Special Blog Post:
Open Thread and Miscellaneous Matters
Other side work includes the addition of an add rate card in the sidebar. That separate Webpage will show up tomorrow night, along with a brief informational post about it. Several matters have prompted this. First, I was going back through very early posts from this blog and found that, long after the articles had sunsetted, spammers had gone in and put all manner of ridiculous ads in the comments: everything from promotions of stocks to links to pornographic Websites. In the past, the stock promotions I have usually managed by sending formal letters to securities regulators; I have almost always dealt with the pornography ads by using an old method of Internet punishment directed to the pornographers' sites. (And this doesn't mean I'm in favor of censorship of any kind; it means, quite simply, that I have no interest in promoting an art form that involves women trying to look behind them to see what's making them pretend to be in agony and men who've had one too many genetic therapy sessions involving horse genes).
Not anymore. The ad rate card will provide the legal notification so that ads placed without permission will be billed at a special rate for the time in 24 hour increments that they're viewable until I find and delete them. These rates will apply to any ads placed without permission after the ad rates notice is posted. And I will take collection of the bills quite seriously.
More generally, the ad rate card marks a passage of this Website complex. Until now, most advertisers have had their ads placed here with agreements that ad revenue I earn comes from sales made by "click-throughs." That type of agreement is almost always to the clear advantage of the advertiser, since very few visitors to any Websiteand this is especially true for a Weblogclick on ads and purchase products, particularly in the time frame in which the affiliate cookie in the buyer's computer ensures that a sales commission will be paid to the owner of the Website. Advertisers get company, brand, and/or product exposure, but a Website owner in a commission-based affiliate program gets little more than a chunk of his or her cyberspace real estate taken over, along with a noticeable increase in page loading time because of the ad graphics. Once the ad rate card is posted, most of the advertisements in the sidebar will be removed and replaced, as agreements are made, with ads by companies that pay flat rates. Oh, yes, the Webmaster also has to expend time on ad rotations, editorial oversight of content, and related matters.
Enough with the commission-based affiliate programs, their breathless but usually worthless bonus incentive plans, their frequent lapses in renewing graphic content, their blinky-blink ads, their spyware that has to be peeled out of their ad code, and/or their rather curious lack of grasp that the Internet is more than just a passing fad that every retailer has to do but that only a few companies will really ever need to embed as a central feature in their business models.
Eliminating advertisers from this Website is not the goal; it is, instead, to move from commission-based ads to paying advertisers; but the types of advertisers will remain the same: there will be no ads for pornography or for dating services, no penny stock deals, no severely high-risk investment schemes (I've pushed that rule too far, I think, with one of the advertisers over in the sidebar right now), and no ads for stupid things (unless they're really interesting stupid things).
There will be a few exceptions to what is otherwise going to be a major, fundamental overhaul of advertising here. For one thing, advertisements from charitable organizations and causes will be featured from time to time as requests are made and editorial approval is granted. That's not sentimentalism; it's good business.
Also, a few legacy advertisers from this current era of The Dark Wraith Forums will be retained for a couple of reasons. As noted above, commission-based advertisements almost always work to the advantage of the advertiser; however, when the advertiser is very well recognized and perceived favorably by consumers, the association of the Website with that company confers a degree of legitimacy upon the site, itself. Moreoverand taking the business decisions to a somewhat more personal levelmany legitimate, well-recognized companies rejected my proposals and applications for them to advertise here; but there were some striking cases where my proposals and applications were not rejected. Representatives of those companies came here, read the material, and determined thatdespite the low traffic in those days and the somewhat quirky nature of the subject matter and writing styleThe Dark Wraith Forums was a legitimate advertising platform. In my judgment, that counts for something.
This is where you, good readers, come into play. Whether you have been reading this blog since its inception or are a more recent regular visitor, I want you to give me your input regarding retention of legacy advertisers. Taking into consideration the legitimacy some of the current advertisers might be conferring upon the siteand also taking into consideration the character and quality of the advertisements that have appeared in the rotationswith which companies, if any, should I retain commission-based affiliate relationships as exceptions to the new policy of working only with flat rate-paying advertisers? Below are the companies with which The Dark Wraith Forums is currently in commission-based affiliate relationships:
◊ A&E/The History Channel (DVDs, books, collectibles)
◊ Adobe (professional and personal productivity software)
◊ Barnes & Noble (bookseller)
◊ CallingCards.com (multiple-vendor calling card seller)
◊ eBay (consumer products)
◊ e-Forex Gold (online currency exchange service)
◊ Elisabeth by Liz Claiborne (plus-size women's apparel)
◊ LegalZoom (discount legal documents and services)
◊ Liz Claiborne (apparel, primarily women's)
◊ Love and Pride (gay jewelry)
◊ MotherNature.com (natural health and beauty products)
◊ Richart Chocolates of Paris (imported chocolates)
◊ Signature Wines (wines via Internet orders)
◊ Sirius Satellite Radio (satellite radio broadcast and electronics)
◊ Starbucks (coffee)
◊ Virtual Bank (online money market and mortgage loan services)
As a final note, the companies above that have generated revenues for The Dark Wraith Forums are Barnes & Noble, eBay, and Starbucks. Total commissions have been less than $50.
Let me know your thoughts on this weighty issue of entrepreneurial capitalism.
Now, on to some of the moment's meaty matters. The stock markets have made a two-day bull run resulting in a recovering of losses sustained early in the week. However, this means only that the market right now is displaying quite a bit of volatility without much in the way of overall gain, sort of like a car spinning around in a circle on ice: the fact that the car is twirling means it's not dead, but neither does it mean that the passengers are getting any closer to their destination for all the gyrations they're enjoying.
In other news, the Federal Reserve Board has released the minutes of the most recent meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (which determines the direction of monetary policy), and analysts' suspicions have been confirmed in that the minutes clearly indicate (and signal) that the Fed has no intention of letting up in its nearly two-year fight against inflation. Several months ago, certain members of the Fed were floating the possibility of a pause in the upward push on interest rates the central bank has been sustaining since the Summer of 2004, but it now looks like the Fed will be continuing its record string of rate increases at least into the Summer of this year and possibly beyond.
This could be bad news for congressional incumbents seeking re-election, especially if the rising interest rates throughout the economy finally trigger a snap in consumer spending, business activity, or both. The counter-balance to this will be that, if the dollar continues to sink toward Third World currency status, American exports will get pretty darned cheap in foreign markets, boosting output in industrial sectors that sell overseas. The downside of this is that, as foreign imports get more and more expensive here because of the greenback's weakness, consumers are really going to feel the pinch, especially those who rely on discount stores like Walmart to keep household budgets from sinking heavily into the red. If prices of consumer items here in the U.S. start to skyrocket because of exchange rate adjustments, people will definitely start to feel the effects of inflationary pressures that have actually been present but held at bay in the economy for quite some time.
It's a complicated situation that's evolving, but here's the bottom line: as has been the case for much of the Bush Administration, the economy will appear, at least for a while longer, to keep on growing, even as poor and middle-class households suffer further deprivation at the mercy of markets that favor investment-based income earners over labor-based income earners.
As always, let the good times roll.
Pull up one of the easy chairs here in the lounge, say what you need to say, and take you mind off your troubles tonight. Keep in mind that it is entirely possible that the world as we know it will end tomorrow or soon thereafter; but you can do nothing about it, so you might as well spend what might be your last hours here at The Dark Wraith Forums enjoying the company of others who are equally doomed but no less committed to enjoying what time they still havebe it an hour or a centuryin glad and fine company.
The Dark Wraith closes the blinds so no one has to see the Rapture proceeding apace.
Update at 17:30:00 EDT on 06/02/06

The message board has been repaired. A few coloration and theme matters still have to be addressed, and those will be handled over the weekend. Other than those minor issues, The Dark Wraith Forums Message Board is once again as operational as it was before the fiasco. In fact, if you look around, you might find a few subtle improvements. Nothing much, mind you; but a few very small features have been upgraded.
The Dark Wraith avows that doing the repairs was a lot like work.
<< 31 Comments Total
"The Dark Wraith closes the blinds so no one has to see the Rapture proceeding apace."
For those curious souls, however, who are interested in "what's coming", there is a site that might fulfill your needs.
Among the topics (each with many sub-headings) at
are these:
"The Pretribulation Rapture"
"The Tribulation Hour"
"Information For Those Left Behind"
"Salvation Issues"
"Keeping Track Of God's Adversaries"
"Featured End Time Writers"
Yo, Peter.
That site installs a cookie that I strongly suspect is used by certain, shall we say, "agents" of the Rapture to determine who is and who is not worthy of being spirited away before the Tribulation.
Keep in mind, good friend, that those lifted up during the Rapture are denuded, which means you have to float around in the sky in the all together, if you know what I mean (honk-honk, beep-beep). This, of course, brings to mind an old joke.
Little Boy: Lookit, Mommy! A mail plane!
Mother: No, sweetie, that airplane just has its landing gear down.
The conclusion is obvious: get in shape now or face quite a bit of snickering from the Condemnéd of the Earth as you whisk by on your way to Eternal Reward.
The Dark Wraith reaches for the Army Surplus Store surface-to-air missile.
FWIW, I have no opinion on your question about which advertisers to retain.
- oddjob
Good evening, OddJob.
I do know I'm reaching, here. I have learned over the years that what I think is a good idea business-wise is generally not a good idea unless it has been tempered by more objective opinions.
As a matter of fact, I've found out that the term "stroke of genius" when applied to my own business ideas is the death knell for any hope of success.
Maybe I should start selling access to Congressmen.
Yeah, that's a good idea. And then, when I get caught, I can do like Jack Abramoff and say I just found God.
Cool. This is beginning to come together as a real business plan.
The Dark Wraith thinks this whole deal could sell like hotcakes.
Good morning, Dark Wraith.
I did like the Starbucks coffee. I would purchase more from them. It won't be immediately, but I was pleased by their service. The tea I picked is great, so when I run out, I hope to order that again!
Hope the coding for the message board isn't some horrible project. Good luck with that. I'm sure you'll let us know when it's back up and running:)
Hello DW,
Sorry to see the message board down. I know if has it's slow times but many do go there on a daily basis and enjoy the exchange. As enjoyable as they are these sites can relieve a person of any spare time they may have.
See you all there soon,
Charliep
Good Morning Dark Wraith,
Check this one out, good for a smile when you wake up...
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/getfuzzy
Good morning, SB Gypsy.
Well, I'm impressed: head made of cheese, body made of Spam, nose made of nacho, and arms made of sausage.
I guess it just goes to show that one man's art is another man's meal.
The Dark Wraith is now hungry way too early in the day.
Cool. This is beginning to come together as a real business plan.
LOL!! God, how pathetic!
:-)
- oddjob
Good morning, charliepotato.
I'm glad you stopped in.
The ugly part of the message board is coming up later. I've prepared the installation of the code, and I'm trying to figure out just what's going to disappear from the old board.
Lord, I hope the games survive. Those took me a lot of work to put in the first time.
What's worse is that I haven't the foggiest idea of whether or not what I'm about to do is going to even work. I've coded long enough to know that nothing works the way I plan it.
Quite a long time back, I was at a message board where people help each other with javascript coding. A number of folks new to coding come in to get help. Someone put up a message with a header that so perfectly captured the essence of something just about every script coder on Earth has used as a mumbled mantra: the header read something like, "Will someone PLEASE tell me what the F#@!%K is wrong with this code of mine?!!!"
The Dark Wraith prepares to do a fair amount of cursing here in a while.
Good morning, Old White Lady.
I am, indeed, considering holding on to Starbucks at least for a while. Unfortunately, that company will eventually be moving, as many companies are, to javascript ads, and that will be the end for them here. On a technical level, javascripts increase Webpage load time, and The Dark Wraith Forums already suffers long load time as it is, in part because of three scripts that are part of the architecture of the site. (The three major scripts are the one that toggles the comments, the one that drives the core of the entire blogScream news wire service, and the massive AJAX that allows me to dynamically update sidebar content without having to republish the basic template code every time. There are a few minor scripts, too, like the one that allows readers to toggle the color theme.)
On a much more important level—and aside from the fact that javascript is going to become increasingly obsolete over the course of the next few years—javascript ads take content control out of my hands: the advertiser decides what graphics show up, and all I do is get surprised by whatever happens to be the whim of the ad people on a given day. That's nice for them, but as I noted in the post above, I am fiercely, almost maniacally, opposed to some types of animated ads, especially the ones that jerk or flash rapidly or do some blinky-blink thing. People visit a Website for content, not to have some stupid ad dancing around shouting, "Hey, HEY! OVER HERE! LOOK AT ME!"
I actually leave Websites that start annoying me like that. Yesterday, I went to Bloomberg to read a business article, and not ten seconds after the page loaded and I was engrossed in the content, a booming voice—a VOICE, for God's sake—starts yakking about the awesome benefits of some company and its wonderful products. I just closed the browser.
I figured that, if Bloomberg didn't think its article was substantive enough to require its readers' undivided attention, it probably wasn't worth my aggravation anyway.
The Dark Wraith has a slight degree of impatience with marketing in general.
PoLT first releases "chaff" and then presents this less "rapturous" news:
"Critics Plan Offensive as IMF-World Bank Crisis Deepens"
by Walden Bello (professor of Sociology at the University of the Philippines and executive director of the Bangkok-based Focus on the Global South)
Some quotes from the article:
"The IMF never recovered from the Asian financial crisis in 1997..."
"...key Asian countries such as Thailand, Philippines, China, and India have refrained from new borrowings from the IMF..."
"...a boycott by some of its biggest borrowers is creating a budgetary crisis..."
"...the World Bank is also in crisis..."
"...the Fund and Bank staff...is ill-equipped for the complex and messy work of the political systems in which they work."
"The Dark Wraith closes the blinds so no one has to see the Rapture proceeding apace."
Not much really to add, except Starbucks is too corporatized for me, good coffee though ;>) ...
Loved your tag line, Wraith...
Good morning, Dark Wraith.
I've not really used any of the ads here, which is not to say I wouldn't. Starbucks makes epis coffee, and I haven't had more than the 1-2 glasses of wine per year for a while now, but the rest of the sites look okay.
The only good thing I can say about the Rapture nonsense is that it got a good friend of mine interested in books. After years of family telling her how stupid she was, and how books were meant for other people, she decided that she'd give reading a try. Her daughter is now almost 7 and she wanted to be a good example - so she started the "Left Behind" series. Inexplicably, she just loves them. She hasn't bugged me about reading them, which must be the mark of a good friend.
Good luck with the *shudder* coding.
Total commissions have been less than $50.
Let me know your thoughts on this weighty issue of entrepreneurial capitalism.
I think the answer is self evident based on your stated commissions.
My personal surfing habits are such that I'm not looking for ads when I come to a site like yours - the ads have no relation to the topic at hand and there's no draw to them. There have been times when you've mentioned a new ad, and I've looked at it out of curiosity, but that is it. If I'm looking for something specific to buy, I usually search for it on google and then go directly to a seller. To me the ads are like the yellow pages. If I need to, I'll look something up, but I'm not going to thumb through them just to see if a number strikes my fancy.
I know homeless people working the corners that make $50 a day. I think you'd be better off asking for donations somehow. Maybe add a donate button (paypal for example) beneath your Quoth that says if you like this quote please donate $1. And then when you publish your book, you can have a Best of Dark Wraith Quoths section, with the best determined by the dollar amount brought in by each.
My guess is that you've made more with bumper stickers and buttons, but I could be wrong. You've had some great ideas (especially from the message boards), that directly relate to one topic or another that has been discussed here. Why not take advantage of that (but more prominently displayed than currently)?
good morning dark wraith: as far as the net commerce issues, i leave them up to you and the marketplace. my own experience has been varied. i have a sideline business making chocolate truffles and for a few years struggled and slaved away with keeping my web page up and running. finally i reached a point where it became more trouble than it was worth and i let it languish. i realized that my business is 1)seasonal, because summer heat where i live closes me down from may till october, and 2) local because shipping has to be overnight and is therefore, an expense that only people familiar with my truffles would deem worthy of the expense. i also realize that while there's money to be made recording music for jingles i will spend my time doing that. the money's too damn good. i'm a whore trapped by my own success. my only valid complaint would be when i don't have enough time to brush my teeth between appointments.
HI DW,
I've got a question for you regarding exchange rates. It's a simple question in my mind, but I'm not sure how to phrase it clearly..
When you have floating exchange rates between 3 or more currencies, is there some stretchiness between the relative values of the currencies? For example, let's take the Yen, the US$, and the Euro.
Let's say the US$ is falling against the Euro, but rising against the Yen. One would then expect that the Yen would also be falling against the Euro, even more than the US$. In fact, it would be the rate that the US$ is falling against the Euro plus the rate that the Yen is falling against the US$.
Or, is there some kind of stretchiness to it all? For example, is it possible to have the US$ falling against the Euro, but rising against the Yen, but then have the Yen actually be rising against the Euro at the same time that it is falling against the US$ while the US$ is falling against the Euro?
I'll take my answer off the air.
Message Board upgarde - I thought I walked into the wrong house, given all the bright colors. Or was I raptured and and it's always Autumn Light in heaven?
So given your additinal time investment into the board, both maintaining it and now fixing it, are you ever going to be actually using it yourself?
I end up working too much for a few days and bring up the Mssg Board and BAM...Bright and cheery, NEW NEWS in the banner...I checked to make sure I was still in the proper universe.....Yay to Master Wraith for his good work, as always.
As to advertisers, I personally don't care for Starbucks coffees-I've had better, though now all the wannabees are starting to serve theirs too strong and too bitter in order to please the folks who ruined their pallettes at Starbucks(strong is okay, bitter is not, overpriced is worse). Now as an employer I recall way back when that they were models of treating their people right. If that still were the case, giving them some ad mileage for small remuneration would be appropriate for the politics of this blog. I guess in other words I think keeping any should be decided on the basis of support...Do you, DW, support the company or product because it supports some value of yours shared by the regular denizons of this place? The Gay Jewelery site is wonderful, I don't happen to have the bucks to buy what I'd like from them, but I'm really glad you've got them. A bookstore of some ilk is a necessity, even if not a moneymaker. Cheap doityourself legal documents-assuming they are truly a good value-fits our "theme" of cynisism and wanting to not rely on others to protect our interests. As well as being cheap bastards :)
I didn't wait for the full load, so can't view the full slate of ads at the moment. I personally dislike all things EBay just on the principle of the thing-it lends no positive cachet to my DWF experiance. So look at the ads and see who you would be willing to recommend to several friends, either as places to support because of their actions/politics or places with a product that is superior &/or personally pleasing to one Dark Wraith. Those are the folks you want to tout for free/nearly so. Make everyone else pay upfront. The click thrus are more statements about the site than for revenue.
Wild Clover has rambled.
The "host" is more than welcome to come do some coding work at my house. It's been a helluva week.
Good (rainy) Afternoon Dark Wraith,
Not anymore. The ad rate card will provide the legal notification so that ads placed without permission will be billed at a special rate for the time in 24 hour increments that they're viewable until I find and delete them. These rates will apply to any ads placed without permission after the ad rates notice is posted. And I will take collection of the bills quite seriously.
*ha ha* cool-
I hope you can collect... they are so obnoxious!
I also hate blinky blinky ads, and have a card next to my computer to shade my eyes from them, when nessessary. I would tend to click through the message board when I go to Barnes & Noble,(you may as well get the ching, as I'm goin' there anyway...) but I don't tend to click thru ads unless I already want to buy something.
Hi Dark Wraith,
when you say spammers placed adds in your comment section, do yo mean links or actual full blown graphic adds.
How is that possible? Do they place the add graphic as an avatar in their profile?
Sorry, I'm ignorant as always but trying to learn.
As far as ads go, I rarely click on any ads unless it is something that truly appeals to me wich is rare.
In my limited experience with the internet it seems traffic is the key. It seems to be a shear numbers game.
If you can get hundreds of thousands of hits a day and 2 to 3 percent of those visitors click an add then you are in business.
But if you are like me and you only get 50 to 100 hits a day and those 50 or 100 are repeat customers, they are likely not going to click anything, not because they refuse, but because they have seen the ads over and over. If they didn't click the third or fourth time, they are likely not to click.
My guess is you get much better traffic than just a few hundred hits a day based on your comment section.
But I think for ad revenue to work, you need to get tens of thousands an hour.
Good evening, Dark One.
I go outside in a few now to view the incredible ecliptic with Mars just about to set. I think. If I see naked bodies floating upwards in my 12x80 binocs I will report back, but the entire concept of a rupture would seem to me to be geophysical, not religious. But then I am only a stupid serf with no more imagination than a thinking stone. But that may place me ahead of the rupture masses, who need sometimes a boot in the genitals to achieve low earth orbit. Sometimes the blackdog speaks.
Good evening, BlackDog.
The ecliptic is standing nicely right now, and we have a few planets slowly moving their way across the night sky in good position, too.
Maybe this August, we'll have a spectacular meteor shower. I think this might be the year. That would be cool. In the early 19th Century, one of the most incredible meteor shower of recorded history was observed. As I recall, a fairly prominent minister of the time, upon seeing this celestial display, calmly went in and awoke his family to solemnly tell them that the world was coming to its end.
It didn't.
As a direct consequence of that failure of the Rapture to come about, we must now endure, live through, and then recover to the extent possible from the Bush Administration.
Stupid, unproductive meteor shower.
The Dark Wraith doesn't place much credence in ministerial proclamations anymore.
Good evening, PoliShifter.
No, those spammer hoehandles were putting in comments with embedded links to their idiotic Websites. I had more than a few for "HOT HOT" porn sites, and some for stock promotions and assorted other investment scams. It's taking me hours and hours to clear them out.
It just ticks me off. As a matter of principle, they're using private property to promote their commercial enterprises; but on a more practical level, those stupid ads get picked up by search engine bots, so I get visitors coming here looking for porn because some search engine has The Dark Wraith Forums linked to keywords the preverts type in.
Needless to say, the folks looking for "HOT HOT" action find nothing of the sort here; and I dare say that I'll bet one look at some of the more arcane economics posts here have taken the wind out of their sails... or at least taken the air out of their balloons.
It takes all kinds to make a world, I guess, and I have only myself to blame for a few hits: I made a comment awhile back about a few of my experiences in Indonesia hearing about "LBFMs" and, my God, I've had creeps keying 'LBFM' into search engines and landing here, apparently thinking they were going to see pictures or lurid descriptions!
Ew.
You are correct about the relationship between traffic and success of click-throughs: you have to get thousands of hits a day to have a prayer because the click-through rates are, at best, maybe a tenth to two-tenths of a percent when the Website is general interest but the ads are target- or demographic-specific. Higher click-through rates occur with psychographic matching strategies, like when a site is dedicated to specific types of investments and the ads are for those types of investments.
You'll also get higher click-through rates when the lead author on a site has a very dedicated following, like for Pat Robertson or Rush Limbaugh types of followers. Leaders like that tend to have followers who want, perhaps even really need, to be told what to do and what to think; and I say that not to cast aspersions on such viewers of those kinds of sites (I can do that at my leisure in some other comment or post), but to point out that, if you're trying to appeal to an independent-minded, intelligent audience, you're not going to be successful in getting people to do what you want, especially in terms of purchases.
I suppose I could try something like Pat Robertson's "Age-Defying" milkshake drinks. He claims he can leg press a thousand pounds, and he implies that his age-defying product line is the reason. I'm not sure I have any marketing ideas like that, though: what am I supposed to sell, though?—maybe the Dark Wraith's Stupid-B-Gone Spam Sandwiches... The Dark Wraith sez, 'Eat these and Right-wing nutcases won't talk to you about their philosophy of life!'
Or maybe something like The Dark Wraith's Flatulence Spray: Next time someone says George is a great President, hose 'em with the Spray an' make 'em go away.
Yeah. That might sell like hotcakes.
The Dark Wraith feels the entrepreneurial spirit bubbling to the surface once again.
Good evening, konagod.
For those of you unfamiliar with konagod, he's a regular commenter over at Pam's House Blend, among other places. In fact, when Pam posts an open thread, konagod is usually the one to keep the thing going while everyone else stays on the sidelines. If it weren't for him, you'd hear the crickets chirping.
Come to think of it, after I post a comment over there, you can really hear the crickets chirping.
At least konagod can get people to respond to his comments.
Anyway, welcome to The Dark Wraith Forums, konagod.
The Dark Wraith always wondered what it would be like to have a coffee deity spend quality time around here.
I shall return tomorrow to comment on more comments here: I think all the re-coding of the message board roasted a few brain functions I kind of like to use when I'm thinking.
Strange. I don't get as worn out exercising as I do coding for hours on end.
That might just go to prove the relative weakness of muscles versus mind.
The Dark Wraith is a bit troubled by looking at it that way.
Good Morning Dark Wraith.
Yes, the crickets can be heard chirping when you comment. I think it clears the room like the detonation of a thermo-nuclear device.
The coffee deity will grace your blog periodically for a "freshening up" if you will.
Good morning, dAVE.
I must apologize for not touching in a more timely fashion on your question about the dynamics among more than two currencies.
Here's what might look like an impossible situation if currencies are locked in a mathematically precise relationship:
◊ The dollar is falling against the euro.
◊ The dollar is rising against the yen.
◊ However, the yen is rising against the euro!
This doesn't seem reasonable because it looks like the yen is weakening against the dollar, which is weakening against the euro, so the yen should definitely be weaking against the euro.
A simple way this could happen is as follows.
◊ The Japanese have accumulated considerable foreign reserves in euros, which they begin to use to aggressively purchase yen in currency markets, perhaps as part of a broadly contractionary monetary policy regime to stave off potential domestic inflation caused by a global overhang of yen. This purchase of yen with euro will cause the yen to rise in value against the euro.
◊ After years of using monetary policy to support fiscal policy initiatives (that's a polite way of saying that the Fed has been printing money to pay for tax cuts and wars), inflationary expectations in the United States are beginning to build into the economy. This will cause the dollar to fall against currencies of countries whose expected inflation rates are less. If, for example, the expected rate of inflation in Europe is lower, that should mean the dollar will start to drop against the euro.
◊ So how could it not drop against the yen as well? One (actually, more than one) possibility: first, if expected inflation in the U.S. were less than that in Japan, the dollar would tend to rise against the yen, but it could still be slipping against the euro if there were a serious overhang of dollars in the foreign reserves of the Europeans, but one not so severe in the foreign reserves of the Japanese. In fact, this situation could be exacerbated if the Americans were to begin to aggressively try to sop up the overhang in Japan while ignoring Europe: the dollar would tend to move up against the yen, but by ignoring the European issue, the greenback would at the same time slide against the euro. Moreover, if the Japanese central bank were pushing domestic interest rates upward, and if those rates were more attractive than European rates, the yen would strengthen against the euro; but attractive investment in the U.S. (propelled by, among other things, low tax rates, which can become a magnet for foreign investment), make the Japanese interest rates still kind of lame against the American interest rates. But the severe overhang of greenbacks in Europe suppresses any strength the dollar could garner from respectable interest rates here in the U.S.
Now, there would be a potential for currency traders to play a three-way arbitrage in such a situation, but it couldn't go too far if the overhangs and central bank purchases were serious and sustained. Most likely, you'd see a considerably amount of volatility with exchange rates among the currencies, with only the overall trends maybe moving in the theoretical directions.
But, yeah, it could happen, and it could happen under a number of scenarios, some of which are probably less confusing than the one I just threw down.
The Dark Wraith has probably befuddled folks far more than he needed to with this response to a simple question.
Your quote: "... the boy wouldn't be such a jerk if he'd just get laid." in view of:
leads me to speculate that maybe he's such a jerk 'cause that's all he ever thinks about?
Good afternoon, Peter. I think I shall reprint from the message board my reply to you over there.
The rumors about George W. Bush and Victor Ashe (formerly the mayor of Knoxville and now the American Ambassador to Poland) go back years. Even in the first years of Bush's Presidency, there were Websites describing him as a "Sodomite" (among other things), and these weren't all just Leftist/liberal writers. You can read a somewhat exhaustive account written in 2003 here.
The dominatrix stuff has also made the rounds on its own before, and the two stories have converged from time to time, as have George's sexual proclivities in constellation with his alleged drug abuse. By one account, he used an offer of cocaine to solicit an underaged girl for sex, but this allegation doesn't rise quite even to the level of hearsay. Whether or not it is fact is lost to the extent that the Republicans—most imporantly, Karl Rove—have been masterful at covering Bush's tracks on everything from his old sex and drug addictions to his less-than-sterling military service record to his recent slide back into the bottle.
Is all this renewed talk of Bush's sexual indiscretions just another Rove set-up? I don't think so. Not this time.
Will Rove be able to spin it into a set-up? That's more likely but not a sure thing.
Is this the real thing? It's only as real as the mainstream media want to make it, and those guys are too scared to touch it with a ten-foot pole.
We'll just have to see if there are any mainstream journalists out there who didn't want to live forever anyway.
The Dark Wraith was kind of hoping for a few more years, himself.
[But what th' heck? Some things might be worth dying for as long as the grin on my corpse can't be wiped off by the crematorium operator.]