Stocks Dive Hard, Bonds Lay Lard,
Dollar Value Hurt, Oil Prices Spurt
Investors bailing out of stocks didn't stop at the bond market to toss in their money, either. Bond prices slid, too, pumping yields on short- and long-term debt instruments toward Earth orbit. Typically, in a market where investors are concerned about a softening economy, they'll move money out of stocks, causing their prices to fall, and into bonds, causing their prices to rise. This so-called
"flight to quality" didn't happen today, primarily because of serious news about the world demand for U.S. dollars. South Korea announced that it was looking to better yields on its currency reserves than it can now realize with the billions of U.S. dollars it holds. This means that currency markets anticipate that South Korea will soon begin to move its greenbacks into the world markets, causing what is already a glut of the no-longer favored dollar to worsen.Dark Wraith CyberGloss
A flight to quality is occurring when investors sell riskier securities, like stocks, and use the proceeds to buy relatively safer securities like bonds.
Perhaps even more troubling is that the South Koreans, by openly reducing their holdings of U.S. dollars, are demonstrating their diminishing interest
in using American dollars they earned through exports to the U.S. to purchase Treasury securities. In other words, the South Koreans are signaling that they no longer wish to finance the Bush Administration's year-after-year budget deficits that have been caused in overwhelming part by irresponsible tax cuts and military operations.Dark Wraith CyberGloss
Many countries that sell more to the U.S. than they purchase from it use the net U.S. dollars to buy American securities, the most signicant of which are U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds.
Adding to the economy's growing woes today was oil, which shot up to $51.15 per barrel, due in part to concerns about possible OPEC production quota cutbacks. More importantly, though, the weakening dollar causes assets to rise in dollar price,
since it takes more of a devaluing currency to purchase a given amount of a good. Substantiating the sliding dollar as the culprit behind the surge in the price of oil, the dollar price of gold rose smartly today, too. With commodities prices rising as they are, the money moving out of stocks and bonds throughout the day today could be finding its way to hard assets that will better weather the twin effects of a flagging U.S. economy and the headwind of approaching inflation. The signs, already noted extensively here on The Dark Wraith Forums, are becoming too obvious to be ignored; and the investment community has begun to react in earnest to what might be very difficult economic times ahead, whether or not the Bush Administration is too distracted by political fence-mending and sabre-rattling abroad and radical overhaul of the Social Security system here at home.Dark Wraith CyberGloss
A weakening dollar means that it takes more dollars to purchase a given amount of oil, gold, foreign currencies, and imports.
Published 2/22/2005 10:47:00 PM
<< 60 Comments Total
But, but didn't Darth Cheney say that Reagan's Administration proved deficits don't matter????
- oddjob
Good evening, OddJob.
Well, the Reagan Administration might have "proved" that deficits don't matter in the same way it proved that being a genocidal monster (like Negroponte) can be a plus in future public service opportunities.
Moreover, if the Reagan Administration "proved" that Reaganomics (and GAWDALMIGHTY, I SO hate that term) can be compatible with an economy that grows (and never mind that little stock market crash during his Administration), then the Clinton Administration—wherein the economy did better and far more consistently—proves that Reagan's deficit-riddled, here-then-there, quasi-Keynesian/quasi-Volkerian model just totally sucked by comparison.
But that's something you'll never hear the Republicans admit, probably not even if refusing to say so would cause them to be cast into the fires of Hell on Judgment Day.
The Dark Wraith will miss them sorely in their absence at the Heavenly Economics Conferences held every year in Paradise for all Eternity.
[Next year, I'm going to the seminar on Angelic Fiscal Policy Initiatives.]
I was listening to MarketPlace on NPR last night when I heard about the South Koreans getting skittish about the US Dollar holdings. Then one of the first things that snapped into my mind was DW was right in his predictions late last year about what early 2005 would bring.
The NPR commentator said that other major holders of US Dollars were looking carefully at South Korea and most believe Japan is the next to run.
Although they did have some conservative on there saying that all this doesn't matter and that the economy is still on its way to recovery even with the devauling dollar. At which point I just declared him a fool and kept driving.
In really good news though the sale of my house closes tomorrow at 11 AM CST. :)
-Gary A
It feels good when something goes right, doesn't it?
- oddjob
Do you have a source for the CPI which INCLUDES energy and food prices? Or a chart which has ONLY these items? I'd like to know what the rate of inflation is on 2 of my 3 necessities.
Good morning, Gary.
I meant to ask you, when you said your house had been sold, when the closing would be done. Sometimes, that little window of time can be rather stressful.
Thank you for relating that National Public Radio is addressing the dollar devaluation issue. Years ago, when I would listen to Morning Edition and All Things Considered, it seemed that there was a lack of substantive discussions on the technicalities of economic matters.
I haven't listened to NPR in years; and in some ways, I miss it. In the late '90s, it appeared to me that they were taking a turn to the right in their efforts to be fair and balanced. I don't know whether or not I would still see it that way; but it sounds as if NPR is trying to get into the slow-motion, emerging crisis of the U.S. dollar's slide.
I suppose the apologist for the Bush Administration's incompetence is doing the best job he can under the circumstances. When your foolish efforts to play with matches cause your house to burn to the ground, I guess it doesn't hurt to say, "Well, at least we won't have to run the furnace tonight."
The Dark Wraith stokes the fire.
Good morning, Peter of Lone Tree.
This is the CPI Summary sub-page of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. You'll get about as close as possible to the wellspring of the raw data at this site as anywhere, although the narrative format and the categorizations can be a little confusing to some people at first. Within a little while (depending on when I get this response up to you), BLS will be releasing its latest CPI numbers for the most recent reporting period, so you'll see a cool snapshot of the actual data coming out of the pipeline and the reaction of the markets to it.
Right now, the stock and bond markets are expecting a jump in the CPI, so the bad news is already impounded in the prices of stocks and bonds. If the CPI doesn't go up as much as traders and investors are expecting, we'll see a good day on the markets; if, on the other hand, the CPI takes a hard leap up that is more than what the concensus is expecting, we'll see a really, really bad day.
If the CPI jumps by about what the big-dog money people think it will, then other market factors (the usual day-to-day information) will dominate the day's price movements.
Keep your eyes on the numbers, folks.
The Dark Wraith watches the data stream.
Good morning, once again, Peter of Lone Tree.
Now, here is one of my biggest beefs with the government, especially these days. When I gave you that link to the BLS CPI Summary page, the page was reporting that the CPI data was still embargoed, which means the BLS couldn't release it yet. Well, lo and behold, CNN had already reported it. Isn't that nice? Information is given to certain media outlets while it's still embargoed on the BLS's OWN WEBSITE.
Now, adding a totally weird twist to this is the following statement in the CNN article on the latest CPI numbers, which has a dateline of 8:53 a.m. (EST) this morning: "Bond prices rallied, however, and the yield on the 10-year bond fell Wednesday as those concerns retreated on the CPI report."
Now, does anyone notice what's creepy about that statement?
The Dark Wraith needs to upgrade to the market tickers CNN uses.
Am just not enuf of an economist yet to notice "creepy", but something seems illogical. CNN whitewashing the financial as well as political news and getting insider poop? The very idea! Punched up site and noticed one very interesting thing--fresh fruits and vegetables, which I use only a little, fell almost 12%. No wonder I'm feeling a pinch in the grocery check out lane. Canned cat food: .27 to .34, bread: .88 to $1.09, Spam: approching $2.00. PoLT finds it significant there is no key on board for "cents".
I learned to type on my dad's late 1940's era portable typewriter (the one he used in college), which I also used in college. That had a cents key. I haven't seen a keyboard with that character in quite a while (although I imagine there's an html code that will create it).
FWIW, I also don't see what's creepy about the report. Yields fall when bond prices rise, so it isn't that. Would it have to do with the fact that the 10-year maturity is cited rather than some other one?
- oddjob
Good morning, OddJob.
Yes, the markets are doing exactly what I said they would: the CPI came in at a reasonably low number, about where the markets thought it would, so the stock and bond prices are just sort of meandering aimlessly right now, having no major corrections to make from earlier expectations about inflation. Specifically, without worse-than-expected news about inflation, bond prices shouldn't fall way down, and they might even recover somewhat from yesterday's beating.
That's what CNN said they did today...
But, OddJob, didn't you notice that the CNN article told us what bond prices DID on Wednesday (that's today) as a result of the CPI numbers? That article had a dateline that would not have been able to say what the bond market did for the day because the trading day hadn't started, yet! CNN was telling us that bond prices recovered as a result of the uneventful CPI numbers, and that's about what they should do (absent other issues that might come up through the day), but CNN couldn't report this as fact before it happens.
As I said, I need to upgrade to the market tickers that CNN uses.
The Dark Wraith prepares to know the road ahead.
It looks as though someone at CNN is due the Nobel prize in Phyics.
It is especially worrying that South Korea have decided to reallocate some dollars. Of all the greenback gluttons I would have thought they were the most under our thumb.
No, I didn't note that. I have read or heard so many market summary news accounts over my life that I guess I've gotten inattentive. You are of course quite correct. It makes absolutely no sense for them to write a market summary news account before the trading day has even begun!
- oddjob
Good afternoon, Mr. Shakes, and welcome back to the Economic Policy Wonk Factory.
Given that South Korea has abandoned the good ol' Hew Hess of Hay (to do a bit of L'Il Abner), I should probably say something about South Korea's new daddy.
Yes, indeed, I certainly should.
Or I could let you tell me what's going on behind the little lady moving out of Uncle Sam's house of dollars.
Could it be Europe and that hunky euro strutting down the economic street of the 21st Century?
Could it be Japan and its older but tried-and-true yen?
Could it be China and the underappreciated, self-deprecating yuan?
Or... or... could it be... gasp... a... a... market basket of currencies?!
The ssssslut!
Say it ain't so.
The Dark Wraith awaits some speculation.
I don't think it's the Yuan, or any of the other dollar pegged currencies (Yen included) that have set little Miss Korea's heart aflutter. If she is becoming nervous about her relationship with the dollar, then why would she pin her hopes on currencies that are equally out of equilibrium, only in the other direction?
No sir. My money's on Mr. Euro. He may not be as sexy as Uncle Sam, but he's a cosmopolitan young chap, loved by over 200 million thrifty Europeans.
In other words, he offers interest rates that actually give a positive real return, and is backed by a diverse array of powerful economies. As such, he represents the first real alternative to the dollar as a global currency since WWII, and has arrived just as the U.S. is busy spending the dollar into oblivion.
The Big Bad Euro is here to stay, and Miss. Korea won't be the last to fall for his manly charms. Why, I hear even Mother Russia has been eyeing the young blade with more than matronly affection.
If the stampede for the exits is not too quick, we may just about get out of this with a whole skin. But I ask myself - who wants to be last in a burning whore house?
Well no one wants to be last of course, but what do you do if you're the madam??
- oddjob
lol. I dunno. Grab the money box and head for the hills?
And the sad part is that little Pryomaniac Georgie could have been kicked out by the American Electorate bouncer; but Georgie got to the good stuff anyway with his neo-con matches, and here we are, standing around cooking marshmellows on the front lawn.
Did anyone remember to grab the cat on the way out?
The Dark Wraith calls the fire department.
[Whaddaya MEAN, 'the number's been disconnected due to budget cuts'?!]
Speaking of running from a burning whore house, this article makes an interesting read.
Collapse of the American Empire
I would like to know DW's take on this, but I doubt that we could ever have reasonably thought of ourselves as the hegemon in perpetuity even a decade ago (as the writer observes) for the simple reason that even then we were the world's biggest debtor nation. We switched to that status virtually overnight during the mid-80's; and when I heard it on the news, even though I was in my mid 20's I knew that a very unwise threshold had been crossed by our country.
The one with the money gets to make the rules, and the debtor most certainly does not have the money!
- oddjob
Creepy indeed. I caught the date problem and find the possible scenarios that answer the question of how one can report on events all creepy to varying degrees. The most benign is that CNN has been reading the predictions of the Dark Wraith, and went with an article dealing with the most likely results....bad , dishonest journalism.
One can also remove one's tinfoil hat and go with the theory that our "free" markets are actually anything but, and the daily trading resultas are decided in advance by some super-rich, shadowy figures that are actually pulling most of the strings in the country.
I had a third crazy theory, but my original post was lost when the 14 mo old hit the keyboard and I've forgotten it.
Darn it, Wild Clover. Although I like the one about CNN reading my posts to get their own articles going, I'd like to have heard your third theory. If you remember what it was, let us know.
And by the way, I am rather amazed by some of the places from which daily visitors to this blog are coming from time to time.
One way or the other, even lots of people in the hotel doesn't make it any less creepy, sometimes.
I guess the moral of the story with CNN retelling the day's events before the day begins was best summarized by one of the shadowy men in the television series, X-Files, who said:
We're in the business of predicting the future; and the best way to predict the future is to create it.
Of course, given that I'm a Freemason, I suppose I shouldn't be one to talk about other groups' conspiracies.
I have enough of them on my own plate.
The Dark Wraith gets down off his high horse.
Good evening, Mr. Goat.
I enjoyed reading that article by Kirkpatrick Sale to which you provided the link, above. The piece gave some good, albeit standard, reference points; but I must make a few comments about, and take some exception to, oversimplifications Mr. Sale makes.
First, on a somewhat technical point, the Norse who went a-viking to Greenland were driven out by a superior group that was more expansionistic, more violent, and somewhat more hegemonic: the Inuit, whose constant, slowly debilitating attacks on Norse encampments finally pushed the Norsemen to leave Greenland for good. As I somewhat flippantly noted long ago in my avatar as the Selig Wraith in the Medieval History Forum of About.com, one could almost imagine the last Norse ship pulling out of some Greenland harbor, with all the passengers on board finally and vigorously mooning the coastline of that unlovable and hostile land.
Although speculative to a large extent, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the same fate met the Norse who tried unsuccessfully to colonize Nova Scotia in the same era of history.
And in that era, the Norse had mixed successes in their adventures aroung the Northern Atlantic. They traded quite successfully with their genetic cousins in Ireland, and the Norse colonization of that island ended in the Norse blood becoming folded into that of the natives; but curiously, hardly a trace of Norse culture or language survived the intermixing on the Emerald Isle.
In England proper, the Norse influence was extraordinary, and it forever shaped the entirety of British heritage in everything from the language as we speak it to the way in which we understand Christianity through the eyes of our Anglo-Saxon ancestors.
Now, this may seem as if I am nitpicking upon a small point of Mr. Sales' article, but my comments above are to a broader end. You see, sometimes an empire doesn't end just because the name of a nation-state associated with that empire ends.
Roman may have "fallen" in A.D. 467, and the "culture of Rome" might have vanished in some very notable and culturally important ways; but the Empire lived on in many other ways.
When the Visigoths overran Rome, they were confronted with an enormous body of law, Lex Romana, that the Romans had built over many centuries. The Visigoths did not dispense with this monument; they merely changed its name to Lex Romana Visigoth—the Roman Law of the Visgoths!
The Medieval Catholic Church was nothing if not a political/religious expression of the political/military expression of the Roman Empire, and no one would argue the huge, pervasive influence of the Church upon all things of Western Europe through the Middle Ages and into the Renaissance.
More importantly, the schism that created a wholly separate panoply of Christian Catholic churches in the East certainly survived and flourished wonderfully, and many still do to this day, carrying as they do a delicious blend of many pragmatic things Roman with many more mystical and academic things Oriental.
Moving away from Western Tradition, we can look at the almost obvious chain of Empire that bound the Toltecs, the Aztecs, and the Mayans, even if that chain is denied by some with political/anthropology leanings philosophically opposed to such an idea.
The point here is that empires are far too often modeled along the lines of some ethnically dominant group, but this misses the point of what constitutes an empire, particularly as it has an existence as a property, with a set of rights and claims. In such a light, an empire is transferrable, and that is precisely what occurs in many circumstances. The empire doesn't "go away"; it merely becomes the property of an inheritor by means peaceful and ponderous or otherwise.
This explains and gives far more depth to Mr. Sales' point about "heterogeneity" being one of the factors in an empire's demise. It is not that diversity—be it ethnic, religious, or something else—corrodes and ultimate causes an empire to collapse from within. To the contrary, the heterogeneity often provides one or more potential receptacles into which an empire can be transferred for revitalization. To an outside observer, the disappearance of the empire into the new receptacle may appear to be the "end of empire"; and the later emergence as a noticeable entity of a powerful force from the new receptacle may appear to that same outside observer as the "emergence of empire." In fact, it is the same empire, just under new ownership!
More confusing to a casual observer is that, in the small time-frame of a mere couple of centuries, two distinct, apparently separate empires may play on the same stage of the world, when in fact they are two faces—one fading, one brightening—of the same empire. This is unquestionably what has happened over the past one-and-a-half centuries with Europe and the United States.
In summary, the emergence and continuity of empire is sometimes more complicated than can be described in "rise and fall" terms. By looking at the broader meaning and existence of empire, we may be better able to understand it as an important aspect of world history.
Of course, that means little if one is struggling against empire, since understanding it takes us only so far toward the desired end, which is to crush it.
The Dark Wraith has lectured long enough.
Intriguing.
If you prefer you can answer this question in the open forum (where this particular discussion might be better placed). How are you defining the term "empire"?
- oddjob
I suppose you can make a parallel comparison between arguements for evolution vs. creationism in the world of empires. If so, does bush represent a phase of unintelligent design?
Good morning, Mr. Goat.
Naw, the design was intelligent enough; it was just one of those things that happened in production that the quality control inspectors allowed through.
You could almost hear them say: "Aw, let it go. Nobody will even notice."
The Dark Wraith awaits the Quality Assurance Disciplinary Board's ruling on the aftermath.
The Dark Wraith awaits the Quality Assurance Disciplinary Board's ruling on the aftermath.
A member of the Quality Assurance Disciplinary Board watches tape of bush's latest manifesto.
And we can hear the sheep, in a hypnotic monotone, saying...
Yes, Evil Master... I hear, and I bleat.
Now there's a turn from another time: Instead of the Cartesian 'I think; therefore, I am," we have now come to 'I hear; therefore, I bleat."
The Dark Wraith checks the cookbook for mutton recipes.
Or, "mutton, mutton, who's got the mutton."
Last count: bush 60 million; Kerry 57 million.
Speaking of mutton, this is a cool sounding idea. We ought to be able to find many places around the country to try this.
The quest for a new form of green energy has taken a significant step with the purchase of a 25,000-acre sheep farm in the Australian outback.
Good evening, Mr. Goat.
It's worth a try, I suppose. Energy from animal and human waste has been tried for many years with varying amounts of success. Although I am a huge fan of entrepreneurial effort, I shall, however, sit this one out as far as investment prospects are concerned.
In my early days as a consultant, one project I took on was trying to raise money for an ostrich farm. I was a real sucker for a great pitch line, and the principals of the company had me convinced that ostrich eggs and ostrich meat were going to sell like hotcakes.
They didn't.
Hotcakes tasted better. So did about everything else, as I recall.
I probably would have had more success with the sheep thing. At least I could have had better material for pulling the wool over prospective investors' eyes.
The Dark Wraith can make funnies in retrospect.
[In very long retrospect.]
I'm sulking 'cause you all are making fun of some of my best friends. Which reminds me of my first driving test. The instructor asked me if I could make a U-turn. I misunderstood and replied, "Nope. But I can sure make her eyeballs bulge!"
You from Montannnaaa PeterofLoneT?
Lone Tree is just down the road apiece from Iowa City--farm country with horses and cows and pigs and SHEEP and chickens.
Ques. What's the difference between perverted and depraved?
Ans. Perverted is when you use a feather. Depraved is when you use the whole chicken.
PoLT is tempted to ask the Dark Wraith about livestock futures.
Dear Abby,
The Dark Wraith Forums has become a sheep joke engine. Please help.
— Beefing on the Blog —
Dear Beefing on the Blog,
Ewe started it; ewe must now live with it.
The Dark Wraith sheepishly wanders off.
A fitting question and answer PoLTree.
Never a boaring moment around here, but actually the article I linked really didn't have anything to do with sheep.
I shall prepare for bed. If I have trouble falling asleep I will attempt to aid the process by contemplating the significance of the term "virgin wool".
And I'm still trying to figure out who let the ostriches into the blog lobby.
The Dark Wraith buttons his mutton chops.
And I should also note that yet another one of my former students stumbled onto this blog a couple of weeks ago.
Is that YOUR blog, she asked.
'Blog'? I don't even know what a 'blog' IS, I replied rather sternly.
The Dark Wraith covers his tracks.
[If it weren't for the fact that I have the reputation I do, this hotel would give me the reputation I have, anyway... whatever the heck I mean by THAT.]
Breaking news from my neighboring state:
West Virginia Announces discovery of a New Use For Sheep.
wool.
Sorry, couldn't resist. Especially after the mention of the state of Montana, where men are men and sheep are neeervous.
OT from the OT- why would the title bar at the top of the forum be covering the first sentence of text in the first post/article?
Good evening, Wild Clover.
Thank you for letting me know that there was a problem with the blog, tonight. I made a couple of visual/graphical changes, and apparently one of them isn't recognized by Firefox.
I have done a temporary repair until I can figure out if there is a way around the Firefox problem.
Let me know if you can see the main body of the blog okay, now.
The Dark Wraith never rests (especially when he's just messed up, once again).
I noticed the title bar overlap also in Netscrape. Last night it was shifted down and to the left, to the point that the thread title was completely covered. This AM it appears centered in the page and moved up slightly. The bottom edge now goes right through the top line of the thread title.
Those dang sheep must be shoving against the correl too hard.
And as soon as I posted that comment and refreshed the page it is back to normal.
Awright! I was trying something cool, but it works only in Internet Explorer. Firefox and Netscape can't interpret relative elements very well (pictures or font sizes), so those two browsers can't combine graphical objects relative to one another; they just stack them one under the other, covering up any text that's sitting there minding its own business.
So much for the lovely little artistic trick I had in mind.
The Dark Wraith goes back to the drawing board.
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