Special Analysis:
The Whispers of Bombs
It was something of a monster, transitional device between older models and a new, far more lethal kind. The difference in the bombs starting to show up now in Iraq and those of the past tells not merely of the evolution of the Iraqi insurgency, but of the history of U.S. military operations in Iraq. It speaks as well to how the mainstream news media presents the occupation and the context of it.The older style, "improvised" roadside bombs were often nothing more elaborate than one or several artillery shells strung together with some kind of triggering mechanism, perhaps a cell phone, or maybe just a pressure switch that would set the chain of shells off when a heavy object rolled over it. The graphic above is a one-shell, primitive affair, but nonetheless a machine waiting to butcher. Such bombs were bad enough: the shrapnel, the concussion, and the explosive heat catching things on fire could kill pretty efficiently. Even a well-armored Humvee could be flipped and/or cleaved open if the shells went off at just the right second.
According to the Voice of America, the one that killed the Marines was a giant of the old style, so powerful that it threw a 27-metric-ton amphibious armored personnel carrier like the one at left into the air, tore it open, and thereby killed fourteen soldiers inside. The scale of force necessary to do such damage is beyond what most people have ever seen in their lives, even those who have been around or operated heavy equipment. The effect of that bomb on the doomed amphibious assault vehicle in Haditha can be seen at left, below.The traditional, improvised explosive devices of the Iraqi insurgents are a bit tricky to set up. A pair of insurgents usually puts the device together along the side of the road,
lays the trigger on the road bed, and sometimes even puts a can in place to warn locals of the danger. Done at night, the operation is somewhat perilous for several reasons: the ordnance being used can go off; and there's always the possibility that a Coalition sniper is watching from an elevated position at some distance, patiently and methodically setting up a kill shot.A lot of those bombs were laid, though—so many, in fact, that it wasn't their kill rate that was as important as the perception that they were all over the place on the roads between the cities of Iraq: some of the bombs were in the ditches; some were mounted on the undersides of overpasses; some were just right there, waiting for an inexperienced or scared driver flying down the road to see the killer too late to swerve. It wasn't just the death: it was the fear.
Something new is coming, though. Plenty of old ordnance is lying around Iraq just waiting to be turned into crude roadside killers and murderous weapons hidden in the backs of parked trucks and carts, but those weapons of opportunity are now being supplemented by bombs made from shape charges,
which are essentially an explosive chemical—powder, plastique, perhaps even liquid—with a metallic component—shrapnel, if you will—all inside a container that focuses the explosion. A well-designed shape charge like the commercially available one at left can cause the shrapnel to fly at speeds of as much as 10 kilometers per second, thereby turning it into a hail of slugs capable of fully penetrating practically any armored vehicle's plating. Once compromised, the armor then becomes the tomb of personnel inside the armored vehicle as the slugs, having been slowed down in the initial penetration, rattle around hundreds of times inside, shredding flesh, while the killing heat, gasses, and other metal from the device take advantage of the initial breaches to pour in more death and destruction.Iraqi patrols at the Iranian border have caught smugglers shuttling shape charges into Iraq from Iran. In a find on July 20 of this year, not only were pre-fabricated shape charges seized, but so were the tools necessary for Iraqi insurgents to build them inside Iraq, thereby removing the time and risk involved in importing the devices. This means that the insurgency in Iraq has been gearing up not only to use more sophisticated weaponry, but it has also been laying the plans to create a self-contained, domestic weapons manufacturing industry right in Iraq, itself. This is important: although used, scavenged, and imported weapons will always be an important part of the insurgency's inventory, a localized weapons building matrix points to a far deeper, much more difficult occupation for the Coalition forces. Stopping inbound traffic at the Iraq/Iran border is difficult enough, given the enormous length of the border and the often treacherous, forbidding terrain of the frontier; but halting bomb building at the factory level inside a giant city like Baghdad is far more difficult.
On April 4, 2004, the United States led a full-scale assault on a huge slum called Sadr City in Baghdad. The seige was the culmination of a series of confrontations between the Iraqi occupation authorities and firebrand Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr, who stood accused of instigating the assassination of a rival cleric. Mr. al Sadr was protected by a provisional paramilitary group called the Mahdi Army, whose ranks comprised primarily impoverished young men armed with little more than assault rifles and some rocket propelled grenades. After a bloody battle in which Mahdi Army commandos and al Sadr himself holed up inside a mosque, an agreement was reached that allowed al Sadr to escape prosecution in exchange for him and his men quitting the mosque and entering the mainstream political process then being contemplated for Iraq. In an article dated August 15, 2005, the Chicago Sun-Times describes Sadr City as it is now as "one of the brightest successes for the U.S. security effort [in Iraq]." However, in an article dated August 18, 2005, the highly reliable, if unabashedly pro-Israel, news source DEBKAfile has this to say: "[T]he shape charges smuggled into Iraq from Iran are now locally manufactured in the Sadr City slum of Baghdad."
And so, as the war against Coalition forces enters yet another phase of more lethal weaponry being deployed by the insurgency, the mainstream media touts to Americans as one of the 'brightest successes' in all of our trials of the Iraqi War the very pit from which more young Americans will be wounded, maimed, and killed.
And the American people will perhaps enter yet another phase of confusion about how so much success paraded before them, not just by their government, but also by their trusted news sources, can lead to so many wounded, maimed, and killed young Americans. Eventually, perhaps they'll figure it out.
The Dark Wraith has spoken.
<< 21 Comments Total
I see Dark Wraith continues his work of spreading cheer far and wide......
- oddjob
Good Morning, Dark Wraith!
And the American people will perhaps enter yet another phase of confusion about how so much success paraded before them, not just by their government, but also by their trusted news sources, can lead to so many wounded, maimed, and killed young Americans.
It's hard to know how many young americans are being killed and maimed, because of the bogus ways they are fudging the numbers. Any soldier that hangs on only until they are on a plane headed to germany is not counted as dead in the Iraq war. As far as I can tell, they are not even counting the people who are maimed and broken, (some say more than 12 thousand) if they are, they don't print it often. (that number would horrify the populace). There are many people who think that the official death count is also fudged - who could tell?? All that individuals know is who has fallen in their circle of relationships.
There is a website that is attempting a count, by encouraging relatives to come and enter the names of their loved ones. There is a website here that tries to keep track of the inconsistancies between the number of soldiers reported(in the national networks), and the actual names of the soldiers who have been killed over there(in the local papers). Some of the differences are mind-boggling! How can they get away with this??
And then there are those who died from disease... which has always been more than those killed in battle... and is even today, more than 10 thousand soldiers. They never even mention them.
All we get from these neo-cons are lies, lies, evasions, flip-flops, and secrecy.
Some say neo-con means neo-conservative, some say it means neo-confederate. I say it means soon-to-be-convicted.
Could that be wishful thinking?
Good morning, OddJob.
Lord knows, I do my best to bring happiness to a world that these days just seems to be so full of melancholy.
It's a big job for one wraith, and sometimes I feel that I'll never finish the admittedly daunting task that lies before me. But try I must.
The Dark Wraith's work is never done.
Good morning, SB Gypsy.
The most troubling aspect of those injury and mortality rates is that they are part and parcel of a deep mistrust that is growing about the United States government's willingness and ability to honestly provide information of all kinds.
I have found a surprising resonance among academics about the loss of confidence in economic data of all sorts. This is catastrophic on two levels: first, if the data has become manipulated by the government, it completely wrecks the results of research that use that data; second, it chills future research and causes distortions as analyses begin to avoid data vectors that are suspect. Although there are private groups collecting information that is important, the cost of replacing the gamut of government-provided information would be prohibitive. Worse, although universities are still for the most part dedicated to open source data provision, the same cannot be said of private collectors, some of which have enormously useful numbers that we just aren't going to ever see in full, absent cracking into their computer systems, which is obviously entirely unacceptable.
Ahem.
Anyway, with respect to casualty counts, the part that stuns me about this is that, as important as it is for the public to know the true numbers, there is a far more important issue involved: the understanding of war is not advanced by propaganda. The war-related consumers of information are many: war planners, strategists, theoreticians, military hardware manufacturers, battle modelers, transportation and logistics experts—these and many other agents of the "military/industrial complex" simply must have the best information possible if they are to refine and advance war from something artsy to something that functions like a well-oiled clockwork machine.
This sounds cold, I know; but if we are, from war to war, to reduce combatant battlefield mortality and morbidity rates, minimize collateral damage, effectively and efficiently prosecute war, and ultimately defeat enemies, we cannot have lies be the truth of previous engagements.
Neither can we have ill-advised, poorly planned, and wholly irrelevant wars be our proving grounds for the real thing: fool-hardy adventurism wastes resources, propels politicians to misunderstand the purpose of war, and leads to a populace jaded for decades afterward, which can be catastrophic should the need ever and truly arise for a nation to sacrifice not just its young, but also its ideal of a world becoming progressively less violent generation over generation.
The neo-conservatives have done damage far beyond this miserable and ill-conceived engagement. They will be repudiated by historians; but sadly, they will never feel the full measure of the punishment that is rightly and justly their wage.
And that, I would submit to you, is why we should all hope for life beyond this one: that they, perhaps even as we, shall finally feel the pain of their sins.
The Dark Wraith should only hope.
I checked out that AP story from the Chicago Sun- I was struck by the final quote: Despite the lack of terrorist violence, Iraqi and U.S. soldiers constantly find bodies dumped in industrial areas, bound, blindfolded and shoeless. American commanders say Sadr controls a "punishment committee" that enforces vigilante justice against the cleric's opponents and those who violate religious strictures, such as those who drink alcohol.
And THIS is their concept of a great success story? Looks like Democracy is really taking root over there, under our tutorage....
Good morning, LindiBee.
I found that little snippet in the Sun-Times article to be morbidly hysterical considering the article's whole premise. I almost thought to myself, 'Do they even think about their own observations?!'
Lord.
The Dark Wraith does enjoy the conundrum of the continuing contradictions.
In the interest of fairness to other perspectives on matters I address in this article, allow me to reprint a comment made by Holly, and my response thereto, over at Big Brass Blog on the cross-post of this article.
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DW: I don't find Debka to be all that reliable...
— Holly in Cincinnati
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Good morning, Holly. The basis of my respect for information from DEBKAfile is that, even though the reporters convey a fairly hard-line, pro-Israeli view, they are not a propaganda organ. On any number of occasions, they have taken on the Israeli government's own version of events, and they have done the same with U.S. propaganda, too.
I'm not sure if many people—even those who read the DEBKAfile—know who the people are who do the reporting; but suffice it to say that Israel and other nations do not dismiss their reports out of hand. To do so would be to ignore not just reporters, but practicing and retired covert agents who still have their own assets deployed in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Skepticism is the order of the day with any news source, especially in these times; but to place too much doubt on sources like DEBKAfile and Aljazeera is at the risk of dismissing those on the ground who have contacts, resources, and deep understanding that is of great import.
To the matter at hand, the shape charges are showing up in Iraq. Multiple intelligence sources concur that they were initially coming from Iran. That does not mean Iran is some "state sponsor" of terrorism. The conical shape charge in my article is built by an American manufacturer. Shape charges are becoming a hot item.
The Iraqi insurgency's use of shape charge bombs is a matter, first, of learning how they work, and second, of increasing cost efficiencies by domestic mass production: continuing to import them from Iran or wherever is simply not as cost-efficient as producing them closer to where they'll be used.
Sadr City is a Shia stronghold. That might seem to indicate that it would not be a place where the insurgency, which most people assume is Sunni, would locate a production facility. That assessment is incorrect. The idea that Moqtada al Sadr simply walked away from his greater and militant aspiration in the Spring of 2004 is folly: the Mahdi Army will reconstitute as needed, and it will find coalition with others—as is already evident in the joint declaration by al Sadr and the Sunnis that they will reject the new Iraqi constitution.
The information about Sadr City being a zone of local weapons production is starting to trickle in from multiple sources. Although DEBKAfile is one of the first, people close to the U.S. military are also reporting suspicions of this growing problem right smack in Baghdad. As such, I'll stand on the DEBKAfile report with respect to this matter, and shall allow that others, in more general circumstances, may not find that news source as reliable as I.
The Dark Wraith accepts that disagreement on source value.
— ♠Dark Wraith♠
Thanks to Peter of Lone Tree for pointing out that my link went nowhere...I'll have to do more previewing in future!
here's the link.
...apologies...
Good afternoon, ♠Dark Wraith♠.
Excellent article!
Here's a part of one of your comments I wanted to add to:) ...as important as it is for the public to know the true numbers...
...and for them to WANT to know...
Shape charge manufacturing, in Sadr City, lessens the need for smuggling weapons from Iran. Hm... If this was acknowledged by the govt, we would have fewer excuses in which to threaten Iran. As long as we can blame the weapons, being found in Iraq, on Iran, we can keep the war drums thumping.
This admin would not want to admit that the Iraqi insurgency has the power and knowledge to cause such havoc. If it was mainstreamly reported, about the weapons and traps set by the "Saddam Loyalists" (oops, that phrase no longer in vogue) Iraqi insurgents, people might be disturbed by the thoughts of sending (or keeping) troops in those areas of discontent. More people might start calling for pulling out the troops. Money making opportunities might be lost... and what about the gasoline?
"...and what about the gasoline"
We have pretty much halted production on Iraqi oil for the time being, just by being there and having our soldiers be targets; and making the pipelines targets, because we're trying to take all their oil.
Seems pretty counterproductive, going in and smashing everything up, to get oil, when they pumped much more oil before we got there.
good post. nice discussion. very informative.
about the cheer here, mr oddjob----he is the dark wraith after all. black bunting and black balloons.
about your last post sb---it does seem to have worked out counterproductively for oil supplies to have invaded iraq. but then.......record, by a whopper, profits for oil companies. and shiny new tax breaks. good for someone. so far.
Good evening, SB Gypsy.
And the fun just doesn't seem to stop. I've been trying to get some reliable figures on what it's going to take to get the Iraq oil industry back up to the pre-invasion output levels. I have a ballpark from one source that puts the tab somewhere around $800 million, and that number just seems unbelievable. I'm digging around, hoping to find some number that doesn't make my eyes come out of my head. If it really is that much, it will take years before Iraq becomes a serious provider to the oil markets of the world.
Worse, though, is that, even if the world's oil producers were to up their output substantially, it wouldn't matter a whole lot. The problem, at least to some extent right now, has to do with a bottleneck at the level of the refineries: at least the American refiners are cranking at just about capacity, and every one of those refineries is pretty old, meaning that pushing them like we are right now is going to cause one breakdown after another. I'll have an article up early next week in which I'll give the important details on this issue, but suffice it to say that the confluence of factors right now is not favorable to cheap gas. I think it was Asia Times last week that said the only ones having a festival are the big oil companies and the OPEC countries (including Iran, of course): they're making out like bandits, while everyone else, from the consumers to the manufacturers, from the gas stations to the refiners, are getting creamed. Even the non-OPEC oil producing countries are gasping because they can't get production facilities on line fast enough to take advantage of these staggering world oil prices.
Speaking as a former entrepreneurial sort, I keep thinking to myself, 'There's gotta be a way to make a fortune off this misery.'
Then it occurs to me: Well, shoot! I could day trade in oil futures.
Then it occurs to me: Well, shoot! Just as sure as I'd go long 100 contracts, that would be the day the price of oil collapsed. That would be just my luck.
The Dark Wraith is not interested in tempting the Fates to teach him, once again, who's boss.
Good evening, Dread Pirate Roberts.
Speaking of oil profits, I'm going to be very interested in seeing the numbers coming out for the most recent quarter from some of these big oil companies.
Don't be surprised, however, if their profits aren't all that much higher now than they have been in the past: there are way to many tricks for getting taxable income down. I've seen a number of those methods, and there are many times as many as I've seen. By the time the oil companies get to their bottom lines, it could look like they're not doing all that well off this energy crisis.
Don't believe it, of course: they're doing quite well, thank you. Probably enough so that they can add a little Christmas bonus in the cards they send out to their favorite war-mongering politicians this year.
The Dark Wraith thinks it's only appropriate that the oil companies remember those who brought them their current good fortunes.
Wraith writeth:
"I've been trying to get some reliable figures on what it's going to take to get the Iraq oil industry back up to the pre-invasion output levels".
Why worry? Venezuela is a lot closer and we could just march in...oh, wait. That country has a democratically elected president and we couldn't very well.... Now why did I just start thinking of Haiti? I know why!
It's..."CYNICAL SUNDAY".
HI DW, long time no type.
It turns the stomach to realize that "practice makes perfect" applies so well to warfare. The longer we occupy Iraq, the better the insurgents get at killing us, and the better we get at killing them and so on and so on.
A small handful of insurgents in Northern Ireland kept the british military occupied for 30 years. The number of insurgents in Iraq is far greater, and the clouds formering, far darker.
Good afternoon, Left Behind Child. I am glad you've come over to post a comment. I'd been wonder what had become of you.
You are right on the money: the insurgencies (and there are many) and the Coalition are on learning curves of death delivery. Both sides are becoming more effective, although the sheer firepower advantage of the Americans and British might make that appear not to be the case.
Worse is that both the Sunni Arabs and the Coalition forces have great incentive to keep this nightmare going. For the Sunnis' part, the conflict animates their frustration at the loss of power they suffered with the removal of the Baathists from power. For Bush and Blair, this war is all that remains of their legitimacy as leaders. In the United States, Bush oversees an economy that grows as the common people suffer. He has failed to protect the nation from a monstrous attack on the continent, he has failed to deliver good-paying jobs in abundance, and he has failed to sustain us as the putative moral and economic leader of the free world.
I see no way that the neo-cons will quit Iraq, for they have nothing else. Withering as the support for this mad war is, in its absence, the Bush Administration has nothing. The spawn of unjustified, debilitating war, twisted and ugly as it is, offers Mr. Bush his only claim to a position he never should have been given to begin with.
And that, my friend, points to a long, bloody, and useless continuation of what is now going on. Demonstrators, activists, congressmen, intellectuals, and all others condemning this droning body count cannot overcome the desperation of a man who has already shown that, not only will he lie, but that he will sacrifice thousands of American lives to keep his kingdom.
The Dark Wraith is sickened of such a person who would be cut from that awful cloth.
The worst part of it is he at least the second (third?) such to appear in our lifetimes (I'm thinking of Tricky Dick as the first, although I realize he campaigned on a platform of "peace with honor").
- oddjob
Your poll:
"The likelihood of a terrorist attack"?
"It is most likely to happen during 2006.
52.6% (10 votes)"
I wonder if anyone else besides me came to the conclusion that perhaps the reason the above answer leads in the polling is because it will then be closer to election time.
dark one......you don't want to go on with his version of the crusades? aren't you patriotic?;)
bush has done right by his supporters. oil barons get richer and christian fundies get 'intelligent design'.....bwahahaha....gotta laugh....don't wanna cry!
peter, thats my thinking. nicely orchestrated attack before 2006 elections.....and i use the term 'elections' rather loosely.
Good evening, Anonymous.
I am of two minds right now on the highest probability time frame for a terrorist attack. On the one hand, logic tells me that it will, indeed, happen during the election season next year. However, I have multiple and independent reports that al-Qa'ida communications traffic is at almost a fever pitch right now, and the messages are carrying code terminology that indicates a major anti-American event some time in the next month or so.
The telling part of that communications traffic is not occurring right now, though. If it's really pointing to an imminent event, the traffic will all but vanish shortly before the hit date. In other words, if this fever pitch vanishes into dead silence, then I'll start to worry.
A problem I'm having is that sources are not in agreement on what weapons will be used. I've got one set talking about giant gasoline trucks; I've got another group mentioning private jets or turbo-props loaded with explosives; and then, of course, I've got the one source claiming al-Qa'ida has already brought as many as maybe 10 small nukes into the country via Mexico.
In one way, it doesn't really matter which instrument of death and mayhem they use. Any attack is going to give Bush the excuse he needs to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age. More importantly, any attack on the continental United States is going to give the neo-cons just the excuse they need to turn this country into one giant gulag... to the extent that they haven't done so already.
I'll tell you this much: I have no faith at all in that bunch of Washington/Texas incompetents to deal effectively, properly, and summarily with terrorists. The majority of Americans seem to be quite forgiving and understanding of a President who couldn't stop a rag-tag bunch of nutcases on 9/11; but I'm not nearly such a tolerant person. If the United States would impeach a President for lying about having his meat chewed, this country surely should have hanged a President for letting 3,000 civilian Americans die on U.S. soil.
Call me Medieval, but if the majority wants a return to "old fashioned values," then let's start not with holding elected officials "accountable"; instead, let's start with making elected officials examples of the wrath of a citizenry that was utterly failed by its leader.
The Dark Wraith sort of likes talking a Medieval line once in a while.
Call me Medieval, but if the majority wants a return to "old fashioned values," then let's start not with holding elected officials "accountable"; instead, let's start with making elected officials examples of the wrath of a citizenry that was utterly failed by its leader.
YEAH! That certainly works for me:)