Special Analysis:
A Tactical Decision before the End Game
Event One: Severe erosion of Mr. Bush's popularity specifically, as well as that of the Republicans in Congress generally, indicates by early October of this year that the up-coming November elections will result in the Democrats acquiring solid control of both Houses of Congress.
Event Two: Attempting to avert the disaster to the Republican Party, Vice President Richard Cheney resigns for health reasons before the election, and Mr. Bush exercises his power under Section 2 of the 25th Amendment to the Consitution of the United States, appointing a successor who is relatively untainted by scandals engulfing other members of the Bush Administration. Because the Republicans are still in control of both Houses of Congress at the time Mr. Cheney resigns and his successor is nominated by Mr. Bush, the new Vice President is easily and very quickly confirmed.
Event Three: Republican efforts to turn around public disgust with their rule in Washington are wholly unsuccessful, and the Democrats rout the Republicans in the November elections, taking solid majority control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Event Four: Almost immediately after Congress re-convenes in 2007, bitter anger on the part of Democrats spills out in multiple investigations, culminating in articles of impeachment being approved by the House, followed by an ugly Senate trial at the end of which President George W. Bush is convicted and removed from office.
Now, return to Event Two. By having Dick Cheney resign, the strategists for Mr. Bush have accomplished two important goals in the gathering storm: first, they have denied the Democrats the easier of the two targets of impeachment; second (and far more importantly), they have ensured that Bush's successor is still one of their own. To this second point, had Mr. Cheney remained and been impeached either before or concurrently with Mr. Bush, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 would have directed that the Speaker of the House become President. Given that the Democrats would be in control of that body in 2007, the President until November of 2008 would then have undoubtedly been a Democrat. But by the timing of Mr. Cheney's resignation, the Republicans have ensured that they will remain in control of the Executive Branch of the United States government through 2008.
The question is now obvious:
Whom should George W. Bush appoint as successor to Richard Cheney as Vice President of the United States?
The Dark Wraith trusts readers see this as an important matter to consider.
Published 4/11/2006 09:56:00 PM
<< 20 Comments Total
This would have been a better game to play before Nixon nominated Ford as Agnew's replacement. Nixon made choices that had some semblance of politically rational scheming.
I don't believe Bush will make a politically rational choice because of the limits of his personality. The only one I think even remotely fills the bill you suggest is Rice, and she is hardly an untainted commodity.
I don't know enough about his Texas coterie to offer a guess as to who he would likely select, but I will guarantee that the choice will be somebody he knows well and is comfortable with.
He never makes choices outside an immediate circle of long-standing aquaintances. Unfortunately, I think the best choice he could possibly make would be someone as far removed from the stench of Shrub's past occupations as is politically possible.
- oddjob (who in this scenario believes Shrub's anti-Midas touch will lead to a disastrous, or at least monumentally stupid, choice)
I suspect Joe Lieberman would come to Bush's rescue
If only Dark Wraith...
I have a feeling we'll be invading Iran soona and the war drums will beat "don't jump horses in mid race!"
Will people be fooled? Or worse, will we tolerate election fraud this time around?
I think the best choice for the Republican party would be Rudy Guiliani. It would make him the natural choice for the nomination in 2008 Presidential run. The Republican party is weak in the Northeast, and Guiliani would likely put New York's 31 votes in the R column and also carry some other New England states due to goodwill overflow. The one question would be how he would play in the the south, but given his leadership on 9/11 and his tough anti-crime reputation I believe the southern Republican base would be supportive. One obvious sticking point is his pro-choice view.
Having McCain and Guiliani in a Republican primary after Guiliani had served as VP would make the Democratic primary look like a high school class officer election. I don't think the Democrats could put forth anyone to even compete under that scenario. Hillary would have some "star" power, but I'm not convinced we're that progressive as a society yet.
- Cole
Within Bush's close circle of idiots it strikes me that Rice has been flying under the radar far better than most. Able Danger, 9/11 lies, mushroom clouds, or whatever; no shit seems to stick to her.
I think she'd be happy to have her husband, I mean President, appoint her to the office.
Ugh.
Interesting.
And I wonder how many Democrats—even if they were in the mood for blood—would go after her in a confirmation hearing.
But let us not forget all the other Republicans who are relatively clear. However, as several of you have pointed out, not many of them are the inner-circle cats to which Bush would attenuate. Nevertheless, they are out there: McCain, Hagel, Santorum, DeWine, Hatch, etc.
One interesting play would be to pick a Right-wing Senator who was likely to lose his seat. This brings the outside possibility, as PoliShifter noted, of Lieberman, but closer in, it puts Santorum into play.
But there are lots of folks who could be viable, and they include some of the lesser-known jokers right beside the Bush. The new Chief of Staff, Bolten, comes to mind. So do several women besides Rice in the periphery of the inner circle.
Possibilities are out there.
The Dark Wraith sort of gets nauseous thinking about most of them.
Giuliani would be a rational Republican Party choice. Bush will never go for it, if only because of Giuliani’s marquee value. Nobody out stars Bush, remember; not even a Tour de France winner. Also - Giuliani is a noted intellectual. Bush will not have anyone around who is demonstrably smarter than him. Cheney and the others might have double the IQ - but they pay proper obeisance to the king; Giuliani’s not known for his retiring nature. Personally – I don’t think Bush will look for another VP. He thinks he’s God, and therefore infallible – remember?
I think McCain is positioning himself in a way that he could be a leading contender, would Bushco pick him? He's done his obeisance to Bushco, and is courting the wackos on the religious right. I think Rove could go with him. Maybe.
Harriet Miers also comes to mind. Rove wouldn't have her, tho. Condosleeza is the darling of the republican party, but I don't see her popular with enough dems - she lied and lied for Iraq, and she's proved herself subservient, and incompetent.
Lieberman may support Bushco all the time, but the repubs don't want him. Rove surely doesn't want him. Someone suggested in the paper that he should just switch parties, and the republicans said - no no that's ok he should stay dem...
Too bad we can't impeach them both.
i don't see bush making a rational choice, or a choice in his party's interest. i agree with oddjob. bush would make a disastrously poor choice. he might even provoke a crisis in the republican party (woohoo!). he would choose someone close to him. he may try for rice, but that might ensure a democratic successor.
i think it very unlikely that cheney will resign. these people don't do anything for the greater good. i'm trying to roll with your scenario here, but i think the iran war is most likely. "heh, heh. see, i'm a war president. heh, heh."
Are we forgetting the possibility of another terrorist attack with the repukes screaming to rally round the pResident?
I'm thinking that these guys are becoming desperate. Remember that DICK Cheney was on a committee to select the shrub's running mate and selected himself.
Whatever happens, truth sure is stranger than fiction. If these jerks attack Iran there will be hell to pay. I don't see any way to prevent Iran from simply pulling the plug on the sealanes from the entire Gulf region. China, Russia and India won't just sit on their collective asses and watch.
The lesson for Iran has been well learned by watching North Korea, if you have nukular weapons, the USA will not attack you. I think it used to be called deterrence.
Where is the doomsday machine when you really need it?
Anyway, I'm hoping for #3 and #4.
Jeb or Neal?
Good evening. I believe that King George will attack Iran, terrorists will attack the U.S. on the homeland and abroad, and the evil neocons will hold onto power by giving Americans a false sense of "security' by mongering even more fear. But I'm a pessimist when it comes to this sort of thing...
Mixter
Interesting speculation regarding Event 2, but I can't see it being a remote possibility since Rummy doesn't seem to be going anywhere. If he is replaced this year then I might by into event 2..
Billmon's latest post on the recent urgings for Rumsfeld to resign resonated with me. He said that Cheney and Rumsfeld would never, ever step down from power. They're power hungry, and giving up any of it would damage their 'history will judge' positions, as in the books will say they resigned in disgrace.
With that in mind, to answer your question it depends when this comes down. Frist has made plenty of overtures, as have Santorum and now George Allen thanks to the immigration fallout. The first two are almost as stupid as GW, so I'm sure either would be as acceptable as theocratic puppets, though Santorum, being extra crazy (I'm from PA), might be considered too risky.
In such a game of thrones-esque power play, I doubt the public, already greatly dissatisfied with the Bush people, would accept Jeb as a replacement. It'd be a great celebrity-family story, one that even our 'semi-state aligned media' (as Billmon calls them) would cover.
- Tim M.
Good afternoon, Tim.
Just awhile ago, the major media outlets were reporting Bush's written statement of unqualified support for Donald Rumsfeld. CNN.com quoted Bush as stating, "Earlier today I spoke with Don Rumsfeld about ongoing military operations in the Global War on Terror. I reiterated my strong support for his leadership during this historic and challenging time for our Nation."
(I note parenthetically that the term 'Global War on Terror' has somewhere along the line achieved the status of a proper noun, given the capitalization. Mr. Bush is utterly convinced that a nation can wage war against 'terror', as Presidents before him fallaciously believed a nation can wage war on 'poverty', 'inflation', and other phenomena.)
This level of unqualified support is not in any way admirable; instead, it is the hallmark of a man who willfully wants around him individuals of mendacity and incompetence at least equal to his.
So, is the assumption that Cheney would resign complete folly? Actually, it's fine whether or not he does: if Cheney stays in the pocket, he's the lightning rod of a bloodthirsty Democrat's dream. If he leaves, though, the Democrats have to assume he'll be replaced by someone just as vicious and incompetent (and weird) as everyone else Bush appoints.
It is my contention that the Democrats must plan for whatever scenario unfolds, and that's something I just haven't seen the institutional Democrats doing worth for the past five years. I can forgive them for being blindsided by the criminal activities of the 2000 election even though history points to vote and election fraud as being not all that uncommon, though perhaps not on the scale of what happened in 2000; I cannot, however, countenance the multiple times since then that the Republicans have out-maneuvered them. It just drives me crazy that the mainstream Democrats still seem to have this idea that the utterly impossible, the unthinkable, and the ludicrous are off the table for contingency planning.
Until the Democrats stop saying, "Naw, they wouldn't pull that," and "Who would have thought they'd do that," the Republicans will continue to dominate the landscape of politics in this country.
We shall see what the Democrats do over the Summer in preparation for the worst case scenarios of the Autumn, not only with respect to political maneuvering, but also with respect to new wars, potential new Supreme Court nominees, and a host of other "Who would-a thunk it?" situations.
The Dark Wraith will do his modest part to point to the unimaginable, hoping somebody will imagine it.
I'm not sure about who Bush would nominate to replace Cheney--but it seems to me they should hire the Dark Wraith because this is something that they need some help with(subtlety) and I'm sure that they are spending way too much time on planning to blow up more places, or whatever their destructive tendencies are up too.
The rational choice would be Giuliani, I agree with that. But I agree with The Fat Lady Sings, that Bush wouldn't be able to stomach someone notably smarter than himself. The guy is a, gasp, intellectual by comparison, and as we all know, Bush's folks don't do intellect too well, nor do they encourage it among their voting public.
My guess is that Condoleezza will be the fail-safe if they need to install another veep.
But Dick Cheney won't step down unless he really is at death's door. Frankly, I'm not sure I see him stepping down even then. If he dies, they'll bring in Condoleezza.
Initially, I wondered about them bringing in Colin Powell, despite his speaking out about never believing in the WMD. Hmmm.
Hello DW,
RESIGN? CHENEY?
Never happen. But if a situation were to arise I can see where they would consider Frist the perfect bendover boy of the GOP.
I am almost totally convinced they will do anything to remain in power since they are on a mission and it has not been accomplished yet. LOL but not the least bit funny.
Good afternoon, elf.
Yes, I find many occasions these days to laugh in the absence of humor in our political and economic circumstances. It's a sort of an ironic type of laugh: the kind one might muster in the moment one realizes that a cow is falling from the sky and is going to land right on top of you.
I wish that analogy made sense; but then again, I wish this whole era made sense.
The Dark Wraith looks forward to a time when we have a President whose missteps are guininely humorous once again.
Good afternoon, Sara.
And there it happened again: I started laughing about your comment concerning Cheney not resigning even if he were at death's door.
It seems to me that even death, itself, wouldn't be much of a deterrent. I am quite certain Satan would allow Cheney plenty of time back on Earth, if for no other reason than that Satan would prefer a little peace and quiet down in Hell.
Then again, it might just be me, but I swear, Condoleeza Rice is looking more and more like something out of a graphic novel like Sin City every day.
Then again, if you saw my graphic of George Bush, you might wonder what poorly cast Batman movie he starred in. (I should note once again, by the way, that I did no retouching on his face for that graphic. Note the red nose, which I have found showing up in a disturbing number of recent pictures of him.)
Lord. At least Rudy has a better wardrobe than most Republicans.
The Dark Wraith sees the potential for a very complicated election season.