Webb Wins Virginia, Dems Take the U.S. Senate
Saying, "The Bible teaches us there is a time and place for everything, and today I called and congratulated Jim Webb and his team for their victory," Republican Senator George Allen this afternoon conceded to Democratic challenger Jim Webb in the November 7 election for a U.S. Senate seat from the Commonwealth of Virginia. With 49 Democratic Senators and two Independents who will caucus with them, the Democratic Party will control the United States Senate, as well as the House of Representatives, when the 110th Congress convenes in January 2007.
UPDATE 2, November 8, 2006 at 9:06 p.m. EST:
NBC has now projected Democrat Jim Webb the winner over Republican incumbent George Allen in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
UPDATE 1, November 8, 2006 at 6:24 p.m. EST:
As of 6:19 p.m. on November 8, 2006, the Commonwealth of Virginia is reporting the following unofficial results (including 2,364 write-ins not shown in the table that follows):
| Candidate | Votes Tallied |
| Webb (D) | 1,173,755 votes |
| Allen (R) | 1,166,408 votes |
| Parker (O) | 26,226 votes |
| Total | 2,368,753 votes |
While Democratic Senate candidate Jim Webb has declared himself the winner in the tight race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia currently held by his opponent, George Allen, most mainstream media outlets have so far declined to declare him the victor. Based upon publicly available voting results, I am now projecting that Mr. Webb is, indeed, the winner because an insufficient number of votes remain untallied for George Allen to overcome Webb's lead even if Allen were to get every single one of them. This projection must be qualified by two disclaimers: first, it is possible that some uncounted absentee and/or provisional ballots are not being reported in the percentages by CNN.com and other media outlets; second, little doubt exists that George Allen will demand a recount based upon the knife-edge difference of fewer than 7,000 votes separating him from Mr. Webb.
According to the Virginia Senate race tallies at CNN.com as of 4:35 p.m. EST, here are the Virginia voting results with 99% of precincts reporting:
| Candidate | Votes Tallied |
| Webb (D) | 1,169,688 votes |
| Allen (R) | 1,162,908 votes |
| Parker (O) | 26,056 votes |
| Total | 2,358,652 votes |
According to the county-by-county breakdown, only one county, Isle of Wight, in Virginia does not have 100% of its precincts reporting; in Isle of Wight, 8% of the precincts had not reported results as of the latest update from that county at 2:48 a.m. EST this morning. With 92% of the precincts reporting, these are the results for Isle of Wight:
| Candidate | Votes Tallied |
| Webb (D) | 5,050 votes |
| Allen (R) | 6,984 votes |
| Parker (O) | 144 votes |
| Total | 12,178 votes |
Assuming that precincts in Isle of Wight have roughly equal numbers of voters (and even if the county were somehow extraordinary in having huge variations in numbers of voters in different precincts, the essential conclusion would hold), I can project an approximate total number of votes when 100% of the county's precincts have reported: 12,178 ÷ 0.92 = 13,237 total votes in Isle of Wight to be cast, of which 12,178 have already been counted. That means 1,059 votes (13,237 — 12,178) have yet to be counted. From the first table in this article, Allen trails Webb by 6,780 votes, which mean that, even if George Allen were to get every one of the 1,059 votes still to be tallied in Isle of Wight, he would not overcome Jim Webb's lead.
That makes Webb the winner of the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, and that means the Democrats take majority control of the United States Senate.
The Dark Wraith will update this article if errors in tallies reported are found; otherwise, the congressional Republicans, as well as the President, are now certifiable dog meat.
Published 11/08/2006 04:50:00 PM
<< 27 Comments Total
That makes Webb the winner of the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, and that means the Democrats take majority control of the United States Senate.
I suppose, if you call Lieberman a Democrat. Haha
Yes, Mr. Goat, 'haha'.
A-hem.
The Dark Wraith for the time being is trying to politely ignore that stink weed parked in the middle of the petunia patch.
Here's an interesting question to consider - what are the differences between exit polls and votes in Virginia, and how do they compare to other races around the country?
From what I've seen, most seem fairly fair - but Montana and Virginia have strange discrepencies, towards (surprise, surprise) teh Republican side...
The Commonwealth's official unofficial results (unfiltered or appended by CNN), updated every two minutes, are available here: http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm
These show fewer precincts reporting, though a consistent 6000-7000 gap in raw votes follows the trends from today.
I agree that Webb will likely win. Hopefully, any subsequent recount will either show few anomalies, or anomalies skewing the currently reported totals in favor of Allen, thus increasing Webb's totals after the verification process.
That Webb's election will have occurred concurrent with the passage of a state constitutional amendment banning gay marriage speaks volumes of the disaffection of moderates and independents with the current power structure. It makes a mama proud.
And Diebold couldn't "have taken care of" that 7000 vote differential? Hmm. Seems as if as the power of the democratic process increases, the power of the corrupters decreases.
And Nancy having lunch with George! Wonder who...make that "what" they had for lunch.
And Rumsfeld playing the patsy...er, uh, resigning. What a noble gesture!
"Ya' can't make a silk purse out of a sow's asshole". -- Alfred Joe's Boy
Good evening,all. From what I've read, some of the righty bloggers have let Allen know that a recount would be bad form, old chap. As one person said, with a recount, a 1 day election turns into a 3 or 4 week one, giving vested interests lots more time to root out the people behind the vote-suppression hi-jinks.
I pictured Lieberman's face on a stink weed plant amidst petunias. Now that's funny!
Is anyone seriously surprised at Rumdumbs resignation? Not I, said the stinkweed.
DW,
I'm pretty sure that you could be jailed or at least hollered at badly by the ASPCA or even PETA to even think of allowing dogs to eat Republicans. That's horrible cruelty to animals.
Good evening, Father Tyme.
I do have to be rather on the proper side right now. If you go soon, you'll see that the Washington Post has this article listed in the top three on the sidebar of its latest article about the Senate race in Virginia.
So please, the only dog allowed in this hotel for the duration is blackdog. He's promised to bite any Republicans who wander in off the street looking for a change of political parties.
Not that we won't accept turncoats, mind you; it's just that we have to make sure they really want to change.
The Dark Wraith is thinking about starting a rehab camp for recovering Republicans.
Good evening, t rogers.
You won't catch me being surprised by Rumsfeld's resignation.
I'm betting that he won't be the the only big dog last seen leaving town in a late-model huff.
The Dark Wraith will hold off for a while on making a prediction.
Good evening, Kiosan.
I suspect the disaffection factor is going to rise. As much as I share the disappointment about the wide-spread approval of bans on gay marriage or even civil unions, I strongly suspect that what we're really seeing is an artifact of what's been rather than what is to come; and what is to come will arrive more quickly than most would believe.
It is, however, going to take a lot of pushing; it won't happen on its own.
But it will happen if we all push together.
The Dark Wraith is being so darned optimistic these days that it almost makes him want to barf.
Good evening, Phoenician.
Funny you should mention that. I, too, saw really annoying divergences in those states between exit and flash polls and the results that were coming in. It's to the point now where I simply cannot use exit polling data for any purpose whatsoever related to projecting winners. It's unfortunate, too, since that used to be a powerful and reliable tool. But these days? Not a chance I'd use that kind of data from any state, even though most came through with good reliability this time.
You might have noticed that in my predication that Webb had won (which, I should point out, occurred several hours before mainstream media started coming to the same call), I did not use exit polling information at all: it was a purely mathematical analysis. It looks to me like that's what the mainstream media did, too; they waited until it was a mathematical near-certainty that Webb had won before they made the call, even though exit polling data would have allowed the call to be made the same way much earlier.
The Dark Wraith longs for the old days.
Not a chance I'd use that kind of data from any state, even though most came through with good reliability this time.
Yeah, but check out this post
http://ezraklein.typepad.com/blog/2006/11/testing_the_exi.html#comments
I find it... interesting... that Montana and Virginia were so out there. Those two states are also noted as being the ones to bugger if you wanted to swing the Senate race.
I think it would be a very good idea for the Democrats to concentrate on cleaning up that mess - ensure everyone who is eligible to vote can, and is counted.
Good evening, once again, Phoenician.
I am, in fact, planning to address precisely this matter in an up-coming article. I have what might be considered a somewhat unique suggestion that I would like to get into the debate stream, even though I'm fairly certain it will get shot down before it even pulls out onto the runway.
Although I am a technologist through-and-through, I have no use whatsoever for technology that is forced upon a situation by those who are utterly clueless about the extraordinary complications of such technology. It is a prescription for a disaster/fiasco combo, and it happens solely because someone without a clue says that dreadful, excited sentence, "Hey, I've got a great idea!"
The Dark Wraith wishes everyone would run away screaming when those words are uttered, especially by politicians.
it happens solely because someone without a clue says that dreadful, excited sentence, "Hey, I've got a great idea!"
"Better to meet a bear robbed of her cubs than a fool in his folly."
- Proverbs 17:12 (New International Version)
- oddjob
Disturbingly applicable, OddJob.
The Dark Wraith didn't know they even had computer technology neophytes around back then.
Hello Friends and Fellow Countrymen - just wanted to drop by and gloat with you. :) This has been a long time coming and it didn't come easy. I know I busted my ass doing everything I could to bring down the republicans. And dear God we cannot let the democrats waste this opportunity to force some accountability, to roll back unconstitutional legislation, and to institute modern safeguards (with well defined language - so the thugs cannot get away with terms such as "alternative means of interrogation), and more...
As for Allen - didja consider that they may not want a recount because it could potentially expose massive republican voter fraud. I mean, perhaps the racist basturd actually lost by lots more.....?
The Dark Wraith didn't know they even had computer technology neophytes around back then.
I guess it just goes to show you that assholes have always been assholes.
- oddjob
I mean, perhaps the racist basturd actually lost by lots more.....?
You aren't the first online commenter who has suggested that.
It wouldn't surprise me at all.
- oddjob
Speaking of votes, this makes a good read Voting in the absence of Choice
it happens solely because someone without a clue says that dreadful, excited sentence, "Hey, I've got a great idea!"
Well, I may not have a clue, but my great idea for election reform sorta revolves around this new fangled technology involving dried wood pulp, ink, and manual counts under observation.
It's possible the US may find examples elsewhere of successful pilot projects of this radical idea if it looks hard enough.
DW,
A hypothetical:
Since Cheney has been basically rebuked by Bush and made to look sort of like a non-entity, can we expect retribution by the man who masterminded 9/11?
I wonder what odds Las Vegas would give on Bush finishing his presidency sans health problems?
Good afternoon, Father Tyme.
To bring an old friend back to loyalty, you do not beat him; instead, you beat your enemies in front of him.
The Dark Wraith encourages the Democrats to be nothing less than vigilant (unlike several now-deceased progressive politicians were).
"The Dark Wraith will hold off for a while on making a prediction."
Mike Whitney isn't holding back. His essay Bush’s Chernobyl Economy; hard times are on the way begins:
"In the next few months, a financial crisis will arise somewhere in the world which will jolt the American economy and trigger a swift and precipitous decline in the value of the dollar.
"This is not speculation; it will happen and there is nothing that the Bush administration can do to stop it.
"All of the traditional supports for the dollar have been removed by a shrinking economy, a massive $800 billion account deficit, dramatic increases in the money supply, and the reckless manipulation of interest rates."
His closing comment particularly caught my eye:
"Hard times are on the way; only this time it’ll be detention centers instead of soup kitchens."
Good evening, Peter of Lone Tree.
A very bad economic crisis is, indeed, looming; but it won't happen in the time frame described in that article. It's a few years down the road.
However, we will feel rumblings and rather disturbing tremors in the coming months, and they'll be strong enough to elicit "What the heck was that?" sorts of reactions. We'll then have the usual assortment of media pundits and some politicians explaining that it was just the Boom-Boom gods moving the furniture around in Heaven, or some other such explanation that will help people make sense of it all.
The really bad part of the crisis will begin to come down in the period following, say, 2010, when a whole lot of economic and financial forces finally converge in time as something approaching a "perfect storm," although I'm not going to tell you that they'll all converge in such a way that the very worst case scenario happens. If the peaks of the crises miss each other by even a few months, the situation will be bad, but not as bad as it could have been.
Do people in the government know about all of this? Yes, of course they do—all of them except for the head-in-the-sand Right-wingers, who can't get their minds around the fact that it is they and their staggering incompetence who will have brought it about. The signs are all over the walls, and even the Treasury Department has put together frightening projections for the early years of the second decade of this century.
How did the head of the Treasury Department deal with this bad news? He ordered all one thousand copies of the report that had been printed for the media destroyed.
Sweet.
Here's an old saying:
There's nothing in the darkness that isn't there when the lights are on.
Here's the neo-con version of that old saying:
There's nothing in the darkness that can't be ignored when your head is up your butt.
The Dark Wraith suspects the neoconnies' version isn't going to work out so well in the end, though.
DW,
"..There's nothing in the darkness that isn't there when the lights are on.."
That includes a flight of stairs going down.
Where's that damn flashlight?
There's nothing in the darkness that isn't there when the lights are on.
Not necessarily. Blindness, doubt, fear; these often are present in the the dark where they are not present when there is light.
There is a reason that the malevolent prefer that their intended victims live in the dark.
wahooo maybe, I think, well I hope. Ok after these past 6yrs not sure.
I give Dean most of the credit..he made sure the grassroots efforts were acknowledged. None of Emanuel's proteges made it. Not that I wasn't rooting for them, but look at the money he had invested in those people for naught. I was actually surprised Duckworth as unable to get elected. And very angry Hastert was reelected..idjut!
And can you believe it a bunch of Dem. judges were elected in TX..please join me in congratulating my sons on their (first time) voting for those judges!