sewage, and power plants, then this is going to cause even more misery among the Palestinian and Lebanese people. It is going to make their lives even more hard to live by.

And it is going to provide a great recruitment tool for Hezbollah. Bombing the civilian infrastructure of southern Lebanon will certainly force whatever businesses are left there to shut down. Young men will not be able to find work there. They will become angry and blame Israel for their hardships--hey look! There's a Hezbollah recruiting station! Time to join up and strike back at Israel for what they've done!

We now return you back to your regularly scheduled Star Trek time loop.

Thu Jul 20, 12:58:21 PM EDT  
 karen m blogged...

Good afternoon, Dark Wraith.

You're right - this whole mess feels different than Israel's last foray into Lebanon. Maybe it's because the US is in the Middle East as well, or maybe because there appear to be more people involved. Or the bombing of clearly civilian targets...I'm betting that Israel did have this in mind; their intelligence is the finest in the world. I do support Israel, by the way; just not this time.

Whatever the reason, it feels more...intense, and feels like it's going to escalate into something really, really awful. Not seen before awful.

Thu Jul 20, 02:12:28 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

I can state that I'm 99% ignorant of the history, conflicts, etc. of Israel and surrounding demographics. I had no preconcieved notions that this conflict was history repeating itself or that something smells different. That said, I now smell a big, stinky red herring.

Bushco's got its tit in a ringer by creating civil war in Iraq, a situation that has not been in place before. US contributes what, $2,500,000,000 to Israel annually? Israel presumably owes a few favors; what better way than to return a few by creating a false flag distaction to relieve a bit of pressure on poor bushco's tit (as a starting point). And bushco desparately needs a distraction now, just look at the astounding bad press reagrding Iraq at the momment.

Who knows where it leads after that, but I doubt that anybody's intentions are pure, not with the sick fvcks that apparently support this example of dignified culture.

Thu Jul 20, 03:08:52 PM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

To: Our buddies in Israel
From: Your Neo-con buddies in Washington

Hey, youse guys, we need a favor. Maintaining a majority in the U.S. Congress this November looks kinda shaky. So, could you stir things up over there and jump in somebody's shit at the slightest provocation? We could sure use some distractions from all the scandals our stupid shit Congressmen keep getting into.

And maybe you can piss off the Arab world enough that they'll even start some stuff over here. Or pull something off yourselves and just blame it on the Arabs. We'd try it ourselves but people are starting to get kinda suspicious and they're watching us.

Thu Jul 20, 03:31:41 PM EDT  
 Progressive Traditionalist blogged...

It's easy to forget about a snake that tried to bite you when you see a tiger in your path.

Thu Jul 20, 07:16:37 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Progressive Traditionalist.

It seems to me that it's fairly easy to think that the snake is far less dangerous than the tiger merely because the tiger makes more noise.

As I recall, some of the most dangerous creatures I've ever encountered managed to get far too close to striking distance by virtue of their silence... and, of course, their smallness.


The Dark Wraith has vowed never again to get bitten by a brown recluse spider.

Thu Jul 20, 08:04:03 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Peter of Lone Tree.

Surely you're not suggesting (and I know: don't call you 'Shirley') that the conflagration in Lebanon could be the start of a months-long program that will slowly, inexorably suck in the United States, coming to a head just in time for the November elections, in which event the American people would once again wet their pants and run to the very political party that has overseen everything from the attacks of September 11, 2001, to the utter debacle that has become of our invasion of Iraq.

Certainly the Bush Administration wouldn't have known about this latest Middle East round of violence and actually had a hand in causing it to take the unbelievably brutal and risky turn it has.

Gracious, Peter.


The Dark Wraith would never repeat such conspiracy theory stuff.

Thu Jul 20, 08:09:37 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Mr. Goat.

As I've noted, it strikes me that Iraq has skipped the civil war foreplay and ended up in a state of orgiastic anarchy, now. I shall avoid asking the hard-core among the Libertarians how they like what pure anarchy looks like, but I can be most certain in my statement that this anarchy is not going to find any peaceful, stable state of happy equilibrium in the near or even distant future.

The mainstream media can't stop playing this as a simplistic scenario, with maybe two rival bad groups and a suffering but hopeful government that desperately needs our continuing help.

Baloney. The very idea that this is a "Shia versus Sunni" fight is nonsense. The number of players on this stage is at least half-a-dozen, with factions within the new, American-made government, itself, allied to one or the other of the murderous mobs roaming the streets.

The Project for the New American Century envisioned something like this, except simpler and therefore more conducive to a predictable end state: in the mid- to late-1990s, the likes of Richard Perle and Douglas Feith were writing about the desirable, total collapse of Iraq and other such sovereign states into a Balkanized mess easily manipulatable by the United States.

The dream now is that, once everyone gets sick of all the killing, Iraq can then vanish into three states, one Shia, one Sunni, and one Kurdish.

Of course, it's not going to happen that way; and the longer the factions battle each other within the Iraq that supposedly now exists, the more deeply their hatreds are going to shape the future, crippled, dangerous states that arise from the ashes.

No matter what we do now, the result is going to be a complete mess.

The conclusion for a neo-conservative is obvious, then: well, since we've made this much of a mess, we might as well get Syria and Iran into the mix, too.

I can just see the Republican campaign motto:

You think we've screwed up? Well, you ain't seen nothin' yet!



The Dark Wraith thinks that one will be a winner in November.

Thu Jul 20, 08:26:23 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Evening Dark Wraith, and greetings to all:

Something that has sent me scurrying to the bookshelves lately involves the 5 administration blundering into Viet Nam (as chronicled by Barbara Tuchman in "The March of Folly") and the blind, inevitable stupidity of the beginnings of WWI (Tuchman again "The Guns of August"). As in Viet Nam we have the convulsions of a colonial structure (Isreal and Lebanon being from the Palestine Mandate) collasping under the weight of reality. As in Viet Nam the Americans are bound by a combination of blind alliance (to France, now to Isreal) and woefully lacking a sense of consequence as they stumble from reaction to over reaction to reflex. The NeoCons have already begun howling for their full scale total war (Bill Kristol on Fox this morning), unable to see how every move they have made in the region so far has ultimately benefitted Al Queada and Iran. We go into Afghanistan, Iran's border to the east is now secure and Osama is safer in Pakistan's tribal area along with the added credibility of having made the Great Satan bleed. We go into Iraq and remove the most implacable Iranian opponent and the only viable check on their western expansion, along with clearing the way for their Shia population to create a western expansion of the mullah's influence. Now, since the NeoCon semi-rationalists always seem to follow their mad prophets in about a month, reframing the conservative fatwas in less insane terms, I would imagine that a scenario where Isreal makes a series of incursions into Syria, the Iranians (shades of a murdered Arch-Duke) honor their mutual defense agreement and we all are merrily dragged off to a Hell of unforeseen magnitude.

I spent the afternoon with my son, two flintlock rifles, a matched set of duelling pistols, two cap and ball revolvers (I love me some Colt Navy's) and big ass bag of black powder and several targets. We emerged unscathed and the targets were destroyed (my favorites for the large ball weapons are 1/2 gal milk containers filled with water and frozen, they sparkle when they disintegrate).

I wish war really was like the target practice the NeoCons still seem to think it is. Blocks of ice are way more fun than messy human things. They don't scream, rot or stink up the place.

Thu Jul 20, 08:54:29 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Mr. Goat.

That picture to which you provided the link was one of several that were taken at a munitions transfer site in Israel that day. Last Monday, I sent one of the photos to BlondeSense Liz, and she posted it at BlondeSense.

I was heartened that her commenters found it appalling, but I was also depressed by the statements about how we did the same thing during World War II. Yes, we let kids write epithets like "Hitler has one ball" on bombs, but I think the point is being missed in such analogies. Neither the kids who wrote mean things to Hitler nor the Israeli kids in that photo really have any capacity whatsoever to understand the nature of an enemy or the reasons for war against said enemy; and neither the American kids of World War II nor those little Israeli girls truly grasp the consequences of hatred that defines obsessive militarism.

An American child of World War II vintage would have come of age and been a relatively young adult into the Vietnam War era, but would have been too old to likely have been an ardent opponent of our spiral into the heart of darkness that was Southeast Asia. By feeding the kids of any era a concept of war detached from its utter and horrific violence, we deprive them of the ability to genuinely understand rightful but nonetheless horrible military action from mere military violence without profound reason and due cause.

World War II might very well have been the last "good" war we fought—and I shall not get into that right now one way or the other—but no child can understand the difference between being encouraged to celebrate and have fun with a "good" war from being encouraged to celebrate and have fun with a venal, wrongful war.

There is a difference, and societies that think it doesn't matter which kind their kids get to play with are destined to have kids grow up to have no sense of right from wrong in the awful place where both right and wrong get innocent people killed.


The Dark Wraith wonders how many arm-chair war supporters really thought the photo of those little girls was nice.

Thu Jul 20, 09:11:38 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Karen M.

I need to say something about Israeli intelligence, but I'll probably have to flesh it out in a subsequent article.

Israel's intelligence agencies are, indeed, legendary. Some of that is, of course, exactly that: legend. However, much of what is believed is only the tip of the iceberg of what has actually occurred over the years. From assassinations to rescues even to having a hand in a few regime changes, agencies like Mossad have done amazing, shocking, great, and terrible things, most of which will never be known.

But something is different now. The Israeli military/intelligence community propaganda news Website DEBKAfile recently used the occasion of an intelligence failure to throw up a smokescreen to make the failure look more intense than it really is. It seems the Israelis don't know where Hizballah is keeping the two soldiers it kidnapped. DEBKAfile made a big story out of this, saying that assets and agents from several branches of the overall Israeli intelligence apparatus had been tasked to help locate the two men, and this was depriving other, much-needed intelligence matters of resources.

Now, clearly this is a ruse. Whether or not Israel is unaware of where its soldiers are being held, there wouldn't be any mention of this in an open, public forum unless there were some interest in having the enemy know it.

But underneath this small counter-intelligence trick is something deeper. I have heard from some pretty darned good sources that Israel's intelligence services really have been slipping. What seemed to be operations that were predicated by great espionage work—like the assassinations of a number of top officials of Hamas in Gaza last year and earlier this year—weren't really anything of the kind: those Palestinian heavies were openly following regular routines and were making no decent effort to hide themselves. In other words, those dead Hamas officials are dead because they were just plain sloppy.

The same is true of a number of bombing strikes in Beirut suburbs this past week: it is and has been no secret at all where Hizballah headquarters are. The leadership makes little if any effort to stay hidden. Hizballah is as much a political organization as it is a provisional militia, so at least some of its leaders have to be public figures, with public offices and public presences. Even their television station is right out where everyone can see it.

I don't know for a fact that there has been a considerable erosion of the intelligence-gathering capabilities of the Israelis; but I'm seeing their attacks in Lebanon as a combination of hits on obvious targets and random, seemingly worthless and haphazard swings in the dark. That latter component of appearance is decidedly not the case, at least not entirely. What's really going on, for lack of a scenario like Dread Pirate Roberts suggested, is that the IDF is taking this to the level of a siege in the absence of a clear ability to surgically extricate the cancer it sees in Lebanon.

In such a situation, it is the natural course of the war to quickly degenerate from an awful but brief affair to an outrageous and hard-to-control conflagration.

It seems to me that this is what is, at least in part, going on, although there is decidedly more to it all than what I've noted here.


The Dark Wraith has rambled enough without going to article-length rant.

Thu Jul 20, 09:56:04 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Eric.

I agree with you regarding the the economics of the region being crucial to any enduring solution. The problem is that it has to be a wide-spread economic solution, and Israel has just wiped out one of the brightest zones of economic renewal in the entirety of the Middle East: from being a basket case only several years ago, Lebanon was projected to have attained a growth rate of six percent for this year. That's not going to happen, now. The country will have a large negative growth rate for the year, and it is likely that substantial real growth in GDP will now be absent for years to come.

That's a tragedy in itself. Although wealth does not guarantee moderation, it is a strong force in that direction, especially when it occurs in the presence of a liberal society, which Lebanon was in many ways. Unlike a number of other nation-states in the area, Lebanon was quite Westernized.

I find it particularly strange that we seem to have a penchant for being involved in one way or another in wiping out the more pro-Western, liberal states of the region. For all of the repressive acts and policies of the Baathist regime in Iraq—particularly with respect to the Shi'ites—that country was very pro-Western in its cultural affinities. (Curiously, though, Saddam Hussein, in his final year or so of power, had taken to what might have been a façade of interest in being more religious.)

We've overseen religious forces ridding from Iraqi life many Western lifestyle choices: Christians who used to be quite popular selling their booze are now being killed or otherwise chased out of the business; and Iraqi girls are being kept from attending school in some areas and are being treated in very old, harsh ways in other places). Now it looks like we're going to watch and enjoy a similar retrenchment in Lebanon, a country with a tradition of some tolerance and liberalism (absent the Shi'a influence from Syria that had been a suppressing agent until recently).

But with economic vitality now a lost dream, Lebanon and its people could very well turn in reversion to a far more fundamentalist social configuration because it is such religionism that offers comfort and reason for existence in the absence of material comfort and optimism about the future.



The Dark Wraith wonders if that's how the neo-cons like things in the world they would pose to create and ultimately control.

Fri Jul 21, 12:59:12 AM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

Neither the kids who wrote mean things to Hitler nor the Israeli kids in that photo really have any capacity whatsoever to understand the nature of an enemy or the reasons for war against said enemy; and neither the American kids of World War II nor those little Israeli girls truly grasp the consequences of hatred that defines obsessive militarism.

I understand your point, and that is part of the problem - they don't have to understand it or grasp the consequences of it to be influenced by it. If they grow up in that environment, that is what they are going to beleive in until they can understand it or can grasp the significance. Unfortunately by that time many will have accepted war and hatred without question.

Fri Jul 21, 01:24:30 AM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

"I find it particularly strange that we seem to have a penchant for being involved in one way or another in wiping out the more pro-Western, liberal states of the region."

Not so strange if one presupposes that "we", as presently configured, are not a "pro-Western, liberal" state.

At the risk of overstating my opinion, I believe the United States is being governed by a bunch of kill-crazy, cowardly, war-mongering imbeciles.

Fri Jul 21, 11:44:45 AM EDT  
 BlondeSense Liz blogged...

Oh my goodness. What a great post and great comments. I have to re=read it all a little later.

Question from someone who isn't all that literate in ME studies and I am trying to think of past history with no light bulbs going off... but didn't Hezbollah form as a result of Israeli invasions? Does Israel hold Hezbollah prisoners? Is that why Hezbollah captured 2 soldiers? Someone told me that last night.
And if they take out Hezbollah, won't another militant group form? I mean, why wouldn't it? Or perhaps Hezbollah will get stronger like the Taliban did in Afghanistan after the invasion? That is unless someone gets nuked.

I have no idea what side to be on. I think they all suck ass.

Fri Jul 21, 12:26:46 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

good morning peter of lone tree:

At the risk of overstating my opinion, I believe the United States is being governed by a bunch of kill-crazy, cowardly, war-mongering imbeciles.

you show remarkable restraint. i am unable to express my opinions on that bunch without the extreme profanity of an old sailor.

Fri Jul 21, 12:29:15 PM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

Good evening, Dark Wraith

I'm a long time lurker here. I too feel misgivings about current events in the ME (and won't it be fun if Turkey invades Iraq to attack the Kurds). Everything you said in this essay seems spot on except for this excerpt that intrigues me - the Persian state's nuclear program, which in my judgment is considerably closer to deployment (not 'development'—deployment) of nuclear weapons than most other analysts believe.

I have done a great deal of reading over the decades and barring Tehran's access to AQ Khan's network, I've seen nothing to convince me that your statement regarding Iran's nuclear program is indeed the case. However, I have read a number of your posts over the years and I always find them truthful, thoughtful and well-written, so I must presume you must have seen some things I have not or interpreted them differently. Have you posted a discussion on the evidence for a more developed Iranian nuclear program or if not, would you care to when time permits?

Fri Jul 21, 06:07:37 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Anonymous.

I have only tangentially addressed why my assessment of Iran's nuclear program is so dire, and you are correct: I need to be more direct.

As a predicate to that, I shall summarily explain my position as such. There are, broadly speaking, two different technologies for creating weapons-grade nuclear fuel. The mainstream media focuses almost exclusively on the technology embodied in the P1 and P2 centrifuges by which low-grade uranium is slowly, through cascades of centrifuges, brought to greater and greater enrichment. Even though the much stronger P2 centrifuges can withstand far higher rotational speeds, thereby separating the desired isotope of uranium more quickly, the process with either type of centrifuge is painstakingly slow and requires a very large amount of floor space. Achieving even a modest amount of commercial-grade, reactor-ready fuel at a concentration of roughly 3.5 percent or so takes months once the entire production process has been put in motion and production is stabilized in terms of processs control. To achieve 90 percent purity is a genuinely long period of time from there, and the time frame is not linear, certainly not in the outset months and years: every additional percent of purity is achieved with a disproportionate increase in time and resources. Those cascades and lines of centrifuges have to be pushed and pushed; and until a substantial familiarity (a "learning curve" effect, if you will) is gathered, it's an even longer process as breakdowns and plain old mistakes are made. And keep in mind that every gram of fuel committed to higher enrichment has as one of its important opportunity costs that it is then sacrificed as fuel that could go to a nuclear reactor for power generation purposes.

One interesting side point about this particular technology is that it requires a considerable knowledge set embodied in everything from mechanical engineering to metallurgy to nuclear physics and chemistry. It is, however, relatively safe to the extent that any industrial production process can be described as such, although the extracted fuel, itself, is no trivial issue in handling and transport.

As I noted, however, there is another way to create weapons-grade fuel. It requires a facility no larger than, say, a building that would look like a small office complex—in other words, a nuclear weapons fuel production lab can be hidden in plain sight. More importantly, it would require, once underway, at the very most a couple of years to get the fuel at weapons-grade purity level. It's a technology that has been used before, and it is understood fairly thoroughly. The production process is also far, far more dangerous than the centrifuging route.

And I'm betting you my bottom dollar that Iran is using that technology on a track paralleling the centifuging technology over which the international community and the IAEA inspectors are obsessing.

I shall in the near future explain the technology in a little bit of detail (although not in enough detail to get me rendered to another country or assassinated).



The Dark Wraith looks over his shoulder.

Fri Jul 21, 07:30:29 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Evening Dark Wraith:

There is another wrinkle in the sheets that would not require a weapons development program (although I'm certain they have a vigorous one and are slinging every available resource in that direction). Iran has a large northern border with the Former Soviet Union republics that are solidly Muslim and decidedly unstable. One (again unforeseen, will the NeoCon crowd ever tire of saying nobody could have seen that result coming?) consequence of the Soviet disintegration and economic convulsion was that there were nuclear warheads (and their delivering units) sitting there, gaurded by troops whose pay often reached years of delinquency. The tracking and accounting of those weapons has been spotty to put it mildly. The fastest way for the Iranians to become a nuclear power would be to simply buy it on the black market. Although I seriously doubt that they would have such a weapon and keep quiet about it (nukes are notoriously poor secret weapons, they are a deterent only if they are known to be held) it is something that is well within the realm of possibility.

I also cringe when I hear words coming from Bush's mouth like "It's up to Syria and Iran what happens next." I get all "Haven't you just spent the last few years telling us how evil and crazy these guys are? Now, you're leaving the choice of options open to them? Isn't that sort of, like, stupid?"

Someone should send a short yellow bus by the White House and take these guys all to a ball game or the zoo before they get bored and do some more damage.

Sat Jul 22, 02:04:46 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Minstrel Boy. Thank you for adding some information to the mix.

I shall make two qualifications on what you've noted. First, Israel is a textbook case of a country that has never let it be known that it had nuclear weapons, and yet for years nobody has assumed they didn't. Even before Mordechai Vanunu outed them—a mistake for which the hapless gentleman was captured off the coast of Italy by Israeli agents and dragged back to Israel to be imprisoned for many years—the Jewish state's stockpile was recognized as existing, large, and quite potent. Although Israel has never formally acknowledged that it's a nuclear state, something that might put pressure on it to sign one of those nuisance treaties, it has no incentive to quell the assumption.

Now, about international trafficking in nuclear weapons. There is every possibility that more than a few nukes in former Soviet states are now unaccounted for and possibly already sold to an interested party. However, having one of these nuclear devices is not the same as being able to use it. Even the possibly mythical nukes-in-a-briefcase wouldn't be ready to use right out of the shipping container. I think I can state without exception that nuclear devices are unarmed, and the arming procedure involves, by one means or another (depending upon the era of the weapon), issuing a code, either mechanical or digital. In other words, a nuclear device must be sold with its arming protocol. In at least most cases, the protocol would not have been at the level of the field commander. That's not how the Soviet Union worked. The codes to arm those nukes for firing would have been in Moscow, not in the Soviet states where the weapons were based. And in the absence of that component of the technology of a given weapon, a buyer would have on its hands nothing but a dangerously deteriorating mess of nuclear material, firing structures, and casing of one kind or another.

Weapons trackers for intelligence agencies all over the world do their best to keep an eye on the market for old Soviet nukes, but it's not very easy: although there could be some stupid regional group that would make it known that there was a nuke for sale, much of any such market would be through channels that wouldn't make much echo. As you noted, there are several Islamic states with already-existing ties to Tehran, and a sale could be made through well-worn, very secure means that would put it off the radar of intelligence networks in the Western Hemisphere.

Now, don't get me wrong: I certainly do not discount the possibility that Iran has already obtained one or several nuclear devices. It seems to me that Israel has been doing an awful lot more dancing around with Iran than it ever did with Saddam Hussein's regime when the latter gentleman was having Iraq build the Osirak complex. In that instance, Israel just went in and removed the threat without much evidence of diplomatic, military, or even rhetorical foreplay. This time, there's a whole lot more barking and justifying and propagandizing and kicking other dogs leading up to the grand finale.

In my judgment, that's telling.

Exactly what it's telling, I'm not entirely sure yet, but I'll figure it out... maybe.


The Dark Wraith is getting way too old for these complicated puzzles.

Sat Jul 22, 02:47:07 AM EDT  
 Progressive Traditionalist blogged...

Good morning, Dark Wraith.

The Minstrel Boy brings up an excellent point, and I wish to elaborate on that.

Such sale of nuclear materiel from former Soviet bloc countries are not limited to end product arms. I remember reading a few months back about a couple of hunters in the Ukraine camped out by a barrel in the woods because it provided warmth. Also provided the hunters with some rather nasty radiation sickness. Stuff like that is still floating around out there.

About the arming codes for end product arms, there's always work-arounds. Not certain of this, but my amateur assessment is that by far the majority of these would be mechanical. Redundant safety features are easier to maintain in a mechanical array. Also, in conditions where icing is possible, shorting across a board could prove rather inconvenient. And consider the age of the equipment.

Not sure about the missiles, but the bombs have lockpins, just like a grenade. A mechanical-based lock-out/tag-out procedure appears to me to be the likelihood.

Even were the arming mechanism entirely digital, which I consider highly unlikely, there would still be a mechanical work-around.

Sat Jul 22, 11:35:33 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith:

The old grunt bows to the gunner on this. Since missles and such are truly artillery and all. I agree with your assesment, although the Israeli nuclear arsenal has been common knowledge internationally (truth that dare not speak its name *apologies to Mr. Wilde) since at least four of their weapons were trotted out to the runways before the tide turned during the Yom Kippur war.

It is somehow comforting to know that the institutional paranoia of states like the Soviet Union has lasting benefits to the rest of us.

Could arming and trigger mechanisms be something that might be obtained through the Pakistani or Korean angles? Is it something that might be reverse engineered by a scientist? (I ask that one because while I was an undergrad in Computer Science at ASU one of my classmates was an Iranian who possessed genius of the first order, Mehdi could do base 16 math in his head while I was cursing and hacking my way through a wilderness of migraines)

Late breaking news from the idiotic idiom desk: A picture of eight Israeli tanks motoring through the southern Lebanese countryside has been described as "pinpoint." Have these morons ever really seen a tank? Point? Pin? Mabel, get the smelling salts. . .

Sat Jul 22, 11:53:37 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

"Pinpoint"? "PINPOINT"?!

Dear God. And these are the imbeciles readying the American public for the war about to come.

"The blind leading the lame" no longer seems applicable: we now have the brainless leading the braindead.

I swear, Darwinian natural selection is going to kick in here any time, now.


The Dark Wraith awaits the culling of the herd.

Sat Jul 22, 01:57:23 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, Progressive Traditionalist.

You've brought up good points. I should note that, although Soviet technology was in general not all that awesome in many ways, their mathematicians and other scholars were second to none in the world, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if the keylocking procedures were pretty impressive. Figuring out how to get into one of those nukes might very well not be impossible, especially considering that most of the devices were, as you and I both mention, mechanical. The branch of mathematics that deals in coding had a huge upswing in the 1980s; in fact, I was at a school that was one of the hotbeds of the work until the government came in and told the mathematicians to stop publishing their theoretical research because it was going to end up being used by other countries to make codes our spooks couldn't crack. The thing of it was, though, that everyone knew that some of the Eastern Europeans at the college who were involved in the research were getting their results and ours back to Moscow for use there. Ditto for the Taiwanese students (who were far less likable than the Russians, I might point out). We even had this one really, really creepy-ass guy from The Netherlands: he was a combinatorics jockey, and the stuff he was coming up with left everyone just sort of staring like, "You're not even using paper and pencil to toss these numbers around, are you?"

Like I said, though, that Dutch guy was as creepy as they come. One suit, and he wore it all the time; washed it every few weeks while he showered. Same shirt, same socks, and I don't even want to know the rest of that attire story. Ate two carrots and two slices of brown bread; that was all he ever would eat in any given day. Once had a chance to meet up with a girl from the school; he walked some 15 miles in 10-degree weather (in just that little suit) to hook up with her at a mall. (I later asked him if he scored; he hadn't a clue as to what I was talking about. When I explained to him what I meant, he just stared at me in utter disgust.)

Lord, and students thought I was off-the-wall back then.

Anyway, I did want to point out that I, too, am of the opinion that there's always a work-around. That's what we get from being part of the can-do generation. Heck, we even put guys on the moon in stuff that looked like some complicated 1950s-era boiler room.

That having been said—and noting for the record that I am still obsessively drawn to really complicated puzzles—I shall leave to far bolder, or perhaps more naïve, souls than I the task of fiddling around on the business end of a nuke trying to figure out how to get it to arm itself.

Call me cautious if you will, but the very last thing in the world I would ever want to hear is the warhead of a nuclear missile under me make a "CLICK" sound while I was tinkering around with it.



The Dark Wraith draws the line on risk-taking fun.

Sat Jul 22, 02:22:34 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith:

Not to be a Darwinian wet-blanket or anything but I must point out that war is the worst place for natural selection. Thucydides lamented that very fact while chronicling the Peloponneisian War. He noted that the first 8 years of the conflict killed off the brave, the virtuous, and the compassionate of both sides. Leaving the rest of the war to be conducted by the cowards, opportunists, armchair generals, spineless merchants and their ilk. The ultimate result being that the true winner of the Greek civil conflict was Persia.

I saw too many decent, brave and idealistic youths perish in the boonies alongside me while the Bushes, Quayles, Cheneys, Clintons, Deans, and their comrades in priviledge declined to join us at all, and the craven among us ensured their survival by digging deeply and never rising to fight. We are truly reaping the bitter harvest of that. We have achieved Socrate's nightmare of "battles fought by idiots and policy made by cowards."

The only real use I ever had for cowards in the field was when two of them left their hiding places after the fight and carried my bleeding ass to the MedEvac chopper. It was a hip and leg wound which (luckily for them) prevented my kicking them out of the door at an appropriate height.

Sat Jul 22, 02:48:22 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Cripe, Minstrel Boy, you still had one good leg, didn't you?




The Dark Wraith does understand, though, that you probably couldn't get leverage.

Sat Jul 22, 03:56:11 PM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

In at Rigorous Intuition, Jeff Wells presents the theory that one reason the Israelis are invading Lebanon is because they might be running out of water.

Like a lot of other places on earth.

Sat Jul 22, 05:37:02 PM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

As well, from Joe Cannon at his "Cannonfire" blog:

What is the REAL reason for the war on Lebanon? (UPDATE)

Sat Jul 22, 07:57:17 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith:

While I am not certain for the reasons for the current situation in Lebanon (in that desert water makes about as much sense as anything) I did find an authentic voice on the subject. . . Mazen is a trumpet player and artist who is in Beruit right now, blogging his heart out. . .

KERBLOG

he has asked that links be passed around so that in a worst case scenario he won't go dark without having shouted his warnings to the rest of the world. . .

I invite you all to give him a look and listen. . .before they shut him up too.

Sun Jul 23, 03:09:57 AM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith,

The U.S. cannot afford to literally cripple major parts of Asia Minor, nor can it afford the wrath of China, which would in the event of military action against Iran be financing through its routine, massive purchases of U.S. Treasury instruments the destruction of one of its emerging trading allies in the Shanghai Coöperation Organization.

This would not be the first time a major power played on both sides of a war, bankrolling it so that the orders for war materials and contracts for supplies kept the carpetbaggers rolling in the dough.


Israel similarly has no capacity to fill a vacuum it leaves when it destroys a pestilence, so it guarantees that the most aggressive of remaining pests will rise and dominate the territorial, and then the political, landscape of a country or turf crippled by military action.

yet each time you actually wipe out one pestillence, the next one, fired by the killings, and equiped with new martyrs, is much much worse than the one it replaced.


Yes, that small sense of dread is still barking in the back of my mind.


As it is in mine, the alarms are loud and shrill.

There is one glaring difference between other conflicts between Israel and her neighbors and this one. Right now we have a president that has refused to abide by the nuclear treaties, and is actively trying to expand our nuclear program. In his first term he got a bill through congress that gave him permission to have "tactical bunker buster" type nuclear weapons designed and built, but congress subsequently refused him funding to bring the project forward. thank goodness!


Codpiece is lusting after new nukes. He is willing and even eager to use them.


IMHO that is what's sounding off MY alarms.

Add to that the complete lack of compassion that the leaders of our country exhibit every time there's a disaster anywhere in the world. Tsunami, earthquake, flood - you name it, they ignore it. And, add in their arrogant and outrageous lies as to the safety of disaster sites after the initial danger is over. In both NOLA and Ground Zero they swore the environment was safe for rescue workers, and now those same workers are dying.

I seriously think they want to nuke the mideast and then drill through radioactive glass. Even though bushco was an oilman, I don't see any success in bringing in the well on his resume. He was given those companies so that he could teach Ken Lay how to steal the assets and fleece the stockholders. Does he know or care what a nuke would do to an oilwell? (does anyone?) I've even heard republicans downplay the danger in radioactivity. And anyway - the workers will be untermenchen, and not important in their scheme of things.


Hey, the world is overpopulated anyway...

Sun Jul 23, 09:10:02 AM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

Dark Wraith, the difference this time might be that we (the US of A) have 140,000 troops stuck in a pocket surrounded by hundreds of millions of angry Muslims. Logistical support for those troops runs on a land route through the Shia dominated southern Iraq to Kuwait with a majority Shia population and then by sea through the Persian Gulf which is bordered by the Shia dominated Iran armed with Silkworm missiles.

We could easily find our army cut-off in the middle of Iraq.

The airpower needed to support/relieve our forces might be impaired by depleted inventories of munitions due to useage in Iraq and Afganistan and emergency resupplies sent to Israel.

Mon Jul 24, 02:08:44 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Anonymous.

Few commentators take any note of the point you are making. I cannot recall whether or not I, myself, have pointed it out, but the very thought of that kind of prospective killing box is the stuff of nightmares. It's almost like a tragedy just waiting to happen with those troops and the overwhelming numbers of really angry Muslims surrounding them.

The movie Zulu comes to mind.


The Dark Wraith just cringes at the thought.

Mon Jul 24, 02:33:24 AM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

...and if they did, Georgie Porgie will have the excuse he needs to nuke the whole mideast. I don't know if the world would even have the grounds to object, in that case.

Mon Jul 24, 07:33:03 AM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

"...the very thought of that kind of prospective killing box is the stuff of nightmares."

And if the Brits pull out, doesn't that leave the south "unprotected"?
From today's Guardian:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has held out the prospect that most British troops could leave the country within months. Mr Maliki, in London for talks with Tony Blair, said the handover of the Muthanna province earlier this month was a positive sign and Iraqis were also nearly ready to take charge of security in other areas.

Mon Jul 24, 01:56:32 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, SB Gypsy.

The infantry term "broken arrow" comes to mind.



The Dark Wraith doesn't want to go there even in his nightmares.

Mon Jul 24, 11:07:26 PM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith,

broken arrow

n. [IBM] The error code displayed on line 25 of a 3270 terminal (or a PC emulating a 3270) for various kinds of protocol violations and "unexpected" error conditions (including connection to a down computer). On a PC, simulated with `->/_',
with the two center characters overstruck.

Note: to appreciate this term fully, it helps to know that `broken arrow' is also military jargon for an accident involving nuclear weapons....


But, if you take into consideration the Israeli and American activities before the fact, and add to it that Codpiece wanted to bust up Iraq back in 1999, I'd have to argue that unfortunately it would be no accident.

That would make Codpiece the "beast", IMHO

Wed Jul 26, 10:34:53 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, SB Gypsy.

There's an older meaning for the term 'broken arrow', one that might date even to before Vietnam.

You are correct, though: the term 'broken arrow' is commonly associated with a lost nuclear weapon, usually one that had been slung under a fighter jet that went down. That usage was popularized in the John Travolta movie, Broken Arrow.

Those kinds of broken arrows are another matter entirely and there are many stories of them, most of which are unofficial to the extent that no one knows for sure how many or under what circumstances such broken arrows have actually occurred during the nuclear age.


The Dark Wraith sort of wonders how many were never recovered.

Wed Jul 26, 11:56:07 AM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Good Afternoon, Dark Wraith!

There's an older meaning for the term 'broken arrow', one that might date even to before Vietnam.


OK, I'm biting - cannot leave a misspelled word or one that I don't ken the meaning of...

What's the other usage????


Hmmm, just guessing here...

someone who is out of their mind?
(kinda along the lines of... shooting blanks?)

Fri Jul 28, 04:47:10 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, SB Gypsy.

When the perimeter of your area has been overrun by enemy troops, you call in a broken arrow.

You own air force then comes in and bombs the area.

Because you know what's about to happen, there's a chance you'll survive by hunkering down during the strike.

This was shown some years back in a popular movie about the Vietnam War, but I cannot remember which one it was.

Anyway, it's one way to get rid of a lot of enemy combatants... as well as what remains of the guys who were going to die anyway.


The Dark Wraith does enjoy trivia.

Fri Jul 28, 05:36:05 PM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Dang!!! Makes me wonder if that manoeuver gave rise to all the MIA accounts of guys stuck there all this time.

What a terrible waste of bravery...




God didn't create Hell - he left that for us, and we've excelled beyond expectations.

Tue Aug 01, 04:49:53 PM EDT  

       

Monday, July 17, 2006

Special Blog Post:
Missile Quiz

With war raging in the Middle East, recent news stories have included any number of references to missiles and rockets being used by the combatants. The quiz below tests your knowledge of a few of the many ways that death and destruction are being delivered from the sky to both fighters and civilians in this latest episode in the never-ending story of bloodshed to which humanity is condemned.

Click here to open the Missile Quiz.


Enjoy.

<< 31 Comments Total
 Debra blogged...

I find it hard to believe I used to repair the missile guidance systems on four different rockets in the Army. In 1975 and 1976, but still.

20%. I really haven't been paying attention to this mess, I'm trying not to get into trouble for my position.

Tue Jul 18, 12:12:48 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Debra.

I hope you know that, as is the case in my classroom teaching, these quizzes are primarily not just for a little recreation, but also to provide readers with some additional knowledge about and context for the subject matter.

Getting in trouble for my position seems sometimes to be my lot in life. A couple of days ago, a comment I made on another blog (actually, my comment was a scathing criticism of Hamas, Hizballah, and Israel, all of it in the context of an interview with a shill from Conflict Forums) got me accused of "gross ignorance." I was told to "go educate" myself.

Now that hurt. I mean, really. I was almost unable to eat the rest of the Pepperidge Farms Milano cookie I'd just expropriated from the cupboard in the Faculty Lounge.

Oh well.



The Dark Wraith will continue to promote his gross ignorance.

Tue Jul 18, 12:29:16 AM EDT  
 trailertrash blogged...

40% and didn't even answer number 5, but I'll follow the directive and not go near anything that has a switch and fins.

Tue Jul 18, 12:29:24 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

The world will be a little bit safer for your career decision Trailer Trash.

Unfortunately, I must inform you that you might still qualify for the missile crew in the event that we have to re-institute the draft because we can't find enough qualified volunteers.



The Dark Wraith will be waving from behind the concrete barricade.

Tue Jul 18, 12:33:01 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Evening Dark Wraith:

80%, i misidentified the first offering. . .i saw a CNN broadcast this afternoon that identified that same photo as the katyusha, i'll pass on the missle crew job, but thank you. i prefer closer, more personal combat. it seems somehow, more human. these missles, like the bombs from planes are about as reprehensible as weapons come. i tend to favor the ancient greek and roman ideal. they looked down on those who would use arrows, slings, and javelins as sissies. they wanted their stuff done close in with spear and sword. whether dropping from the sky, rising up out of the ocean or sneaking out of the shadows of the night, i am still grunt infantry in my heart and soul. boots on the ground baby, boots on the ground.

ooooooo-rah.

Tue Jul 18, 01:35:35 AM EDT  
 Progressive Traditionalist blogged...

60%, but I'm still opposed to missiles.
I think I could recognize the Deltas and Atlases much better.

Cool quiz. You are a harsh taskmaster for one so uneducated?
WTF?!?!


Type softly, and carry a spare cookie.

Tue Jul 18, 01:42:31 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

You're giving evidence of your age, there, Progressive Traditionalist.

Sadly, I too fondly remember the days of rockets like the Atlas and its gorgeous child, the Atlas-Centaur. The Agena on top of an Atlas was a beauty, too. But nothing can compare to the majesty of the Saturn V, a monster built exclusively for carrying human payloads and all of the support vehicles and equipment.

I have a story about that. An old friend of mine was a photographer for a major magazine during the first launch of a Saturn V. NASA had set up a special situation room for reporters and photographers around the world so they could have a clear view of the rocket lifting off. This fellow said he was standing there with his Nikon firmly in his hands, surrounded as he was by other press photographers from every corner of the Earth. He said there were many Japanese journalists on hand, all of them with what at the time was the state-of-the-art equipment ready to get the very best photographs of the lift-off. Apparently, many of them had their cameras on tripods and had shutter firing mechanisms that were triggered by loud sound, the assumption being that the launch of the rocket would make it to the situation room at just about the time the vehicle was clearing the tower and then beyond.

What they didn't understand was how the Saturn V and its motors worked: the vehicle was so massive that the engines would literally start pounding away on the launch pad for several seconds before there would be anything remotely resembling discernible upward movement of the craft.

Sure enough, launch control said, "Ignition sequence starts... six... five..."

At about five, the Earth was shaking like the end of the world had arrived. Those engines were cooking, and they were going to push the planet away from that Saturn V if need be.

Yep. The cameras with the sound-triggered shutters started firing away madly, taking picture after picture of the rocket just sitting there nearly disappearing into the smoke billowing up around it from the engine exhaust.

"...two... one... LIFT-OFF! We have lift-off..."

Yes, we had lift-off, and no small number of cameras in that situation room had already snarfed up most or all of their film.

The fellow who told me that story had some absolutely incredible shots he showed me.

That's the same fellow, by the way, who told me a rather interesting story about what's in the handle of the golf club Alan Shepherd used and then left on the moon. Unfortunately, I don't think there's any way that story could be verified—not in my lifetime, anyway. Eventually, someone will retrieve that club and be able to see if there's really something in it. The scandal value will be entirely absent, though, by that time.


The Dark Wraith should probably let by-gone scandals be by-gone scandals.

Tue Jul 18, 02:34:20 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Minstrel Boy.

Speaking from the artillery side of the festivities, it might not be such a bad idea for infantry to be left to its own devices: the occasional call for fire from an excited lieutenant who reads off his own coördinates instead where he wants the fire laid down convinces me of that.


The Dark Wraith should probably not bring this up too often.

Tue Jul 18, 02:37:09 AM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

60% here, but only by reading all the questions before answering any of them. Nice tip with question 5 giving real missle names, but even better test trickery using Qassam twice.

Tue Jul 18, 04:16:52 AM EDT  
 Progressive Traditionalist blogged...

Good morning, Dark Wraith.

They still use the Atlas. The Atlas V is the largest rocket currently in use at Cape Canaveral. I did some work at some of the launch pads for the Deltas & Atlases.

That big plume you see on lift off is steam. The launch pad itself is a grill with water underneath. Huge pumps refill the thing as it burns off.

A big 465,000 gallon spherical tank of liquid oxygen out there. One tiny little "No Smoking" sign.

Lots of rail cars full of helium out there. Don't know what they're for. Asked the guy from Air Liquide, and he didn't know either. Said they had been there for years.

Sorry I forgot my manners earlier. The enclosed is for you to read later in the day. (Good afternoon, Dark Wraith.)

Tue Jul 18, 04:20:34 AM EDT  
 John blogged...

80%

I really shouldn't spend so much time reading blogs/the news.

Tue Jul 18, 08:07:39 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, John.

Yes, 80% would tend to indicate a rather high level of focus, at least on the weaponry side of the conflict.

The rockets and missiles get a lot of play in the media, but less exotic stuff is on parade quite heavily over there, too. Artillery is always good for bringing down a few buildings and killing some people; and of course there's the small arms that are the bread and butter of the light infantry.

Geez, I could write quizzes like this one for all kinds of different classes of weaponry.

I should probably avoid doing that, though: I can just see this blog starting to be popular with a very fiesty kind of Internet crowd.



The Dark Wraith will get the blog's hit numbers up by rather less aggressive means.

Tue Jul 18, 10:51:05 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, Progressive Traditionalist.

I was to some extent aware of the water pit, but I didn't know that it actually keeps water flooding in during a launch. I guess I should have known about the Atlas V still being an active design: I have a vague recollection of one being the launch vehicle for some monster payload not that long ago. I might be mistaken about that, though. I've been trying to keep an eye on the near-Earth orbital delivery vehicles of some of the other countries trying to get into the commercial space race. India just had a rather nasty setback with one of its rockets losing emotional control during staging. India was trying to put a big telecom bird into orbit and show that its capabilities were such that it could sell payload space to companies trying to get hardware into space. Call me a marketing amateur if you want, but it seems to me that having your rocket blow up isn't a good PR thing.


The Dark Wraith suspects that saying, "We meant for that to happen" just won't cut it for damage control.

Tue Jul 18, 11:13:07 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, Mr. Goat.

Yes, there were some helpful, if unstated, suggestions among the questions. I have a feeling the "dead giveaway" hint wasn't all that helpful to some. The point was that the Qassam is a crude technology. As one observer described the thing, it's basically nothing but a giant stick of dynamite with fins and a nose cone. I'll tell you one thing: that launch rail is way too flimsy for my tastes: I have this vision of the thing keeling over during launch and having that stupid missile go twisting around right in the launch area.

I had that happen on more than one occasion during my days in model rocketry. Even a small rocket with nothing particularly dangerous in the payload is awfully scary when it falls over during launch and starts bouncing around and chasing people. I recall one ricocheting off a tree and coming back to visit my fellow rocketeers and me.

Never saw so many kids hit the dirt so fast.


The Dark Wraith started using better launch pad anchoring after that incident.

Tue Jul 18, 11:24:01 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Oh, and by the way, Progressive Traditionalist (and anyone else who's interest), this is the post upon which my subsequent comment got my butt chewed out. I probably should have just let that interview with the fellow from Conflicts Forum slide by; but n-o-o-o, I had to open my yap and get slapped around.

Actually, I'm putting the link here in these comments so I'll have ready reference to it should I ever need to revisit it: it'll be a good reminder that sometimes it's a good idea to keep my pie hole shut.



The Dark Wraith never knows when there's an artillery shell with his name on it waiting for its chance.

Tue Jul 18, 12:13:05 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

Even a small rocket with nothing particularly dangerous in the payload is awfully scary when it falls over during launch and starts bouncing around and chasing people.

I never had that type of failure in my limited number of launches, although I can identify with the affect. Mine was the result of a Qassam like missle launcher and an engine - no rocket body involved. Laid the little motor on a propped up board and hit the ignition button (at night of course). That motor took off like a SOB, made one erractic circuit of the yard, and disappeared to who the hell knows. Never did it again.

That was around the time my grandparents brought the grocery sack full of firecrackers back fom Mexico. Buried in the middle was a small sack of bigger ones. These were probably about 2" to 2 1/2" by at least 1/4". The powder was not rolled tight in the paper; the body was actually hollow with a good dose of loose powder.

The fuse was very short, maybe 1/2", so you had to be quick. Those suckers were loud, very loud, but not quite as good as the M-80s. The flash though, was absolutely tremendous.

The neighbors must have loved us in our youth.

Tue Jul 18, 01:28:49 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith:

Whew! Some people's kids huh? I have been guilty of middle eastern heresy for quite a while. Most of the problems with the conflict that we have today are arising (it's very much the same in Africa too) from British Colonialism. That's right folks, we are paying the price for Britain's policies of a century ago. They still hadn't figured out that the main beneficiaries of colonial expansion were not the people of either the colony or the mother country, but a few chosen business entities (for equation purposes figure East India Tea then = Haliburton now) and the army. In my eight years of active duty service, every single place I went that there were people pissed off enough to be shooting at me was a former European colony (Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Angola, Central African Empire (it became republic right after I left), Lebanon, and Honduras were all, in one way or another, suborned and corrupted by colonialism. I recall reading the reaction of Ibn Saud when he was informed about the British intention to discharge the Palestinian mandate to the Zionists. He asked "Why not give them Germany?" That question was never given an adequate response. Regardless of anyone's position regarding the State of Isreal, there is no denying that it is one more European colony.

Yes, indeed sir, there were many nights where what little respite and sleep I was able to get came from the cover of the big guns. With only a few exceptions, every mistake I saw coming from the firebase continued from mistakes in the field. Pilots and Rocketeers get to make movies. . .grunts and gunners make history.

Tue Jul 18, 01:58:23 PM EDT  
 Progressive Traditionalist blogged...

Good afternoon, Mr Wraith.

Thanks for the link.
I just read through that stuff, and I thought that was pretty weird. Your assessment seemed right on. I like to suspend judgment to see things from different angles, but I quickly get suspicious when someone sees only one thing. At this time, I would prefer to think that this person does not comprehend the magnitude of the term "civilian casualties."

I have been trying to understand the rigidity of the US position toward Israel for some time now, as I am not quite so familiar with the history of it. I haven't been able to find much dealing with the matter from an objective point of view; it's either whole-hearted support or raving conspiracy theories.

I really liked your series on PNAC, which was very informative to me. I had seen their website, and really couldn't make heads or tails out of it. If, one day, you would care to turn your attention to the power structure of the ME and how that structure came into place, I'm sure I would find that to be a very good read. If you have already, please provide a link.

btw, the launch site I described above was where the Atlas III and a couple of the Delta rockets were launched from. I worked on some of the equipment in the control huts (3 of them). A lot of this stuff was obsolete (not a criticism, a statement of fact). Apparently not all of that stuff is updated with equal consideration.

And it's strange how you recognize places once you know your way around. A lot of the time the TV crews are reporting from KSC they're standing right outside of the cafeteria. A really nice cafeteria, but I have to wonder what kind of news they picked up there. Seems they never mention the daily special.

Tue Jul 18, 02:18:47 PM EDT  
 karen m blogged...

I scored a 40%. I thought I remembered the names of the missiles, but I guess not.

"Please don't touch anything that has a switch and fins." Yes, I think people have told me that before...

This whole thing is just frightening and depressing. No heroes, just mean-spirited children (with big honkin' weapons, no less) and their victims.

Tue Jul 18, 02:38:04 PM EDT  
 Dark_Muz blogged...

Good Evening, Dark Wraith-
Sorry for the delay, there was an emergency I had to take care of.

I received and 80%...wow. This quiz was almsot as difficult as your class exams, heh.

Even though knowledge is power, one doesn't have to know much besides how and where to run if one of these babies are coming toward you!

Tue Jul 18, 06:59:40 PM EDT  
 Debra blogged...

I lived on Vandenberg AFB for many years starting in 1968 and the military did not notify anyone when they were going to fire a rocket. My first earthquake was just a curiosity after enduring so many launches.

I used to wander around the back of the base, aah, what an I.D. could do for you in those days.

Tue Jul 18, 08:14:48 PM EDT  
 kablooie blogged...

The only percentages that matter are rocket-to-child mortality ratios.

Care to justify any other calculations? You could simply read the novel CITYCitycity by Jack Kerouac and see what you're not seeing. Yet.

Wed Jul 19, 12:59:31 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, kablooie.

A number of commenters here at The Dark Wraith Forums have seen it first hand.

On another blog some months back, I provided a very technical commentary on the matter of an attack that was intended to kill an al-Qa'ida operative in Pakistan. The attack did, indeed, kill the target as well as others, including family members, among them women and children.

A very angry blogger addressing me modulated between sarcasm and anger. He damned me for not saying in my exposition that people were "blown to bits" (to use his exact words for what I should have said).

Kablooie, although I didn't say as much to him, that fellow's condemnation of me meant nothing because he had no idea what he was talking about.

He had no idea whatsoever.

But you know what? I am so glad he didn't. I am grateful for every person—be he or she a Right-wing war-monger or a Leftist peace-at-all-costs advocate—who doesn't have any clue as to what the horror of war really is.

No, people don't get it from looking at pictures, although they think they do.

No, people don't get it from reading the articles of war correspondents, although they think they do.

No, people don't get it from having friends and family tell them about it, although they think they do.

Yes, seeing pictures, reading stories, and hearing narratives brings people to awareness, provided they're willing to look, see, and read with their souls open; and yes, it is the people who don't entirely get it who will be the very most vocal on both sides of the issue, and so it will be they who commence, drive, and alter policy.

At the end of the day, though, the people who are the swiftest to condemn the warrior are the ones who've never had their souls taken away to Hell and then returned to them so they could live the rest of their lives trying to live with themselves.

Some do a better job than others, kablooie.

For my part, because of my life, I'll be glad when I can slip into the black well of eternity never to feel again.

Until then, I'll just try not to sleep very much: I really don't like what awaits me there.


The Dark Wraith has spoken.

Wed Jul 19, 03:14:27 AM EDT  
 texasshiva blogged...

I'm not at all ready for a missile crew, though I "scored" 80%. I wanted to actually see what EACH one looked like, so I Googled the hell outta the potential answers.

Damn, but these damned quizzes make me learn. I thought I was done with that. :)

Wed Jul 19, 12:02:16 PM EDT  
 Ilex Opaca blogged...

80% on pure guess work. I'm kind of appalled by this high score, really. Interesting quiz, though! I never know what I'm going to find when I visit this site.

Wed Jul 19, 12:41:49 PM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith:

their souls taken away to Hell and then returned to them so they could live the rest of their lives trying to live with themselves.


I'll just try not to sleep very much: I really don't like what awaits me there.



word.

Wed Jul 19, 12:48:52 PM EDT  
 blackdog blogged...

Only 60%, guess I'd better use adult supervision for awhile longer. I tried model rockets too when I was a kid, my major launch problem was a BIG standard poodle named Waldo. He just wanted to check out everything while we were trying to defeat commies. He must have been a KGB plant, but he was really a good 'ol dog. We would wait until he was satisfied and got out of the way. When we found out about sulfur, saltpieter and charcoal, things became interesting. All this in elementary school. I wouldn't even know how or if a pharmicist would sell a kid that now. That kid would have a ticket to Cuba.

Wed Jul 19, 03:35:11 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

All this in elementary school.

You lucky dog, I didn't get to really learn to make things until being a TA in the chem lab in HS (before that was was all tearing apart duds to stockpile the powder). Never was successful with the nitro, but the thermite sure was fun.

Wed Jul 19, 05:31:54 PM EDT  
 konagod blogged...

Good morning Dark Wraith,
60%. Better than I expected. But I relied on gut instinct rather than argumentative analysis with myself which typically results in abject failure.

Thu Jul 20, 10:36:12 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, konagod.

What is it with all these people scoring above 0% on this quiz? I thought, when I was creating it, that people would be lucky to get one right answer, but folks are sort of surprising me.

I suppose it has to do with the fact that pretty much the only people who hang around here are well informed overall. If I were to give this to the average American, I'd be lucky not to see negative scores.

Not that knowing missile names is an indication of general knowledge, though. I could be quizzed on a lot of subjects and come up bupkis on the scoreboard. Having not watched television nor listened to music in at least several years, I wouldn't have a clue about who's who or what's what in the world of entertainment or even sports.

For some reason, that aspect of my general ignorance about popular culture doesn't bother me.


The Dark Wraith should probably find some quick summary to read so he'll look like he knows something about such subjects.

Thu Jul 20, 08:52:43 PM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Good Afternoon Dark Wraith,

Hope you are well and happy.


Regardless of anyone's position regarding the State of Israel, there is no denying that it is one more European colony.

And I always thought it was the 51st state!



40% Wraith, and that was guessing all the way (I must have had some of it seep in subliminally - gosh, I love multiple choice tests)

...and I will gladly stay away from anything that explodes, thank you. heh

When I was a kid, my two older brothers had a six foot pit dug in the back field, unknown to me but discovered and taken care of in secret by my mom.
They exploded all manner of homemade ordinance in there.




...I have had reason in my life to wonder if chemistry is not a dangerous thing to teach teenaged boys

Sat Jul 22, 04:22:31 PM EDT  

       

Sunday, July 16, 2006

Special Graphic Post:
New Bumper Sticker by the Dark Wraith


Above is the latest bumper sticker created by your host here at The Dark Wraith Forums. This one's a beauty if I do say so myself. Maybe no more than a year ago, putting one of my bumper stickers on your car probably would have immediately earned you a set of slashed tires in many parts of the country. Times are different, now: most likely, your tires won't be slashed for at least a couple of days.

Wait...

Okay, I just read this marketing book that said something about not mentioning the downside of your product if you don't have to. I'm not sure what that's all about, but those guys are the experts, so you need to ignore that first paragraph.

Now, below is a graphical layout of all the bumper stickers I've designed and offered over the past year or so. Although the normal cycle I must follow is to pull one down before I offer another, anyone interested can order directly from me (not through the e-store) any bumper sticker in lots of 100 or 250 at a decent discount from the e-store retail price. If you would like to do so, contact me using the Feedback Form, which is always available over in the sidebar. Tell me which one you want (mouseover the desired image, and you'll see the inventory reference number), and specify how many you want to order in increments of 100 or 250. You'll get a quote within 24 hours.

Bumper sticker reference BUMPST50   Bumper sticker reference BUMPST51
Bumper sticker reference BUMPST52   Bumper sticker reference BUMPST53
Bumper sticker reference BUMPST60

Remember, this is a mid-term election year, so bumper stickers are mighty important. You can share them with your friends so they, too, can get their tires slashed by Right-wing thugs.

Wait...

That marketing book says it's not a good idea to mention how the product can bring harm to lots of people.

Lordie. Marketing certainly has its share of nuance.


Consider this an open thread as I gear up for publication later this week of the second article in the Dark Arts Politics series, along with a few other articles, including a rant on education, one of the very most rantable of subjects in my arsenal. (And I have no idea whether or not "rantable" is a word, but it should be. Of course, given that it has now been published here at The Dark Wraith Forums, it is.)


Say what you have to say. Sing praises, complain bitterly, speak obtusely, or bitch excessively. It's all part of a good thread on a quiet night here on the outskirts of civilization on the frontier of the 21st Century. Grab a chair and enjoy the company. In just a few short months, we'll know whether or not the neo-conservatives will rule for another two years with majorities in both houses of Congress, or whether they'll rule for the next two years with Democrats asking if it's really, really safe once again to have a spine. For God's sake, no one say, "BUSH" to them, or they'll vanish into a cloud of wuss-hood like they've been doing for the past six years. (And yes, "wuss-hood" is a word. See the parenthetical exposition above on "rantable" if you don't believe me.)


The Dark Wraith starts up the industrial-sized coffee pot for the evening's festivities.

<< 13 Comments Total
 John blogged...

So Dark Wraith, what do you think cam concievably be done about Hezbollah without starting a third world war?

I don't need coffee to wake people up!

Sun Jul 16, 08:27:48 PM EDT  
 nc gal blogged...

If we had a government that wanted peace, a good first step would be to establish communications with both sides in the conflict.
That may be beyond their capabilities since there is no profit motive.


Any truth to the rumor that Jeb could step up as McCain's VP?
Would John survive the inauguration?

Sun Jul 16, 10:22:26 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, nc gal.

Jeb Bush's star is waning rapidly. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on McCain playing a "national unity" card by tapping Joseph Lieberman to be his running mate if Lieberman loses his Senate seat. I honestly don't think that's as likely as some people think it is, but I might be wrong on that score. However, the fact of matter is that Lieberman's closest friend in the Senate is, and has been for quite some time, John McCain. It seems to me like a natural combination designed to fool people into thinking they can get the best of both worlds—two phony "moderates"—for the low-low price of handing America its ass on a silver platter.


That's how the Dark Wraith sees it, anyway.

Sun Jul 16, 11:44:54 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, John.

Here's my solution, and I'll bet people aren't going to like it one little bit.

As others have suggested, bring Hizballah's leadership into secret dialogue, starting at a reasonably low level, but slowly working up to the top of the political command structure. Provide small, good-faith steps and don't worry if the leadership reneges on any reciprocations it promises.

At the same time, work diligently with the ruling party in Lebanon to bring it into a Camp David type of meeting, along the lines of what came about years ago that pretty much ended decades of tension between Israel and Egypt. Give every indication that Lebanon, too, can reap the rewards that have flowed to Egypt.

Avoid as much as possible allowing either the President of Lebanon or the political leadership of Hizballah to understand the extent and level of diplomatic contacts being engaged with the other party, but at the same time, don't make some big hush-hush secret of the contacts with the Lebanese President and his allies.

The issue with respect to Hizballah is not Israel: the Jewish State is a whipping boy for any militant Islamic organization that wants support among the Islamic equivalent of American rednecks.

The issue with Hizballah in particular, and with Hamas to a lesser extent, is its alliances. We need to peel the militants in Lebanon away from Syria, Iran, Russia, and China. That's no small order; we've allowed all kinds of interests extraordinarily contrary to American interests have a field day, and now we simply must get down to business.

This is why the idea of "wiping out" Hizballah is simply specious: the militant movements throughout the Middle East have some greater or lesser degree of self-styled justification for their bitterness, their violence, and their very existence, but that goes nowhere unless there's a continuing source of fuel.

The good news is that Israel actually wants very badly to pull its horns in, reduce its territory that it must defend, and be left alone. That's what the Ohmert government is all about. If we can get the political leadership of the militant groups in the area to pay attention to us, we can begin a long, slow, painful process of weaning them off the crack of Syria and Iran.

The problem is that a far bigger threat in the long run is the Shanghai Coöperation Organization, to which Iran is trying to attach itself like some big parasite. That mercantilist organization is going to do what's in its best interests, even if what's in its best interests causes theatre wars that sap Western alliances strength, resolve, and resources.

As SCO gets stronger, it will be less and less likely that we can get a handhold on troublemaking organizations like Hizballah, which means we need either to get them into our clutches, if possible, or to wreck them by making it look like they're in bed with us.

If we have to, we must use whatever intelligence resources we have to the end of making the leadership of the radical organizations a target of propaganda coming out of Iran and Syria aiming to appease even more radical elements. That will accomplish one of two things: if the leadership of Hizballah survives, it will be weakened immeasurably; if it doesn't survive, all that will be left (which will be there in scenario one, anyway) is a far more radicalized, militant wing that's easier to target as a terrorist organization that we can pay good money to the center of Lebanese power to extinguish. We were halfway there with the PLO at one time, but we never fed Arafat the money he needed to crush the burgeoning provisionals within al Fatah and the violent splinters that arose to become the nexus of Hamas.

This time, we need to do it right. It will take time, serious money, and a whole lot of subterfuge.

It will also take killing some people; but if we do it right, the blood will be on other people's hands, and we can stand back with a concerned furrow in our brow as that grim business gets handled by those who can do it better than we.


The Dark Wraith will lay off this for a while, now.

Mon Jul 17, 12:28:31 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good evening Dark Wraith:

I have just this evening returned from a gig in Las Vegas. I am happy to report that I escaped with my soul and self-respect reasonably undamaged. While wading through five days of email I found this from an American History professor who taught at the same junior college where I taught strings and audio production. It's thought provoking on the surface (minus some nit-picky little things I'm too tired to get into tonight) so I thought I'd throw it out here to be kicked around...

p.s. love them stickers.

Mon Jul 17, 01:45:43 AM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

G-8 Leaders Work to End Mideast Crisis?

Source here and also here.

* * *

Back room deals?
Rantable wuss-hood?
Or growning a spine - and a pair?


Guidance and/or critique, please.

Mon Jul 17, 03:53:42 AM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

:-(

Ooop...my bad:

Guidance/critique link fixed.

Mon Jul 17, 04:09:03 AM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith,

STRELNA, Russia - The United States and other world leaders reached an accord Sunday on a statement faulting the militant wings of Hezbollah and Hamas for violence that threatens "to plunge the Middle East into chaos," but also called on Israel "to exercise utmost restraint" in its retaliation.


The thing is, Hezbollah and Hamas are just a symptom. Until justice and liberty live in international law, and the law is applied, equally to all, there will be problems.

I have no idea how to get there from here.

Mon Jul 17, 07:45:56 AM EDT  
 The Minstrel Boy blogged...

Good Morning Dark Wraith and friends:

What my previous comment became was an example of trying to post when exhausted. Here is the email which is a post from bookseller:

A Theory
by Bookseller

Alexander Fraser Tytler [Lord Woodhouselee] once wrote:

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largess from the public treasury.

From that time on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the results that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship."

Sounds familiar doesn't it?

Sadly, it does.

Tytler goes on to say:

The average age of the world's great civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith
From spiritual faith to great courage
From courage to liberty
From liberty to abundance
From abundance to selfishness
From selfishness to complacency
From complacency to apathy
From apathy to dependency
From dependency back to bondage.

Here's the corollary I've compiled based on this last quote:

1695-1735: Bondage to Spiritual Faith [Roughly, from the time of the Salem Witch Trials to Jonathan Edward's Great Awakening].

1735-1775: Spiritual Faith to Great Courage [The Great Awakening to the Battle of Lexington, which began the American Revolution].

1775-1815: Great Courage to Liberty [The onset of the American Revolution to the Battle of New Orleans, which ended the War of 1812].

1815-1855: Liberty to Abundance [The so-called "Era of Good Feelings" to the emerging sectionalist crisis between the industrial North and slaveholding South].

1855-1895: Abundance to Selfishness [From Sectionalism to Imperialism].

1895-1935: Selfishness to Complacency [Imperialism to prolonged Total Warfare and Economic Depression].

1935-1975: Complacency to Apathy [World War II to the Nixon-Ford-Carter Malaise].

1975-2015: Apathy to Dependence [The National Malaise to Economic Ruin brought on by the Bush regime].

2015-2055: Dependence to Bondage [Economic Ruin to Wage Slavery in the hands of multinational corporations].

Based on this model, I estimate that our present way of life has less than a decade left of existence. I can only hope that I'm wrong.

Me too, son. Me too.


I am rested now and regrouping rational thoughts...

Mon Jul 17, 11:26:37 AM EDT  
 BlondeSense Liz blogged...

My dear Minstrel Boy. Well that was depressing. Not that I am disputing one bit of it.

Guess I had better start a big ol' corporation this year.

Mon Jul 17, 03:19:02 PM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

Thank you, Wraith.

The favor of a reply is, as always, greatly appreciated.

Wed Jul 19, 12:52:30 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, Moody Blue.

Here's my problem. The current situation in the Middle East has a dynamic that is so obvious to me that I could literally close my eyes and type for 30 minutes, laying out exactly what's going to happen. The particulars of the events on the ground from moment to moment and even from day to day are largely irrelevant to the trajectory and end-point.

Yes, certain members of the G-8 are trying to broker a backroom deal; yes, the Israelis are following a well-worn path of obliterating their potential adversaries at the very level of capacity to carry out the duties, rights, and responsibilities of sovereignty or, in the case of Palestine, future sovereignty; and yes, the Israelis, for doing all of this, are going to leave in place the symbols of the generations-old nemeses in the the Middle East. They never killed Arafat, even though they could have, time and time again, and they'll do the same with Nasrallah or one of several other trouble-making leaders of Hizballah. The whole conflagration will cool down in a while, and the brokers of record will move in, help clean up the mess in Lebanon, and feel like they were the agents of quasi-peace who finally got the guns to stop roaring.

Israel will then negotiate a final border solution with a castrated Mahmoud Abbas in Gaza, relieved as he will be of the overwhelming power that Hamas has had in shaping Palestinian policy toward Israel.

Israel will, in the meantime, establish a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon, probably something about 20 miles wide, up to just south of the Lebanese city of Tyre.

Then we'll see negotiations and playing around with the idea of replacing the Israeli troops with a United Nations peacekeeping force in the security buffer zone. That will go on for some time.

A nervous calm will eventually settle over the region, with hot rhetoric and a relative absence of gunfire. Ultimately, status quo ante will return, with the ante being weaponry poised at enemies everywhere, but relative peace and quiet.

Until the next round.

It's so easy to see.

Now for the problem: something in my gut is telling me that it's not going to play out this way. It's a tiny voice, and I simply cannot put my finger on exactly what's nagging the Hell out of me.

Mind you, there's always background noise, intrigue, and little sparklers of weirdness in these flare-ups in the Middle East. Small mysteries are like a persistent weed that grows on the landscape of deterministic outcomes in politics, and the current crisis has no small share of its oddities.

But I honestly don't think that's what's behind my uncertainty. I don't mind uncertainty: I can always qualify my calls with some ifs, ands, ors, and buts; however, this time, I just cannot lay claim to the well-spring of my concern.

No, it's not Syria. The government in Damascus is relatively weak militarily, and its leadership is not nearly as willing as it would have been a generation ago to engage in full-blown hostilities with Israel; and that government, despite having a mutual defense agreement with Iran, is less than thrilled about having Iran come to its rescue in a show-down with Israel.

And as for Iran—setting aside its constant barrage of anti-Israeli, anti-Semitic propaganda—has no intention of giving Israel a pretext to terminate the Persian state's nuclear program, which in my judgment is considerably closer to deploying (not 'developing'—deploying) nuclear weapons than most other analysts believe.

None of that is what's bothering me. It's something else, and I do not yet know what it is.

I'll figure it out, but I shall likely do so after the whole situation has settled down just the way my better judgment thinks it will come to resolution, temporary as that resolution will be in the grand history of the mania that is the Middle East.



The Dark Wraith does not much care for being off his usual swaggering certitude about how things will work out.

Wed Jul 19, 12:12:01 PM EDT  
 Moody Blue blogged...

None of that is what's bothering me. It's something else, and I do not yet know what it is. DW, 12:12:01 PM

You know I value your input.

I understand, and agree it “seems like” there IS something else. I’m feeling too unsettled about this newest mess in the Middle East -- and especially more so after re-reading:

the article on the Middle East Policy Paper:

A New Strategy for Securing the Realm: Is an ambitious 1996 Middle East Policy Paper. A Clean Break recommended toppling the government of Iraq, "rolling back" Syria and Iran, and "electrifying" support for Israel in the US Congress in exchange for new missile defense contract opportunities. Three of the eight authors have since become prominent policymakers in the U.S. government.

...and:

A Secret Blueprint for US global domination reveals that President Bush and his cabinet were planning a premeditated attack on Iraq to secure 'regime change' even before he took power in January 2001.[...]

The plan shows Bush's cabinet intended to take military control of the Gulf region whether or not Saddam Hussein was in power. It says: 'The United States has for decades sought to play a more permanent role in Gulf regional security. While the unresolved conflict with Iraq provides the immediate justification, the need for a substantial American force presence in the Gulf transcends the issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein.'


...I’m left feeling a whole LOT more apprehensive?

The Dark Wraith does not much care for being off his usual swaggering certitude about how things will work out.

You’re allowed. When the inmates are running the asylum, it’s certainly understandable.

May I pour you a Tequila Sunrise??

;-)

Wed Jul 19, 04:29:06 PM EDT  

       

Saturday, July 15, 2006

Special Blog Post:
An Open Letter to NARAL Pro-Choice America

To the President of NARAL Pro-Choice America:

According to the Endorsed Candidates Webpage of NARAL Pro-Choice America, your organization has endorsed incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman for the United States Senate in his race against challenger Ned Lamont for the Democratic nomination in Connecticut. Although I shall not make a counter-endorsement here principally because I have yet to determine to my own satisfaction the qualifications of Mr. Lamont to serve as a United States Senator, I must criticize your decision to endorse of Mr. Lieberman, given the mission of your organization.

According to a post at Pam's House Blend, NARAL Pro-Choice America has stated, "[Mr. Lieberman] since clarified his position, to our satisfaction" with respect to several matters, including his vote for cloture to prevent a filibuster of the Senate vote on the appointment of Judge Samuel Alito as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court and his support of hospitals that refuse to provide morning-after contraception to rape victims.

Although such may exist and be widely known, I can find precious little reference in the way of clarifications that Mr. Lieberman is supposed to have made on the aforementioned matters; however, whether or not Mr. Lieberman made such clarifications—and in particular, whether or not he made them to representatives of NARAL Pro-Choice America—is irrelevant.

In the case of the Alito nomination, any statement he would have made after his vote is moot: he cast his vote, he did so with full knowledge of the opposition of his constituent base, and the consequence of his vote is that a jurist with radical views far outside the mainstream of public opinion and judicial review now sits on the bench of the highest court in the land, able as he now is to affect the political, social, and economic landscape of this nation for generations to come. As I made clear in a letter I sent to the Democrats in the U.S. Senate, and which I republished here, the vote on Samuel Alito was a defining moment not just for America, but for the United States Senators in office at that momentous occasion.

Many if not most votes that a Senator makes can be mitigated, at least to some extent, after the fact. A Senator can come to understand the error in judgment or can seek to create a political smokescreen by approving in principle but not in subsequent funding some piece of legislation. Even in a matter as grave as authorizing military action against Iraq, a Senator can diminish the shameful fact of his or her favorable vote in subsequent condemnation of the war and the lies that led to the catastrophically wrongful vote. This is not to say that a Senator should be forgiven for the initial vote; but retrospective and introspective contrition can be demonstrated by forthright and firm resolve in subsequent votes on the matter.

Such is not the case with a Senator's vote to end a filibuster on a radical Supreme Court nominee. Nothing can be done to repair the damage of the action, and no amount of "clarification" will alter the trajectory of American jurisprudence at its highest level arising from such a damnable act. That you believe Mr. Lieberman can somehow repair the wide-ranging, inter-generational consequences of his cowardice belies a fundamental lack of understanding of just how grave, decisive, and permanent Mr. Lieberman's vote was on that melancholy day of January 30, 2006.

Now, concerning Mr. Lieberman's statement about "conscience" rights of medical service providers, he demonstrated a fundamental blindness to the essential and foundational nature of objectivity in the dispensation of the results of science. Mr. Lieberman does not grasp that public policy cannot be formed on the parochial interests of a handful of common carriers of medications and procedures; in fact, public policy must stand firm against any and all selective medical care delivery, and it must do so precisely because the individual seeking care is asymmetrically at permanent disadvantage in relationships with doctors, hospitals, and even to some extent pharmacies. This is the nature of what is called "fiduciary duty," which is robust to sentiments, opinions, and provincial judgments of those accepting such duty.

If Mr. Lieberman spoke to NARAL Pro-Choice America officials and satisfied their concerns, that's all well and good; but NARAL Pro-Choice America is not the gatekeeper to public trust. Private citizens render judgments with the advice—which we hope is sound—of other individuals, private organizations, and public entities and their responsible representatives. However, no such body external to the individual has any business attempting to secure the trust of information consumers by simply stating that it has received in confidence information to which its constituents are not a party.

NARAL Pro-Choice America might be satisfied, but that has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not I am, and NARAL Pro-Choice America diminishes itself markedly by anticipating otherwise. More importantly, NARAL Pro-Choice America calls into wide-ranging question the judgment in more fundamental assertions, representations, and statements it makes if it is of such a mind that it can in secret discuss matters affecting others' lives in the absence of persistent and thorough transparency.

Your endorsement of Mr. Lieberman renders evidence that NARAL Pro-Choice America is nothing more than a consummate Washington insider, an organization that finds quarter wholly and without concern in its configuration and closeness to the power structure within the Beltway. In the 21st Century, progressive causes will not be won there: what little remains salvageable in this degraded era will be won in street-level political operations arising from the grassroots, a territory NARAL Pro-Choice America has not visited in a long time, standing as it has on press releases the mainstream media barely notices, lobbying that has not prevented the erosion of a woman's right to choose, and the altogether useless mantra that "It's the law of the land—end of discussion" that now proves to have been a bureaucratic apology that became a death trap for the pro-choice forces.

The fight for privacy rights moves on into the grim, year-by-year, election-by-election, vote-by-vote battles across the land. The fight moves on, and it moves on past NARAL Pro-Choice America.



The Dark Wraith has spoken.

<< 15 Comments Total
 Dark_Muz blogged...

Good evening once again, Dark Wraith-
Now as a member of MoveOn and Planned Parenthood,I have been receiving some comments of Mr. Lierberman. Not only am I outraged by his support of Alito and hospitals not providing emergency contraceptives, I've also been against his actions against practically any true liberal. The most recent being support against the Democrats and their exit plan of Iraq.
Not only is this man "Bush's favorite Democrat", but he's everything the true blue hearted liberal is against. All I can say is, "Sock it to him, Lamont!"

Sat Jul 15, 01:02:57 AM EDT  
 The Fat Lady Sings blogged...

I must say I am at a loss as to why NARAL threw their support to Lieberman. It smacks of a deal; and when I think deal, my minds eye pictures Tammany Hall politicking - and that's a bad deal no matter who lights the cigars. I don't know much about Lamont. I am not enamored of the band-wagon support he has been getting from Daily Kos and its spin-offs; but there are several bloggers whose opinion I greatly respect that whole-heartedly support his candidacy. It makes me wonder if NARAL did all of its homework on this - or just the math?

Sat Jul 15, 02:40:17 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Dark Muz.

Although, as I stated, I have yet to become comfortable with Mr. Lamont's untested ability to handle the responsibilities of being a United States Senator, I am thoroughly unconvinced of Mr. Lieberman's ability to be a reliable representative of progressivism in either its broad or detailed form.

However, I see a powerful coälition of wealthy and "connected" individuals and organization suddenly and quite concertedly coming to Mr. Lieberman's side, and this bodes very ill for his challenger.

NARAL Pro-choice America is looking more and more like part of the inside-the-Beltway, we-need-our-invitation-to-the-party crowd that's been letting the Republican neo-cons overrun Washington. Although I am every bit the moderate who believes in the backroom deal and the separation of firey rhetoric from private friendships, those thugs running Washington are not in any way, shape, or form the kind to be trusted or befriended. They just aren't.

Joe Lieberman goes along to get along; and the result is an America slipping into an unrecoverable mess. For NARAL to think for a minute that Lieberman is part of the solution renders evidence that NARAL is, itself, no longer part of the solution.

The bad part of that is the next question: 'So if not NARAL, who then will stand up for the reproductive rights of women?'

The answer to that question is as unfortunate as it is obvious: 'We shall.'



The Dark Wraith doesn't know, however, whether or not that's a viable solution.

Sat Jul 15, 03:17:31 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Fat Lady Sings.

It seems to me that the math is driving NARAL's decision. As I just noted in my comment to Dark Muz, heavy-heavy guns are now swirling toward Lieberman's defense, and that means money, and that means good odds that he'll win.

I agree with you about the giant soufflé graffiti blogs: they turn me off when they find cause. I get very suspicious whenever I see a frenzy being whipped up, either on the Right or the Left. I'm trying to ignore that factor and assess Lamont on the basis of the man, himself, absent the bandwagon. I was painfully unimpressed with him at first, but I've seen more than a little campaigning maturity setting in, and I suspect that at least some of my initial discomfort was because he was very new to the campaigning game. It still worries me that voters and even activists don't understand the scope of the risk involved in putting someone completely new to Washington into the major leagues: the United States Senate is a very bad place for beginners to start playing professional league Knives & Grenades.

Given that this whole battle is raging in a state in which I will not vote, I could simply take the position that I've got no dog in the fight; but the fact of the matter is that I do, and so does everyone else.

I suppose, at the end of the day, I have to support someone, although I still reserve the right to endorse the candidate named "To heck with the lot of 'em."



The Dark Wraith is sure that guy will be on the ballot somewhere.

Sat Jul 15, 03:31:12 AM EDT  
 dread pirate roberts blogged...

happy saturday dw,

in a somewhat parallel situation here in wa state, the democratic challenger to incumbent democrat senator maria cantwell, basing his campaign on objection to her support of the war, has bowed out in her favor. hard to know what principle is involved, as he has accepted a job on her campaing staff.....at 8k$ per month. let's hope lamont's bux shore up his principles.

about lieberman, and lamont's lack of experience: i say better an untested guy than joe, who has failed so many tests.

i agree with your assessment of naral as a bunch of insiders. they didn't even explain what joe cleared up for them.

roger

Sat Jul 15, 10:35:04 AM EDT  
 oldwhitelady blogged...

Good, and to the point, article! It's hard to understand why they would decide to support Lieberman. As DPR indicated, why not go with the untested guy since we know Lieberman's heart is with the current Republican s.

Sat Jul 15, 12:55:47 PM EDT  
 isabelita blogged...

We have supported NARAL for years. I will not do so any more. I have also heard that the Human Rights Campaign has endorsed candidates who do not support the HRC's supposed mission, but have not found specific information to back this up.
Gotta be about the money, and the caving in, and the lack of courage, as in so many Democrtat, to keep up the battle.

Sat Jul 15, 01:47:57 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good afternoon, isabelita.

With respect to the HRC, it seems to me that the most telling sign will be the extent to which the organization aligns itself with Hillary Clinton for 2008.

My betting is that it will attach itself like Velcro. I might be wrong, but we'll just have to wait and see.


The Dark Wraith thinks the politics of 2008 will be most interesting... and maybe even fun.

Sat Jul 15, 01:59:57 PM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

I was originally going to post this on your "Hillary Rant" post, but it's pretty far down in the blog:

"ROGERS, Ark., July 15 — Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, returning to her red-state ties, chastised Democrats Saturday for taking on issues that arouse conservatives and turn out Republican voters rather than finding consensus on mainstream subjects. Without mentioning specific subjects like gay marriage, Mrs. Clinton said: “We do things that are controversial. We do things that try to inflame their base.”

More at Clinton, in Arkansas, Says Democrats Are 'Wasting Time'

And a final not-so-rhetorical question: Are both the Democrats and Republicans trying to lose coming elections? Somebody somewhere was asking, "Who the hell wants to inherit the hideous, decayed, rotten shitmess the neo-conservatives have created in the last six years"?

Sun Jul 16, 10:12:13 AM EDT  
 t rogers blogged...

Top'O'the morn, PeterofLoneTree, and a sincere "here, here"; I couldn't agree more. As in 'supernova grade hot potato'. The Dems have done damage control for a few election cycles now. Hillary probably would run for Pres. in the midst of nuclear winter, but others may be hesitant to wield a mop that friggin' big.

Sun Jul 16, 10:51:35 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

'We do things that try to inflame their base'?!



'WE do things that try to inflame THEIR base'?!!




The Dark Wraith reaches for his nitro pills.
[Anyone got a spare oxygen bottle handy?]

Sun Jul 16, 01:04:30 PM EDT  
 Wild Clover blogged...

Good afternoon all...

Hillary has it wrong. It is the Republican/religious leadership that decides what inflames their base, since their base consists of flaming idiots, it is easy enough to manufacture something to get them outraged. It is the job of all good Americans, good Christians, good pagans, good Jews, good Muslims, Buddista, Athiests, Agnostics and followers of the Great Spaghetti Monster to find ways toward peace, health, and happiness for ALL. If a politician wishes to claim to be 1) a Christian, and 2) a Democrat, then they need to work toward a fair and equitable land for all. Fear of "inflaming" a base that consists of less than a third of the voters, as well as those voters who will be manipulated by their masters ANYWAY, no matter what a progressive does or does not do is a sign of such moral cowardness that words fail me. Moral and personal cowardness-fear that by taking any kind of stand, the RW nut jobs will attack and you will be "blamed" because you took a stand. Yet they are going to do it anyway-they will turn a non-stance into "secret suport" for immorality, twist the most innocuous of statements into crimes against the RWNJA, and otherwise make shit up if that's what it takes.

If you're gonna hang for stealing a goose whether or not you are guilty, take the damn goose, and feed a few hungry folks on your way to the gallows...in that case, those hungry folk you fed might just get your back and save your ass. Hey, it worked for Robin Hood.

Okay, it is now official...if Hillary gets the Dem nomination I throw my vote away. I cannot vote for her, and of possible repugs I could maybe vote for, none of them will be running. No way can someone this cowardly clean up the mess Bushco and his enablers have made....gee, it might inflame someone.

I'm so pissed I am glad there is no chance of me seeing her in person anytime soon- I'd get jailed for (verbal) assault.