Monday, May 09, 2005

Analysis:
The Ancient Future

A long time ago—centuries, it has been—the poor, the wretched, the hopeless one day came to the end of their fear. As a lazy, opportunistic philosopher many hundreds of years later would describe it, they came to that place where they chose not to live any longer on their knees, the cattle of wealth, the chained labor of users. Many were the children of enclosures, whereby the landed aristocracy put an end to the centuries-old practice of allowing the workers to live on the land of the lords. With such acts of selfish, greedy cruelty, the free and unfree alike, who had come even to have claim of their own to land, were sent on their way, welcome only for the plantings and the harvests.

Between the devastation of the Plague and the evictions from the manors, perhaps a quarter of England's people would be on the road, without a place of permanence, without a place of belonging. The civil courts of England had long before, in the early part of the century, decided that those who were not noblemen had no standing to plead their cases. In so doing, the crown had left the peasants with the full understanding that they were beneath the protection of law.

Perhaps the angry mob that day knew ownership was for the wealthy, while rage is forever the last comfort of the masses.

These angry men were led by one named Wat Tyler. With his righteous act of murdering a tax collector who had stripped his daughter naked, he was undoubtedly the one who started that awful day of bloodshed in the streets of Kent; but his act was really only a touchstone: his was merely the spark set to the dried kindling of resentment that had been festering for years like rotting flesh in the grave. His act was one of those "tipping points," where a physical system, long past the point where it should have done something, finally does so with just the slightest nudge. For so long, so many wrongs had been committed that the humiliation of Tyler's child was perhaps terrible, but certainly not unusual.

In the hours and days after Wat had made himself forever a wanted man, his sympathizers set upon the merchants, the judges, the lawyers; and all of these men reviled for their ways would pay, some with their very heads in an orgy of spontaneous and unreserved violence.

Some times of anarchy last for years, some for only moments. Wat Tyler brought focus to the Peasant Rebellion so that it could last and be used to set the unfree free, to demand of their king that he see them, that he understand their fury, that he change the ways of the world that he surely mastered.

King Richard II bravely went to the mob as it gathered and began to be a coherent beast, a force with its own leader, perhaps even a body with its own threads of vision about what should be, what could be, if only the king would first listen, then agree or die.

Richard met Wat and swiftly had his throat slit. As Wat lay gasping in the horror of his own death, Richard spoke to the mob, exhorting those desperate and now leaderless men to believe him when he said that he was of their mind, that he was of their nature and beliefs about the rights they had so long been denied by the merchants, the judges, and the noblemen. Richard told the stunned and wanting army of the lost that they should go home and await his commands.

They did so.

And in the days that followed, the king sent his soldiers to their places of life and squalor; and these rebels were taken to the streets—some fifteen hundred of them—and they were hanged for their women, for their children, for their neighbors, and for every manner of voyeuristic scum to see.

That was the settlement after the morning that had breathed the fire of the Peasant Rebellion of 1381.

After all, Richard could not change the future: he could ensure only that it would come.



In this 21st Century, the United States will become a militarized, industrial-political state, setting loose upon the world an imperative to respond in kind or be subjugated by the engine of resource control. Giant nations that insist upon another way will starve for want of the raw resources of production. Small nations that resist will be called "failed states," and they will, indeed, fail under the crushing burden of sanctions and, finally, intervention.

Within America, the tax burden will swiftly, if perhaps somewhat fitfully, shift entirely away from income generated by capital, and the burden will move almost entirely to income generated from labor. The arguments will seem reasonable: certainly, profit is only to the end of providing people with jobs and income, so the taxation of corporate earnings is nothing less than a deterrent to the creation of the jobs that ultimately produce the income that is the real heart and soul of the wealth of a nation.

Surely, if people are to invest money for their retirement, how could it be reasonable to impose upon them a tax for earning capital gains? Surely, it is so much more the average person who receives dividends and rents and estates. To tax income earned by capital is to cut right to the marrow of what it means to be a society of owners.

Workers—those with skills that cannot be replaced by the thinking and the brute machines of the new world—will be welcomed to the ranks of the employed only when they are needed. They will be sent to the roads when they are not; and they will be infused of an understanding that their lot is their own, that they have bootstraps that they can use to lift themselves up, if only they would try harder, be better, have more education, act more responsibly.

As in every age since His time, Christ will give expression to the suffering of life; yet, as in every age since His time, He will offer no more. But it will be enough; and enough will be abundance to the faithful, whose ranks will grow ever larger as the harshness of this world becomes unbearable without the promise of the next.

And then someday, the flashpoint will come.

That lazy, opportunistic philosopher mentioned earlier, whose name was Karl Marx, pointed to what comes: from his professor Georg Hegel, he came to understand what we call "historical inevitabilities": just like the well-order universe of all things inanimate, societies will come to the same ends when presented with the same predicates.

Those who say they are for the working people must do what is necessary: even as they cannot change the future, they can certainly ensure it. Those who rebel in that moment of future fury will come to their end as their loved ones, their children, their neighbors, and the voyeuristic scum watch, all of them in some curious way relieved that the world will stay ordered, even as that order commands them to their chains.

And so the future will come; and it will come, once again.



The Dark Wraith has spoken. May you rage against destiny.

<< 35 Comments Total
 oldwhitelady blogged...

Dark Wraith - Your post is terrific, as usual. It does fuel thoughts and, hopefully, ideas.
You said:
Within America, the tax burden will swiftly, if perhaps somewhat fitfully, shift entirely away from income generated by capital, and the burden will move almost entirely to income generated from labor.

This is certainly happening, now. In my state, corporations have all sorts of deductions they can take to save them from paying much tax. The average person has very few. I believe that if a corporation takes all the deductions and would end up having the state owing it, it does not get a check, but I think it could transfer that excess to the next year. I'm not sure on that, though.
As far as the laborer being used when needed and then sent off to the road, that is happening more and more often. The future could get uglier than the present. Unfortunately, everytime anyone disses the current admin regarding just about everything, the media tends to blacken their their names.
As you wrote, Those who say they are for the working people must do what is necessary: even as they cannot change the future, they can certainly ensure it.
Too bad we don't actually find many politicians with high ethics. They say what they believe will get them elected, then... they change their rhetoric to "screw the voters - I'm right. If you don't agree, tough!" I've gotten several letters like that from my representatives.:)
However, I believe our current admin has gained the love and respect of their ardent followers through fears of foreign attacks, terroristic evildoers, and suiciders.
I heading out to locate my pitchfork and torch:)

Mon May 09, 02:05:55 AM EDT  
 oldwhitelady blogged...

That's supposed to be
"I'm heading out to locate my pitchfork and torch:)"

DOH!

Mon May 09, 02:07:19 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Old White Lady.

It's interesting that you bring up the issue of "tax abatement" plans that have been used at the state and local level for quite a few years, now.

That is precisely a backdoor means of moving the tax burden away from income generated by capital, and it is so poorly known just how much revenue is lost through this "incentive" program, particularly at the level of school districts. There is a lot more I need to say about this subject, and I'm sure I'll be saying it as time goes along.

That one is a particular sore spot with me, especially when these corporations set up shop as long as the tax abatements are in place, then pack up and leave a city as soon as the going gets good and there's a greener pasture elsewhere.


The Dark Wraith needs to take an aspirin before getting wound up about that whole fiasco.

Mon May 09, 02:41:37 AM EDT  
 oldwhitelady blogged...

"Tax Abatements" YES! Now, why couldn't I think of the word "abatements" when I was typing?

Mon May 09, 03:14:52 AM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

During the ten years I've lived in Mass. this topic has arisen a few times, always to reasonably heated debate in the legislature. One of the biggest corporations here, Raytheon, threatened to move elsewhere unless they got some tax relief early on while I was here, but unfortunately I can't remember whether that was ever rescinded or not (they got some fairly mild stuff, if I remember correctly). It also arose in regards to new sports stadia. At the time it did the House Speaker was a conservative Democrat with a particular dislike of professional sports teams that came to their legislatures demanding handouts, and basically put it exactly that way.

The Patriots' owner built his new stadium with his own $$$, getting only some help regarding public roads leading to the stadium from the larger highways nearby. Since he has ownership, and since the team does so well, it's had the effect of making him rather a bit more well off than he would otherwise have been.

- oddjob

Mon May 09, 09:54:30 AM EDT  
 roger blogged...

nicely put, dark wraith. i posted a similar screed back in january at class warfare

we have, if anything, accelerated down that bad road since then

Mon May 09, 11:19:58 AM EDT  
 Rook blogged...

Good morning Dark Wraith.

Your well written, thoughtful piece exudes one fairly strong feeling: Hopelessness.

It would be the one thing I would pick up, since that is the state I have found myself in quite often of late.

Mon May 09, 11:31:21 AM EDT  
 Kat blogged...

Hmmmm... kinda puts my post about how much bleaching my tooth hurt in its proper place.

Mon May 09, 11:53:06 AM EDT  
 PeterofLoneTree blogged...

Your somewhat more eloquent description of Hegel's "thesis, antithesis, synthesis" idea as "historically inevitable", if I understood it correctly, leads me to ask, "Did we ever/Will we ever have a chance"?
At the risk of appearing pessimistic, I believe the Third Reich is alive and well and might very well survive for the "thousand years". It was not abolished in 1945; the madmen in charge were merely replaced. Or perhaps THEY were never in charge in the first place. Is there a long waiting list to join the "Gnomes of Zurich"? Perhaps they go by a different name these days. But then what's in a name? A genocidal maniac by any other name would smell just as bad.

Mon May 09, 01:54:21 PM EDT  
 DuWayne Brayton blogged...

I just don't onderstand the greed factor consuming our great republic. It is possible for a corporation to "make it" withoput screwing everyone in there path. Kellog is a prime example. They have kept the city of Battle Creek alive. Most if not all of their operations are consolidated in BC and instead of demanding huge tax incentives to stay they have given to the community. They have built parks and rec centers, they have also built tourist attractions and a large concert venue. They also take reasonable care of their work force. I'm not sure about their profitability but they don't seem to be in trouble.

Why, for gods sakes can't other companies follow suit? Why do the neo-cons and others want to regress to some sort of fuedal state? It is f*cking ridiculous, when we live in a nation as prosperous as the U.S. that we should end up more like a third world country than the land of the free.

Mon May 09, 05:37:59 PM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

One of the things the Boston Globe frets about is the steady loss of Boston landmark corporations which has been going on since shortly before I arrived ten years ago. A prime reason for the fretting is the likely loss of corporate support for the city that attends this loss.

- oddjob

Mon May 09, 05:50:24 PM EDT  
 DuWayne Brayton blogged...

Dark Wraith,

Ok, if this comes out sounding rather foolish please keep in mind that I am a high school dropout, rather above average for dropouts but a dropout just the same. When I was growing up my parents were very adamant about debt, the absolute minimum of debt neccasary to make oneself reasonably secure and comfortable is what should be maintained.

I don't really understand why maintaining high levels of debt can be such a prevelant business strategy. What sort of magic economic theory causes this to make any sort of sense.

I am also curious about what these tax incentives are worth that a corporation will actually find it worth packing up and building a new multi billion dollar manufacturing facility elsewhere. My dad works as a safety supervisor at a GM plant renovation in Detroit. They are doing a major overhaul that includes structureal maintnence. They have, in the last 15 years spent 386 million (give or take a few hundred thousand) effectivley making the plant like new. The estimate is up to 446 million by the time the project is done. In contrast the general cont. on the jod told my dad that it would likely cost 3.2 billion to build the resulting facility from teh ground up. The main reason I think that GM is choosing to renovate rather than rebuild is to minimize the costs of raising GM's retail value before they finally have to sell. I am really interested to know how much tax liability we are talking about to make up for billions in a relatively short time period.

Tue May 10, 12:33:45 AM EDT  
 DuWayne Brayton blogged...

This post has been removed by the author.

Tue May 10, 12:34:18 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, OddJob.

This matter you've brought up about long-standing symbiotic relationships between cities and native corporations is little mentioned, these days. I can think of many examples of old relationships now gone.

A number of such relationships can still be found; and there are even a few that are relatively new and growing. However, many are vanishing as profit trumps loyalty.

An interesting way to look at the association of a business with a city is as a relationship between corporations: the municipality is one side, and the company that has been there for a long time is the other side. In economics, we call the synergistic increase in profits of corporations in close proximity to one another "agglomeration economies." You can see companies taking advantage of such economies wherever you find clusterings of car dealerships. You also see this when large superstores like Walmart, Meijer, and Giant Eagle all plop themselves within a tight spatial frame.

At first blush, it would seem that such competitors being so close to each other would do harm to each, but it really doesn't work that way. Modeling corporations locating close to municipalities highlights where the benefits of agglomeration economies come into play: because they draw the same types of "customers," being close together gives potential customers more incentive to come to the area.

But as you noted, many corporations are no longer interested in the economies of long-standing spatial proximity to specific municipalities, and the reasons for this aren't all that hard to fathom.

Boston will, of course, survive without the corporate benefactors upon which it has relied for so long. I fear, though, that the city will be diminished in small but growingly noticeable ways by the losses. Perhaps one day, those corporations that left the city of their legacy will understand that in their departure, they, too, will have lost something essential to the soul of their enterprise.


The Dark Wraith wonders if that sense of loss will ever occur in the soul of the soulless corporation.

Tue May 10, 12:40:20 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Treban.

As I noted above in my correspondence to OddJob, there are a few examples of companies actually developing what will be enduring and beneficial relationships with cities. Microsoft is a case in point: it has obviously benefited Redmond enormously.

Sometimes, the benefit has undesirable side effects. A good example is the unbelievably huge RV sales and service dealerships that are located in and around Richmond, Indiana. The largest of those dealerships has a lot so expansive that it can be seen—or so I've heard—from near-Earth orbit.

That dealership and the others that are realizing those "agglomeration economies" by locating nearby have done good for Richmond; but they have also, in some almost undefinable way, drained the life blood from that city. On the occasions when I've spent time there, I've had this almost indescribable feeling that the city is sad: the downtown looks nice, but it looks nice in the way that a run-down neighborhood looks nice when all of the buildings are painted while the people who live and work there have had their personal lots in life improved not a bit.

On the other hand, you can see examples of large corporations that really have dramatically—almost stunningly—made whole areas much better. A case in point is The Limited, which has literally turned a veritable trash can of the east side of Franklin County, Ohio, into a yuppie showcase as far as the eye can see.

But even there, an old adage applies: urban and suburban renewal does not eliminate poverty; all it does is displace it. Many are the cities where central city gentrification has merely pushed the poorer neighborhoods outward, away from the central business district, along major streets leading out of the city centers.

This becomes a major and problematic dynamic when you have the big, central municipality funding the push of the poor outward, and you have at the same time beneficent corporations in the suburbs doing their own versions of municipal upgrading out on the periphery. What happens is that the poor neighborhoods fracture into small, isolated pockets, or the poor parts of town filter out to the most undesirable places, which are often (at least in the Midwest) toward the south and southeast. The pattern of migration can vary, of course, but the corporations that are taking an interest in a town are not taking an interest in the marginalized peoples of the entire area: at best, the corporations are cultivating a desired composition for their workforce and a desired structure for the local political landscape.

Still, it's obviously better than the alternative, which is corporations that don't give a darned and pack up without much of a thought as to the damage their departures create. It's a pity there aren't more corporations that have an interest in enduring relationships. On balance, it seems to me that they do more good than harm, especially as they become more and more a part of the communities in which they locate their operations.


That having been said, the Dark Wraith will not, however, be inviting any corporations to locate their operations on this blog.

Tue May 10, 01:05:21 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Peter of Lone Tree.

My good man, by saying that the Third Reich never really ended (and by possible implication, that it never really began at the time historians say it did), you sound almost and darned near... Masonic.



The Dark Wraith should again point out that he is a Freemason.

Tue May 10, 01:08:36 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Kat.

Having been one who has suffered many and life-threatening tooth problems over the years, I can recall times when the Rapture itself would have been of no particular interest to me when I was in the throes of a 104° fever with a mind-consuming pain in and beneath my teeth.

The Archangel Gabriel, himself, could have appeared to me, and I would have roared, "Either get me some health insurance, or get th' Hell out of my sight, you glowing white twit!"

Naw, tooth infections really can make all things apocalyptic a bit less important than they probably are.


The Dark Wraith has now self-extracted a few teeth, so he will be much more deferential should an angel show up.

Tue May 10, 01:15:07 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Guy Andrew Hall.

As I was preparing to publish this piece, I realized that the tone of it had precisely that aura of hopelessness.

I've seen that feeling of despair expressed, if only subtly, in some of your recent writings. It is interesting, and in no small measure telling, that I don't see that in the writings of the younger bloggers. Thank God for them: they can carry this fight with a fearlessness that literally scares the Hell out of me.

I swear to God, my friend, sometimes I see anew those kids getting shot in the back at Kent State.

Yes, I have in my mind the most dreaded of all things that could weigh upon my will: I have the forethought of grief.


But so long as we're alive, Guy Andrew Hall, we can do two things that will make a difference: we can predict the future by creating it; and we can change the future by predicting it.

What that means in practical terms is that, this time, we won't even need to see the riflemen raise their weapons before we scream, "Look out!"


The Dark Wraith cannot, however, guarantee that anyone will listen.

Tue May 10, 01:45:40 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Dead Pirate Roberts: Welcome to The Dark Wraith Forums. You guys have a very cool blog going on over there at Dharma Bums.

I find it interesting that you used a fine example from a somewhat later era. We can find these peasant rebellions all through history, and not just in Western societies.

One of the most fascinating examples comes from pre-Columbian Meso-America. Apparently, there was some kind of ungodly revolt against one of the blood sacrifice cults running some city in Central America. About all we know concerning what transpired and who did it is that it happened with lightning speed, it was extraordinarily violent, and the people who did it were of an uneducated, peasant class.

Now, how do we know that they were uneducated peasants? It seems that, after they had literally torn the city down to rubble, they tried to rebuild it; but they had no idea at all about writing, so they put the blocks and pillars back up with no understanding of how the narratives written on the blocks and pillars went together to form coherent thoughts in the hieroglyphs!

Apparently, though, their rebellion was successful, on the whole, considering there was no further record, cogently written or otherwise, of peasants having their hearts chopped out as sacrifices to the gods of the elites.


The Dark Wraith truly does love a happy ending.

Tue May 10, 02:08:23 AM EDT  
 Luke blogged...

Good morning Dark Wraith from the shores of the southern hemisphere.
This is indeed a fascinating look at future world. I haven't read all the comments by your contributors but I did note one, where the author alludes to the "hopelessness" of it all. And that was my impression on first reading your piece. That's really all I have to say at this point.

Tue May 10, 02:16:00 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Treban.

Tomorrow, I'll get back to you with an example of what in finance is called "gains to leverage"; and I shall also tell you about the huge tax advantages of using debt rather than equity to finance business projects. You'll be somewhat amazed.

Perhaps "annoyed" would be a better description.



The Dark Wraith needs to retire for the evening, now.

Tue May 10, 02:28:51 AM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

I wish to correct a misimpression I left by offering the example of Boston. While everything you say is true, and corporations up & leaving is traumatic when they have historical roots in a municipality and have been a benefit to the municipality's quality of life, what has happened in Boston has not been generated primarily by the departure of extant corporations (although there are indeed examples large & small of this, the most recent probably being the imminent departure of Atlantic Monthly magazine - a Boston literary icon that published people like Whitman and Twain - to Washington, DC), the main generator of these changes has been coporate takeovers and buyouts. When I arrived I promptly set up a checking account with my local branch of The Bank of Boston, a Boston bank begun in the 1700's. While I did it primarily because I thought their account was most beneficial to me, one of the things I truly loved about the whole thing was that it was a Boston financial icon. Since my arrival in 1995, Bank of Boston has merged with BayBank (a new and rapidly expanding Boston area bank), which was bought out by Fleet Bank (an even more rapidly expanding bank begun in Rhode Island that had an exceptionally nasty history towards its small account customers like me), which was bought out by Bank of America. Fleet had also bought up other New England banks with offices in Boston before buying out BankBoston (as the merged entity was known for the three or four years of its existence). Thus, where there had been a number of banks with homes in Boston or with significant presence here, they have all been replaced with a bank whose headquarters is in North Carolina.

Where do you suppose most of that corporation's largesse will go?

This is just one example. I could repeat these stories with high-tech, retail merchandising, insurance, etc., etc.

Historically it was the corporate honchos who ran the city (usually behind the scenes), and they WERE the "Boston brahmins". While they haven't run things since the 50's, their legacy nontheless remains in the cultural and historical landmarks of Boston, the Public Library, the Boston Symphony and Symphony Hall (acoustically, said to be one of the world's best auditoriums), the New England Conservatory, the Museum of Art, Trinity Church, etc. The list goes on & on.

Who will fund today's such needs if all the corporations in Boston are branch offices of businesses with headquarters in Cincinnati (Procter & Gamble slated to buy out Gillette once the regulatory hurdles have been managed)?

- oddjob

Tue May 10, 09:20:41 AM EDT  
 SB Gypsy blogged...

Dear Dark Wraith

~~~~
Holly in Cincinnati said...

I want to know what Mr. Dark Wraith thinks of Ford & GM becoming "junk."
~~~~

You never did weigh in on this one, and I was curious about your take on this too...

I read an article this morning about how the Ford Foundation was giving away 400mil+ this year, how can they do that and be "junk"

... and how does a stock become a junk BOND?? (I really have avoided all these markets, because I just always figured they were rigged for the wealthy, and that you need to spend ongoing hours studying to know how to act)

Tue May 10, 12:26:58 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

I thought this pretty well answered some of the questions floating around out there; Wealthy investors and speculators first.

That cartoon dated from October of 1998.

Ten Worst Corporations of 2004 is worth reading, although the formatting making doing so a bit tedious.

Tue May 10, 01:33:38 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

My crystal balls says the Dark Wraith is already working on the following for tonight's article.

Real wages in the US are falling at their fastest rate in 14 years, according to data surveyed by the Financial Times.

Stagnant salaries push more families towards the breadline.

Meanwhile, Halliburton gets $72 million bonus for Iraq work.

Talk about getting Cheney'd.

Tue May 10, 06:04:42 PM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Confound it, Mr. Goat! I can't get a decent headline ready without Ye Olde Towne Goat and Bugle Press beating me to the dateline these days.

SNORT!



The Dark Wraith needs to buy out the rival Goat and Bugle.

Tue May 10, 06:13:08 PM EDT  
 My Pet Goat blogged...

...sounds of bugles...

Hear Ye, Hear Ye!

Ye Olde Towne Goat and Bugle Press announced today the sale of the town beacon to Dark Wraith Inc. Goat and Bugle, originally a single shingle town crier, was founded in 1873 by the infamous Billy. By 1900, Goat and Bugle employed over 120 criers throughout various eastern seaports, and was starting small regional newspapers. Now, over 125 later, the Goat and Bugle is the most widely acclaimed source of conservative liberal news across the states.

Little is about Dark Wraith Inc., although Dark Wraith is the reported owner of the Dark Wraith Forums, as well as Transfusions R US, a for profit blood donation conglomerate with over 1500 mobile plasma centers. Profit from these holdings have leveraged Dark Wraith into the holder of the largest Spam depot in the western hemisphere.

Details of the deal are unknown, but widely expected to include a substantial stake of the Dark Wraith's Spam holdings.

The Goat and Bugle is most recently best as the publisher of My Pet Goat and for its refusal to refer to the current President as anything but Special Ed. We hope the Wraith continues to uphold the same dignity and unbiased reporting.

Tue May 10, 10:34:27 PM EDT  
 oldwhitelady blogged...

Oh my! "My Pet Goat" has been bought out? I was just going to praise the paper for bringing the article about "Halliburton gets $72 million bonus for Iraq work" to the light of enquiring eyes. I read that with shock... Shock, I know not why, because nothing surprises me anymore as to the current state of (quite frankly, anything) in regard to "Special Ed" and his minions.
"Special Ed" IS a good name to use, by golly!

Tue May 10, 10:48:09 PM EDT  
 oldwhitelady blogged...

Oops.. it's "The Goat and Bugle"...

My fingers type without the brain powering them, obviously.

Tue May 10, 10:49:50 PM EDT  
 Joseph blogged...

Don't worry. Just today I saw some American or UK economist, with a stupid grin on his face, saying: 1)no way there will be a recession; 2) the growth of the US economy will be of at least 3% this year; and 3) the US deficit, with China and Japan lending so much money in fact is a sign of vitality of the US economy... maybe it was part of some comic relief period?

Wed May 11, 07:23:59 AM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

From my perspective it looks like the most common problem I can think of regarding behavioral sciences (it also appears endlessly in behavioral ecology). Two different researchers are given the very same sets of limited data and they then offer diametrically opposed explanations for the datas' causes, both of which seem plausible and are almost impossible to test in a convincing way!

- oddjob

Wed May 11, 08:45:30 AM EDT  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, OddJob.

You are, of course, correct about the two economists with the same data coming to diametrically opposing conclusion.

In this case, however, one of the two economists is the Dark Wraith.

That means the other economist is wrong.

Wed May 11, 11:24:02 AM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

Wholly OT, but this, in its way, I deem to be very big news!

- oddjob

Wed May 11, 07:52:43 PM EDT  
 Gary blogged...

Wow! I can't add to what is already a perfect stream of thought.

Excellent!

Fri May 20, 10:46:37 AM EDT  
 Anonymous blogged...

Explain your characterization of Marx as "lazy."

Thu May 26, 10:13:09 AM EDT