Analysis:
Index Portfolio Performance during the Bush Administration to Date
The argument that the fiscal health of the public sector has faltered to the benefit of the private sector does not hold water. From the first day of trading, January 22, 2001, after President Bush became the 43rd President of the United States, until the last day of trading prior to the publication date of this article, the performance of the major stock markets—measured by the index portfolios of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard & Poor's 500, and the NASDAQ Composite—has been nothing short of a debacle, offering compelling testament to the real erosion of the capital stock of the nation as measured by the value of equity holdings in three broad-based portfolios formed from well-known indices.
January 22, 2001 was the first day of trading after Mr. Bush became President. Three major indices stood at the following levels at the close of trading on that day:
January 22, 2001, Index Closing Values
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 10,578.24
Standard & Poor's 500: 1342.9
NASDAQ Composite: 2757.91
At the close of trading on Friday, March 31, 2006, these same three averages stood at the following levels:
March 31, 2006, Index Closing Values
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 11,109.31
Standard & Poor's 500: 1294.83
NASDAQ Composite: 2339.79
If an investor were to have formed a portfolio based upon each of these three indices and managed each portfolio in terms of composition and balance to mirror the relevant index, the investor would have earned the following total nominal returns on investment over the 1,894 days from January 22, 2001, to March 31, 2006:
Total Nominal Portfolio Returns over 1,894 Days
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.02%
Standard & Poor's 500: —3.58%
NASDAQ Composite: —15.16%
Expressing these returns on an annualized (that is, "percentage return per year compounded") basis, the nominal results just presented are as following:
Annualized Nominal Portfolio Returns over 1,894 Days
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.95% per year
Standard & Poor's 500: —0.70% per year
NASDAQ Composite: —3.12% per year
The above are nominal (that is, "not corrected for inflation") results. Taking into account the erosion of purchasing power (that is, "the effect of inflation") on portfolio values over the holding period requires adjusting each of the current values to its equivalent value on January 22, 2001. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data for January 2001, the CPI stood at 175.1, and for February 2006, the CPI stood at 198.7. The March 2006 figure can be estimated by various methods, and here, a conservative projection of 199.1 is derived from the three-month moving average of the CPI, implying a modest annualized inflation rate for the month just ended of 2.4 percent. The chart below shows the month-by-month annualized inflation rates for 2005 and 2006 to February, along with the attendant three-month moving averages.
Expressing the closing portfolio values as of Friday, March 31, 2006, in terms of their January 2001 purchasing power equivalents yields the following:
January 2001 Real Value Equivalents of March 31, 2006, Index Values
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 9770.42
Standard & Poor's 500: 1138.78
NASDAQ Composite: 2057.80
The total real return on investment for each portfolio is then the quotient of the January 2001 index value when divided into the adjusted March 31, 2006, value:
Total Real Portfolio Returns
Dow Jones Industrial Average: —12.05%
Standard & Poor's 500: —15.20%
NASDAQ Composite: —25.39%
Finally, expressing these real returns on an annualized (that is, "percentage return per year compounded") basis, the total real return results just presented are as following:
Annualized Real Portfolio Returns
Dow Jones Industrial Average: —1.52% per year
Standard & Poor's 500: —3.13% per year
NASDAQ Composite: —5.49% per year
All of the results above are summarized in the following chart:
The total and annualized real returns to the selected portfolios are presented below in graphical form:
An investor forming a portfolio tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average from the beginning of the Bush Administration in January of 2001 until March 31, 2006, would have suffered a loss in total real value of the portfolio of more than 12 percent, which is equivalent to a compounding rate of loss in purchasing power of the portfolio over the term of the Bush Administration of one-and-a-half percent per year; the investor forming a portfolio tracking the Standard & Poor's 500 over that period would have suffered a loss in total real value of the portfolio of more than 15 percent, which is equivalent to a compounding rate of loss in purchasing power of the portfolio over the term of the Bush Administration of more than three percent per year; and the investor forming a portfolio tracking the NASDAQ Composite index over that period would have suffered a loss in total real value of the portfolio of more than 25 percent, which is equivalent to a compounding rate of loss in purchasing power of the portfolio over the term of the Bush Administration of five-and-a-half percent per year.
From a well-balanced portfolio of the common stock of reasonably low-risk, very large public corporations to an equally well-balanced portfolio of the common stock of relatively riskier, small-cap public corporations, common stock—called equity—has offered significantly negative real returns during the tenure of the Bush Administration. The securities markets do not make political assessments based upon biases for one party or the other: billions of shares of stock trade each day, and the total value of these trades is an order of magnitude or more greater than this. Over the period of the past five-and-a-quarter years, the absolute control of the government by the Bush Administration and its Republican allies in Congress has been subject to an on-going, objective assessment by the securities markets of the United States, and the result to date of that assessment is that the American economy, as represented by the market values of stocks of large, medium, and small companies, has eroded undeniably and markedly.
Regardless of how large the nearly daily dose of good economic news the Bush Administration induces the mainstream media to repeat, the Administration can neither manipulate the stock market data, nor can it find a scapegoat for the broad-based, long-term depletion of private equity value its policies have caused. For the average American who contemplates retirement in part or in whole based upon investments made and held in the stock market over many years, the Bush Administration's record is nothing short of catastrophic in terms of the financial security for what will be generations of citizens in their retirement years. For most, however, the full realization of the value lost and the disrupted, nearly irreparable damage to future capital appreciation of their investments in the stock markets will come only after the era of the neo-conservatives has come to an end.
In that regard, then, the architects of this malfeasance visited upon the American people will be able to go to their own retirements relatively unscathed by the wrath of retirees of the future realizing as they will that their relative poverty in their declining years is directly attributable to the men and women of this early part of the 21st Century—men and women who will, themselves, live in fair comfort as those for whom they had such grave responsibilities suffer substantially in that degraded time to come.
The Dark Wraith in that grim future will offer unhelpful reminders to citizens as they pay the price for the folly of having trusted Republicans one too many times.
Published 4/01/2006 06:26:00 PM
<< 32 Comments Total
Good morning, Dark Wraith.
The very beginning paragraphs of your article were interesting to read. I hadn't thought about how long the Repubs have been sitting as one-Party control. I wonder how many people do sit back and think about it. I am thinking of writing another letter to the open page of my paper, and the knowledge you've provided will help with what I want to say.
Also, you wrote:
Regardless of how large the nearly daily dose of good economic news the Bush Administration induces the mainstream media to repeat, the Administration can neither manipulate the stock market data, nor can it find a scapegoat for the broad-based, long-term depletion of private equity value its policies have caused.
They'd manipulate it if they could figure out how. It must be rough to be such liars that most people know not to believe them.
Tell me about it. It's been a roller coaster ride... but mostly downward. I'm totally disgusted even with the brunt of my investments in relatively unrisky large corporations, you would think that I would have made out a bit in 5 years... but noooooooo.
I unloaded a bunch of Citicorp to buy Apple and it did quite well, then I would unload a bunch more for Apple, then I unloaded even more recently for Apple.. I bought Apple everytime they came out with a new iPod. Then what the hell happens? They get the Intel chip... I think, "wow, that is a good thing"... I'll get more... but nooooo. People began dumping it because software developers hadn't caught up yet.
Well luckily the Apple I bought a few years ago, is just fine, but the most recent batch which soared initially is doing lousy.
The stock market is risky business. Jersey Cynic at blondesenseblog.com has a post about these nutty christians doing faith based investments.. of course they are not doing that well. I try to invest based on my ethics, and no, Citicorp is not on my list of ethical companies but I inherited thousands of shares 5 years ago and still trying to break even when I try to unload odd lots every so often. I should have sold it on the first day it was mine, but I was still grief stricken and not really thinking about money.
I most certainly blame it on this administration. They are scaring the hell out of investors. A good christian ought to stay out of the roller coaster ride at the moment. And fuck bush.
Oh you gotta check this one out
Fox News: Liberal Media ‘Out To Sabotage The Economy’
at thinkprogress.org.
Unbelievable.
Good morning, BlondeSense Liz.
One of the commenters, Fred, over at Night Bird's Fountain pointed this out to me.
As I noted there, I can see how literally millions of traders, brokers, dealers, market makers, fund managers, institutional investors, arbitrageurs, and assorted other securities market participants could be bamboozled over a period of 1,894 days to the tune of quadrillions of dollars in lost capital appreciation.
This kind of thing happens every day.
Thank God and Rupert Murdoch (and, yes, I repeat myself) we have the experts at Fox to tell us not to believe our lying eyes.
The Dark Wraith is so easily misled by financial analysis.
This post has been removed by the author.
This leaves me with two questions regarding Bush's handling of the economy-
First, it would appear that all of those tax cuts Bush gave to corporations and the wealthy to provide a fiscal stimulus failed massively. Does this repudiate basic neoconservative economic theory, or (as I'm sure some from the Heritage Foundation will argue), "Bush just didn't apply our theories correctly"?
Secondly, by what stretch of the imagination can the MSM continue to claim that the economy has been in a Recovery since 2002 or so? What parallel universe are they broadcasting from?
Wholly OT, but I saw the 4/2/06 Zippy the Pinhead and simply could not resist sharing it!
:-)
- oddjob
LindiBee, if you discount the downturn in late 2001-early 2002, the stock market has grown.
IF you discount the downturn.....
- oddjob
...nutty christians doing faith based investments...
Ha! That one brought a smile to my face.
:)
Hezebazookabedookabediah 3:18-20
"Go ye forth into the desert, and unload a fat wad on Motorola; thus shall the Lord your god telecommunicate with his party affiliates, and enrich the private sector, whom He has chosen..." etc.
Good morning, Progressive Traditionalist.
I do enjoy targeted funds because they almost invariably underperform other funds on a risk-adjusted basis. The bad part is that, because these funds necessarily exclude substantial amounts of the economy as represented by equity, they end up being "unbalanced": by definition, they cannot diversify in such a way as to properly remove the component of risk for which markets provide no expected reward.
I suppose this could be seen by a religious investor as part and parcel of the general persecution that befalls the faithful, and that's a good way to look at it. Markets are forever punishing the foolhardy; that's the way of all things in the world of investments.
The compensation may come in the Hereafter, of course; but that's small comfort to the good and pious investor in the here and now as he watches his portfolio get creamed.
The fun will come, of course, when some of these investors decide that the prospectus for a religiously pious fund inadequately disclosed the fact that only fools would be stupid enough to swallow the bait.
At that point, the investors won't be the only ones suffering persecution in this life: the fund managers and executives will start getting their share, too.
The Dark Wraith hears the church bell of shareholder derivative actions.
Good morning, LindiBee.
As far as I can tell, the neo-cons are still claiming that everything in the economy is just peachy. The mainstream media keeps this drumbeat going, following the band direction of the Department of Commerce with its endless supply of rosiness. You and the other readers here know, of course, that this happy-face harangue is not the whole story by any means; but you all know it's not quite as easy to show as a quick factoid blurb of cheery numbers pumped out from the bowels of the Bush Administration.
The article from which this thread derives took considerable work to write, and it took no small amount of serious effort to read and to digest. That means it's not going to be the usual fare on the CNN Headline News, and it surely won't be something Fox News talks about, even on one of its Talking Heads on Parade pseudo-news programs.
I strongly suspect, though, that many—if not most—Americans know something has been going terribly wrong. For a lot of those people, it took a long time to sink in; and for others, there's still a ways to go before it really hits home that the economy is in bad shape.
Even for me, it takes quite a bit of effort to contemplate that my own economic situation isn't merely a matter of my laziness. Yes, I am lazy, and I could work more. I could stop whining, get off my fat ass, and get some part-time work to supplement my income. I drive by a temporary employment agency every day, and most of the time they have a sign out looking for temps. Just this morning, the big sign said they need eight day laborers right away. I know very well I should have pulled in. I know that. I used to do that kind of work off and on, and I'm not too old to handle it now. By not going in there and getting some work around my teaching schedule, I'm very much watering down any self-righteous, moral outrage I can set forth.
At the same time, the general economic circumstance of far too many Americans is degrading. From that perspective, I appreciate at least on an intellectual level that I'm being swept along in an inexorable tide. That still doesn't mean I shouldn't get off my fat, lazy ass, of course; but that's a personal matter, not something I should in any way expect of the millions of others whose economic condition is being materially and systematically compromised.
But to your point that the multiple rounds of Republican-driven tax cuts didn't help, I need to point out that they actually did, but the benefit did not flow to equity positions all that much. In other words, the general owners of corporations—ownership here being respresented by common stock holdings—haven't done so well, particularly those who had buy-and-hold strategies on traditional portfolios. I shan't at this time go into all the ways insiders and special people can game the securities system except to note tha I used to be a public corporations consultant, and believe me when I tell you that the racket is stunning in its many variations and the amount of money that can be siphoned off the main stream of stock investments. That whole world aside, a lot of money really has otherwise vanished into the Great Unknown.
So, where did all that money go? Capital appreciation throughout the Bush Administration has been highly sector-based, for one thing; but far more importantly, huge swaths of capital simply vanished into overseas markets where traditional American investors, the mom-and-pop kind, don't play. American corporations capable of doing so would be insane to do anything other than ensure that profitability was largely other than where it could be exposed to taxation and expectations by domestic investors. Furthermore, as mom and pop find themselves having to buy cheap imports just so they can pretend to live the American dream, their money heads out to places like China, where the dollars are gathered up and invested back here in stocks and bonds, especially government bonds to feed the massive federal deficits. But that means the capital appreciation from stocks, as well as the interest being paid on debt, doesn't go to Americans; instead it goes to the foreigners who made the investments.
In other words, mom and pop give their money to the Chinese, who invest it back here and then get the rewards to that investment, all while mom and pop get continuously and irreparably sucked dry to the bone.
But at least mom and pop got a great deal on Ramen noodles at Walmart.
The Dark Wraith just paid a dollar for eight packs.
And by the way, if anyone hasn't noticed it, my sidebar frame, "The Dark Wraith Recommends," is currently featuring computer desktop wallpaper for those of you who like a pictorial theme on your computer screens. The image (available for a variety of monitor resolutions) is one of my favorites I've created and will eventually be the basis for a nice poster calendar I shall be offering at a later date.
For now, though, the wallpaper is available for a few days to anyone who wants an understated, graphical reminder of the century in which we live and the times we endure.
The Dark Wraith provides.
happy monday dw.....
bushco gonna get around your bad news by classifying it as top secret. you and me and everyone who reads this gonna wake up tomorrow and find it gone from our hard drives.
i may be revealing my outdated education here.....does anyone invest in equities anymore expecting income? i mean dividends. is it all just appreciation now?
This post by Shakespeare's Sister (& its comment thread) are somewhat relevant here.
- oddjob
Excellent post on an important topic, DW!! Gosh, we haven't heard too much lately about how great those private accounts are going to be, have we?
Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture picked up on a NYT article to talk about how poorly the US markets have performed relative to the rest of the world since 2002 (after the 2001-02 sinkhole). 22 national markets have outperformed us, but we did beat Slovenia!
It was just a year ago I seem to remember saying here on DW Forums that I had put a substantial piece of my portfolio in foreign markets. Added a lot more early last summer and have done far, far better with Latin America, India and various emerging European markets than here in the US.
This administration is all about, and only about, personal gain for themselves and a cadre of close friends, and the hell with anyone else and their progeny.
And by the way, if anyone hasn't noticed it, my sidebar frame, "The Dark Wraith Recommends," is currently featuring computer desktop wallpaper for those of you who like a pictorial theme on your computer screens.
Now, that's quite delightful! :)Thanks!
Hey there sweetie! Don't you sound feisty! Off the subject, I know – but I just wanted to say that I was hoping you'd win that Koufax. Still and all - I really do feel making it as far as the finals is something; and we were amongst many talented and erudite people - but I was so hoping more of my particular blogging friends would have won. Props to Shakes, Sis though. I was thrilled to see her name up there. It's always better when it's someone you know and care about.
Anyway - If I stay up much later I'm gonna pay for it! Great post, my dear. I always enjoy your particular brand of analysis.
Good morning, Fat Lady Sings.
I'm glad to see you're among the Living. It might be just me, but there seems to be a spate of mortality going around these days, so I'm always glad to see people out and about, being alive and all. I responded to your comment on the thread for the Koufax Awards article over at BlondeSense.
Needless to say, The Dark Wraith Forums got kicked in the hind end. I think I came in last among the finalists for Best Expert Blog. Confounded democratic outcomes.
You, on the other hand, got a pretty darned decent number of votes, and the comments of those voting for you were highly favorable. That's more than small comfort: it's always great to know that one's writing really is appreciated, if not by everyone, then at least by a strong, well-read group of good will and reasoned interest. So congratulations. Remember, Fat Lady Sings:
It's better to be favored by the reasoned few than to be adored by the unwashed masses: the former will likely be your allies forever; the latter may very well be a hanging mob waiting to happen.
The Dark Wraith therein finds comfort.
I've checked Pharyngula out before, but somehow I don't find his blogging as addictive as yours is.
- oddjob
God needs better camoflauge.
LOL!!
- oddjob
Never forget fearless leader never places much on polls, seeing as he reads at the level of a 6 year old. But to get into the finals seems to me to be quite an achievement. Plus, this is simply a great site with information that can streach my mind more than I like, and with an emphasis on education. Thanks kudos, Dark One. You remind me of a PhD chemistry Professor I had once in a galaxy and time, well, he was a great teacher and I never have forgotten him. Almost got me to really understand the physical world. And that is alot.
I've checked Pharyngula out before, but somehow I don't find his blogging as addictive as yours is.
Agreed. I like PZ, and he writes some great stuff, but he doesn't cover the same range of subject matter as the Dark Wraith. Also, three articles a day on the folly of creationism is perhaps a bit much. My contempt for the swill propounded by the ID movement knows no bounds, but watching a renowned biology professor beat up on a creationist is the intellectual equivalent of viewing a bare knuckle brawl between Mike Tyson and Woody Allen. It does have a certain novelty value but the outcome is rather predictable.
Good evening, Mr. Shakes.
In the event of the prize fighter duking it out with Mr. Allen, the novelty value is undeniable, but the honest person must also admit to the emotionally satisfying quality such a one-sided match would provide.
As cruel as natural selection is, the benefit to our species of depleting the human genome of elderly actor/directors who cast themselves as sexually attractive to young, beautiful women would be most beneficial, both from a long-term survival standpoint and from an aesthetic perspective, as well.
The Dark Wraith nonetheless turns his head as the kill bite is made.
As cruel as natural selection is, the benefit to our species of depleting the human genome of elderly actor/directors who cast themselves as sexually attractive to young, beautiful women would be most beneficial, both from a long-term survival standpoint and from an aesthetic perspective, as well.
Especially when we later learn said behavior is unsettlingly autobiographical......
- oddjob (who as a result of said revelations finds the movie "Manhattan" unwatchably creepy)
OT:
A kindred spirit frets in yesterday's Boston Globe.
(Thoughts, Mr. Shakes?)
- oddjob
Good Morning, Mr. Wraith,
I just finished reading (courtesy of The Cunning Realist) this rather lengthy entry into the Congressional Record by Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) who does a great job of tying a lot of information together to explain our current posturing about Iran. The last section about Hussein/Iraq in 2000, Venezuela in 2002, and Iran today are really interesting.
Don't know if you've seen it before but would be interested in your comments. Ditto a book I finished reading last night: Confessions of An Economic Hit Man by John Perkins who tells a very interesting tale about US and Dollar hegemony.
Man, this morning I really find myself listening and wondering when the shoe will drop!
Good morning, Lymond.
I just finished writing a very, very long comment to you that this wretched publishing platform wiped out. I don't think I want to re-write the thing in its entirety, but I shall summarize it.
First, thank you for reminding me about the book Confessions of an Economic Hitman. It's such a good read that I've just put it in the advertisements section of the sidebar as a recommended title. I also put there, by the way, the just-released National Geographic Society's book, The Lost Gospel, about the find of an A.D. 300 copy of the Gospel of Judas. This gospel was known to have existed, given that it was cited as early A.D. 180 by a bishop who condemned it because it did not conform to the emerging canonical presentation of the relationship between Judas and Jesus. The gospel is also a subtle bombshell because it puts yet another aspect of the entire Jesus story into line with standardized representations of other religious figures in Eastern story traditions.
But enough of that.
Congressman Paul's historical representations concerning the dollar and American foreign policy are generally accurate, but I cannot in any way support the use to which he is putting this exposition. He puts me off right away when he asserts that "...printing paper money is nothing short of counterfeiting..."
No, it's not; and using a term generally reserved for describing a criminal act to describe a constructive economic activity engaged by both private enterprises and by sovereign states over many hundreds of years displays both an ignorance of economics and a effort—willful or incidental—to bring harm to both a nation and to a global financial system.
When George W. Bush claimed that the Treasury instruments being held by the Social Security Trust fund were mere "paper" and that, by implication, this was sufficient evidence that the Fund was somehow already insolvent, he was speaking seditiously. He had no business whatsoever saying anything of the kind. Not only could it have placed in jeopardy the Trust Fund, itself, but it cast doubt upon the entire financial creditworthiness of a major sovereign state.
I hold Congressmen to no lower standard of requirement for responsibility in their public statements.
By the time Rep. Paul is wrapping up his lecture, he has said, "Using force to compel people to accept money without real value can only work in the short run," and he is certainly right about that; but I can assure him that, over the course of about a century, people have been eating real food and building real shelters and using all kinds of real goods that they received in exchange for greenbacks. There is no short run, here: real value exists within the currency, and I would challenge the Congressman to go to the store and use his good name and his gold watch to buy his food every day for the rest of his life. He would run out of both of those commodities in very short order, and he would then learn that value is quite relative, with the greenback having a whole lot more "real" to it than anything else he could regenerate on a continuing, multi-generational basis.
I can assure you, Lymond, that there are major problems with the currency right now. The neo-conservatives and, before them, the Reaganites, the Nixonites, the Johnsonites, and the Kennedy crowd abused the greenback to no end, but it is a darned durable creature, and that's because it's backed by the full faith and credit of a darned good nation.
I am preparing an article about the latest round of manipulation the Federal Reserve is pulling on the dollar to help the Republicans in November. Such Fed behavior is outrageous, and it really does contribute to a slow depletion of the power and goodwill our currency commands.
But we are not going to war in Iran because of dollars, and we didn't go to war with Iraq because of dollars. That's far and away too simple: at the end of the day, neo-conservatism doesn't give a hoot about the greenback. Neo-conservatism is about resource control. Currencies are merely a denominating mechanism. That's all they ever were, and that's all they'll ever be.
We have wars for things, for land, for control; not for the continued dominance of this currency or that currency. Those are just side orders of business.
Congressman Paul needs to read real conspiracy theory writings. He's barking up the wrong tree, and he's simply shaking confidence in the currency in talking like he does.
That's how I see it, anyway.
The Dark Wraith will now see if he can get this attempt at a comment to make it though the system.
"...printing paper money is nothing short of counterfeiting..."
I remember hearing this argument from a libertarian talk show host in the Philadelphia area back in the 1980's. I found the argument specious then and still do.
I am certain that were the congressman a little more thoughtful he'd realize what a damn fool he is for prattling such idiocy.
Just exactly what "value" are you describing that must be inherent in the currency??
I mean, come on, what can you do with a lump of gold that actually contributes in any meaningful way to your survival???
It's garbage!
Aside from barter (the only exchange system my non-economist self can think of in which the Congressman's argument really does come into play), a cumbersome system that most Americans wouldn't have the time of day for if they were forced to use it and nothing else, what - exactly - are you going to place your trust in that also has some sort of literal, inherent survival value without reference to the willingness of you to treat it as a symbol of value?
Gold?
I wouldn't.
Silver?
Platinum?
Diamonds?
Get back to me when figure out how to make your body run on those things when you've ingested them for survival......
Pfft!
- oddjob
Heavens to Mergatroid, DW. I hope you don't consider my last post to be an endorsement of Ron Paul & what he generally is espousing!! I can see how that might be after re-reading my comment, but I do want an invite for a cuppa java every now and again, and I don't want you to instruct your server not to feed my IP#, nevermind forbid me ever posting again!!
Ron Paul is, to put it mildly, an eccentric who, oddjob, was the Libertarian party nominee for president in 1988 -- that's why you made the connection. I certainly wasn't endorsing his "counterfeiting" accusation or gold standard push, among others, but I do see more to his "war about dollars" perspective.
To my mind the neocons are tools for the real powerbrokers of the corporatocracy to get/do what they want. Indeed, it is all about control of resources, but isn't it true that departing from PetroDollars to PetroEuros would create more havoc than the globe could stand right now? And it would seem (although I make no claim to being very knowledgeable about macroeconomic dynamics) that such a weakening of the $ position would send the US economy into an uncontrollable spin, no?
So, why were the Bushies looking for an excuse to attack Hussein and assassinate Chavez? We, more or less, had their resources under our control (Iraq's at least). It makes sense to me that their respective claims to sell their oil only for Euros would be the ultimate triggering mechanism. And, doesn't all the noise today about Iran fall right in line with that theme given what they say they are going to start doing later this month?
I remember that name now, Lymond. Thanks for the background.
I think I read that Germany had politely but firmly told Iran that a euro-denominated oil bourse was not something Germany endorsed at the present time. I have the impression the Europeans don't feel their currency is ready for that yet.
- oddjob
I wish I had found your blog a long time ago.
Good evening, Kathleen.
Word of this blog has spread rather slowly. It's not exactly everyone's cup of tea: the subject matter is sometimes a bit arcane, and my writing style is a bit on the obtuse side for some people's taste; but the regulars here are quite a special group.
You will notice that I place quite a bit of emphasis on dialogue within the comments, which stand as an integral component of this blog, unlike other blogs where the comments are to a large extent a secondary matter, almost like the background sound of an audience. This is the dialectic in live action, and it's a very cool thing... at least for me, but I hope for others, too.
From seeing your blogs, it seems to me that you are the kind of individual whose presence here is so desirable. (And I must warn you that we do tend to go off on tangents from time to time: "off-topic" is not really a meaningful term in good intellectual discourse anyway.)
The Dark Wraith trusts you will now be a regular here at The Dark Wraith Forums.