Stock and Bond Prices Sucked Down as Gas Prices Pump Up
The NASDAQ index dropped by more than three-quarters of a percent, setting it once again on a collision course from the north side with the 2000 point line with which it has been flirting off and on for weeks. The broad-based sell-off continues the trend set last week, when the equities markets began to hit the skids after what amounted to a one-day rally that had the good-times bulls coming out of the woodwork, only to get paddled by day after day of round thumpings since.Dark Wraith CyberGloss
The NASDAQ is an entirely electronic stock market that deals primarily, but not exclusively, in the stocks of a very large number of small- to medium-sized companies.
While the bulls were getting their horns sawed off in stocks, the bond markets were taking their share of head smacking on Tuesday, too, with bond prices dropping, which pushed the yields up, especially on the longer end of the yield curve,
where prices and the associated yields tend to indicate the market's assessment of the broad, long-range economic outlook. Although there was some attempt at a rally during the day, Senate testimony by Alan Greenspan, along with other, equally joyless indicators, caused investors to run for cover, selling off bonds, thus pushing their prices down for yet another session in what has come to be a virtual day-to-day certainty that bond prices have no place to go but into the bond market's equivalent of the sewerage system.Dark Wraith CyberGloss
The "yield curve" is a graph that shows interest rates for various Treasury bond maturities. The more the curve arches upward, the greater is the difference between the rates on long-maturity government debt and short-maturity government debt.
As far as Alan Greenspan's testimony today, it was largely more of the same scare-the-pants-off-everybody blather about the future of Social Security. His emphasis during this session was on the need to slash benefits for future retirees unless something is done right away to shore up the system. It remains to be seen if any of the ruling party legislators will take the courageous step of removing the cap on personal income subject to the Social Security tax, a change that would, by most accounts, make the system solvent until near the end of the century.
In other news, the American Automobile Association reported on Tuesday that gasoline prices across the country are within a penny of record territory, now. As warmer weather begins to set in, demand for heating fuel will decline, but this could be more than offset by increased demand for gasoline, deisel and jet fuel as Americans begin their spring and summer travels.
Should gasoline prices prove a significant deterrent to the usual upswing in travel, many businesses that service vacationers and other travelers will be hurt, which will put more downward pressure on the economy. The already ailing auto manufacturing sector may see yet more soft earnings, as might passenger airlines, and perhaps even the hotel and restaurant sectors. If enough industries become entangled in adverse consumer reaction to the never-before-seen gas prices, job losses and a general slowdown in business activity will almost certainly follow, and the economy will be hard pressed to avoid recession, despite the complete absence in the mainstream media of that word from the list of possible outcomes of the current economic trends.Dark Wraith CyberGloss
A price increase in one sector of the economy hurts consumers only to the extent that they cannot substitute something else for that product when its price rises. The extent to which people can and will switch away from a product is called its "price elasticity." Necessities tend to be very "price inelastic," generally speaking.
Published 3/16/2005 02:13:00 AM
<< 24 Comments Total
(even the poll works in Opera, so rest easy Grandma)
Our gas prices went up $.04 today. At one point, I truly believe that if GWB had walked in about 6 customers would have verbally shredded him...never have I heard so many folks practically cussing the president and his oil connections. One executive/professor type (all I know is he wears a suit and speaks like he has an education) had not thought beyond Bush/Cheney/oil profits when I mentioned the falling dollar he got this "My God, it all makes sense" look on his face and told me I was a "very intelligent young lady"...considering he appeared mid fourties(ie. my age) I'll take the compliment.
So is the MSM now floating $3/gallon by summer, or is that just an ugly rumor that's hit the rounds here in VA? My personal guess is $2.60(in places where prices are at present about $1.95).
Shall we start a lottery with the closest guess on the first day of summer winning some prize? Perhaps access to the Spam stockpile for the lean times? Though I'm a fan of TREET myself if I want canned meat of dubious origin.
You're here, Wild Clover! You were one of my test subjects. I figured that your browser, settings, and computer constituted one of the challenges for this blog, especially now that it's on the new server. The Dark Wraith Forums has survived one of its major hurdles!
Some folks were having all kinds of problems getting to the "Leave your comment" screen, and I was pretty much convinced that something was really wrong with the architecture of one script I'd written, making it work fine on the old server but not on the new one. Fortunately (or perhaps I should say, as usual), it was just that stupid Blogger grinding to a halt. We'll see what happens from this point forward.
Now, I enjoy Treet™, too. In fact, a local grocery store was selling cans of it for a buck a piece, so I stocked up. I now have eight cans stacked beside a six-pack of Ramen Noodles right here beside my computer monitor. The cat doesn't particularly mind sharing the desk with the foodstuffs; she understands that this means we're going to be eating well for the next week.
About gas prices. As I noted before, the oil companies have for a long time, now, been engaging in an ebb-and-flow pricing strategy, working prices upward to get people used to certain thresholds before pulling them back somewhat, only later using each successive price point as a new lower bound. The pattern this time has been quite similar (although, anecdotally, somewhat more rapid in overcoming a major pricing break point) to what happened at a dollar a gallon some years back. Now that consumers nationwide are safely "comfortable" with, if not overjoyed by, two dollars a gallon, the periods below that will be fewer and farther between. (Of course, gas has been above two bucks a gallon for quite some time in a few areas of the country; but now we all get to suffer.)
$2.60 a gallon by this Summer? Easily. This could happen quite suddenly if there is a major world "crisis" as a pretext. And where is the likely source of a crisis? China.
I, too, have been noticing an awful lot of hurtful comments pointed at our wise and ever diligent George W. Bush II. I try my best to listen to the people at all-night diners and around the gas stations talking, and what I'm hearing does not bode well for the man with the 10-gallon hat on the 2-quart head.
What does that mean in practical terms? Oh, that one's easy: Mr. Bush is now vulnerable; and if there's anything the media likes more than licking Republican neo-conservatives' boots, it's blood in the water. Now, any one of a number of scandals that have been festering will become fair game.
And The Dark Wraith Forums will be right there to report on the feeding frenzy.
Let the good times roll.
The Dark Wraith prepares the neon All-U-Can-Eat signs.
PoLT likes Wild Clover's idea about a gas price lottery and predicts $2.44/gal. altho PoLT is horrified at fellow student W.C.'s preference of Treet over Spam. My cats equate Treet with jack mackerel. Those who are puzzled by the reference to jack mackerel are invited to read "A Connecticut General from Big Sur" by Richard Brautigan.
Guess that should be "A CONFEDERATE General from Big Sur". Duh.
My God, it all makes sense
Ms. Clover speaks truth to power and sees results!
The poll isn't working right for me (IE & Windows XP). I get a message stating my "voting area" (8) isn't an option in this poll, despite the fact that I can see it as an option, plain as day. Access to comment screen is slow. Otherwise all seems well.
- oddjob
test
- oddjob
I'm also having a peculiar experience after I post a comment. Normally after I post a comment I'll try to return to the home page (by clicking appropriate prompt at the bottom of the comment thread I've added to), and I've never before had any difficulty doing this (aside from Blogger-caused vexations). Now however, I find that when I do this I am brought back to the last DW Forums home page that was on the blogspot address (ie., the home page headed with the 3/14 announcement that the Forums are moving to a new service). Thus I have to leave altogether and go back in from the web to get back to the "real" homepage.
- oddjob
Good morning, OddJob. The poll is repaired. Thank you.
The Dark Wraith is such an incompetent hack at coding.
Good morning, OddJob.
Oh, my Lord. I hadn't even used that route to get back to the blog! It should be working, but you're saying that it's kicking back to the dead blogspot site that stopped being the real site on Monday?
Geez, that's a real problem. Let me try it and see what needs to be done to fix it.
The Dark Wraith pours a cup of coffee and gets back to work.
Good morning DW,
Lymond checking in to report that DWForum loads up faster than ever with Opry on a dial-up connection (no cable or DSL here in NH hills). But getting Comments to open up has been a challenge.
I remember as a kid when 15 cpg gasoline came with windshield wash, oil check and a friendly chat (boy, were those different times). The sinking $ is clearly the large factor in oil/gas price increases, but isn't the possibility of finally getting at ANWR another factor? It seems that public pressure has been a big factor in the voting of many of the mindless whores that seem to make up our Congress these days.
And, there's nothing like high gas prices to get sheeple riled, regardless of the fact that ANWR oil wouldn't make a nickel's worth of difference.
wild clover, you're in a position to make a big difference! Keep it up...each person you educate will talk to a few others, and who knows from there.
--Lymond
Good morning, once again, OddJob.
Such a little, tiny, itty, bitty, insignificant, miniscule, barely-there piece of code buried in the bowels of this blog. I found it right away. I had simply not re-written a snippet for the new site.
It is now fixed.
The Dark Wraith should not be allowed even near a computer.
Good morning, Lymond.
Do you realize that younger folks today have no idea of what gas stations used to be like?
I am struck, as I think about it, by how much the service station used to be part of the American experience, and it is no longer that way at all except in small-town and rural places. Even the American painters Edward Hopper and Norman Rockwell (geez, now there's a pair I never thought of using in the same sentence!) depicted the gas station in the context of our experience as a nation and as a people.
Do you remember gas wars? Boy, those were the days.
Hanging out at the gas station was one of the rights and privileges of being an old geezer. I was quite excited as a youth about the prospect of spending a couple of hours every day doing that, then wandering down to the doughnut shop to chat with people, then going to the diner in town to sit at the counter and talk some more and hear what people had to say about everything.
Long gone, those days are.
But then again, The Dark Wraith Forums is here, now.
The Dark Wraith pumps the gas and talks to the regulars.
[Huh. Looks like the ol' station could use a cleaning.]...
[Naw.]
geez, now there's a pair I never thought of using in the same sentence!)
Agreed! Do please make sure to stay out of Mr. Hopper's neck of the ethereal woods on your traverses Mr. Wraith, I would hate to ponder his thoughts on said pairing!
- oddjob
Home as usual!
- oddjob
Ah Mr. Wraith...
Come to lovely SW VA where geezer friendly gas stations abound. Granted, they are self-serve, but benches out front are home to geezers of all ages. In fact, several have lunch counters and a table or two inside for bad weather. Now, you'd probably have to brush up on your gun and hunting terminology, but I have faith in you.
The lowest gas prices I recall(unless there was a gas war on) is .299. Folks who would like the experiance of old full service should visit Southern NJ, where the law dictates all stations be full serve. You do need to request an oil check or window washing, but it is/was(it's been a couple years)still available. And the interesting thing is the prices are roughly the same as here.
Comment loaded super fast this time around. I think Blogger just gets constipated from time to time and it's no reflection on you. I've always used the back button to return from here-I never got the full forum returning through the link, but Ill see what happens here.
Well, it worked for me but it seems like going around the barn to get in the back door. Much faster to use the back button.
And where is the likely source of a crisis? China.
This is a long read, but well worth the time for anyone interested in the topic of China, etc.
No Longer the "Lone" Superpower: Coming to Terms with China
As far as Bush being vulnerable I wonder how far the fake news stories will get? Propaganda and deception, definite warning signs of fascism.
------
The Dark Wraith pumps the gas...
I'm surprised you're not trying to blame the poor cat, although if you're feeding her Treet....
Good afternoon, Mr. Goat.
Naw, it's that cheapo fake tuna cat food that gives my cat the wind something fierce.
That fake news story has me in something of a conundrum. In so many ways, this Bush Administration demonstrates such an appalling lack of worldliness, knowledge, experience, and self-control that I cannot help but think that this is just another example of their natural amateurish ways that simply don't yield to greater control even in the face of life-changing experiences.
Perhaps, though, that is how fascism begins: an adolescent reaction—all too often rage, all too often what is felt inside instead of what is known to work through the counsel of others—propelling choices almost inevitably to disastrous consequences, then simply refusing to accept responsibility, and thereby refusing to grow up.
Lying (and that is what the fake news story is really about) surely has its consequences when one is caught. That's one of the cool things about maturing: figuring out that one does not need the aggravation that comes with getting caught doing things that are wrong.
And at the same time, I have met people who are utterly immune to the lesson that it's better not to have aggravation that can be avoided. For the Bush Administration, it would appear that there is no end to the punishment they're willing to take... as long as there is even the slightest, perhaps even delusional, prospect that their immaturity will somehow slip by unnoticed.
The Dark Wraith seeks, at least for himself, still waters.
[Which, of course, is why this blog is right out in public for all the fascists to know whom to shoot.]
You are right, Wild Clover. It is just as if this Blogger thing gets constipation. That's what happens when servers are overloaded: things go in, but they can't get out fast enough, and the whole system slows down until that ugly blast-a-log happens, often attended by inhuman sounds of agony, ecstasy, and no small amount of indignant surprise.
And I should note that one of my favorite things to do is stop in small towns where I can still find an old-fashioned gas station and a small diner.
And it's not the pie at those diners that's the attraction, despite what is portrayed in some movies like Million Dollar Baby and Radio; its the CHEESEBURGERS! Crisped-on-the-edges, dripping-with-grease, white-bread-bun, nothing-but-the-meat-and-cheese, can-I-have-all-four-on-one-plate, no-I-don't-want-the-fries, god-how-come-my-stomach-hurts-now CHEESEBURGERS.
The Dark Wraith must now return from fantasy land.
For the Bush Administration, it would appear that there is no end to the punishment they're willing to take... as long as there is even the slightest, perhaps even delusional, prospect that their immaturity will somehow slip by unnoticed.
It's worked for Rove up to now, if you were in his shoes would you stop?
(So where did Mr. Wraith develop this addiction for greasy spoons, anyway?)
(That was oddjob.)
I think the fundamental problem is that this administration is not getting enough of the punishment it deserves. But, with the 61 million bozos that voted for him and MSM in the pocket, what has changed? Is today any different compared to any other day in the last four plus years?
For some of us it is, but for many (the loyal sheeple) life goes on in ignorance. Blame it on stupidity, fear, faith, etc., but some people just don't get it.
For all the deception a person has to wonder how many straws it eventually takes to break the camel's back. But then again, is the physiology of a camel the same as the devil?
Good afternoon, OddJob.
After my father passed away, I worked a number of jobs while still attending high school, which I finally left at the end of my Junior year. Among the many places I worked, my worst and most memorable was at an all-night truck stop out by the big interstate. The smells of places like that are still both repugnant and terribly attractive to me.
My mom worked there, too, until the night her diabetes—an ailment about which she had said and done nothing as it progressively ravaged her—finally brought her down onto the linoleum floor between the eating area and the checkout counter, right near where we used to sit to eat a free meal when we didn't have any food money.
I kept working at the diner for a while longer, trying at the same time to get decent grades at the college that had taken me in as some kind of odd experiment in admitting a high school dropout who got 800s on the SAT. That whole thing didn't work out, and the years would go by with various jobs like soldiering, preaching, and even stand-up comedy for one night.
None of the jobs back when I was young ever came to much good. That was a forewarning, I suppose, of things to come as a teacher and consultant; but that's quite alright.
In the middle of the night, working at that diner, I would step outside the back door to shake myself off and listen to the night traffic on the big road. I always liked the sound of the trucks with their tires singing on the asphalt as they flew by, always going somewhere, always heading back into the silence from which they had emerged. I imagined that some of them were going to wonderful, far-away places; and I imagined that some of them were on their way home.
Either way, it was nice to think about, and it still is.
The Dark Wraith heads off to the store for a while.
(oddjob gets a lump in his throat.)