Fed Blinks
In the face of a looming inflation threat, this would mean that the Federal Reserve Board, despite its repeated public statements that it forecasts robust economic growth, now believes that the economy is beginning to falter seriously enough for the Fed to stop worrying about inflation and turn its attention to preventing interest rates from going into recession-inducing territory.
If the Federal Reserve truly sees serious challenges to its claims of strong growth in 2005, that would put the central bank in a very difficult position: it set out on the current series of measured, deliberate interest rate increases precisely because it saw signs that inflation was beginning to settle into the economy, despite its claims that no such signs were evident. However, as it increases interest rates, private consumers will cut back on credit-based purchases, and businesses will cut back on borrowing for maintenance and expansion. For a strong advocate of price stability to represent that the Fed now should turn away from the inflation fight indicates that other Fed bank presidents and Governors believe similarly that the economy is in serious need of a reprieve from the expectation of higher and higher interest rates.
Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve, through its Federal Open Market Committee, can do only so much to control the interest rate environment. If market conditions are pushing interest rates up that the Fed doesn't directly control, then the Federal Reserve can do only so much and only for so long to allow the rates it does control—primarily the inter-bank lending rate called the "federal funds rate"—to diverge from the market-controlled rates, such as those on corporate bonds, conventional mortgages, and commercial paper.
With the single most significant factor on interest rates being the large federal budget deficits, there is good reason to believe that the overall trend in interest rates, whatever the Federal Reserve might want to do to its rates to help the economy, is upward. This becomes a virtual certainty given that the Bush Administration is planning to embark on a plan to borrow "trillions and trillions" of dollars, in the words of United States Vice President Dick Cheney, to the end of privatizing the Social Security system.
In market news, bond prices rose on Guynn's statements, pushing yields on Treasurys down across the board, as investors saw a coming reprieve in the rising interest rate environment. Stocks, on the other hand, took a round beating today, with all of the major indices falling strongly because of the implied message from Guynn that the economy's health might not be as robust in 2005 as the Fed and the White House had for months been claiming it would be. Today's down draft on stock prices gives further evidence that the equities markets are now stuck in a "trading range" scenario, moving neither up nor down in any concerted, long-term fashion. The consequences of this trading range pattern are troubling for long-term investors in equity-based securities, since portfolios of stocks based on broad indices are earning no significantly positive rates of return as long as the stocks continue to bounce around without any discernible upward trend.
This situation is becoming a long-term, definable legacy of the current Administration, materially challenging any claim that the Bush Administration has created a business environment that fosters prosperity for investors, particularly average investors trying to grow a nest egg for large purchases or for retirement.
Published 2/10/2005 01:05:55 AM
<< 34 Comments Total
Regarding your last observation. I know it's a measured one coming from a professional.
May I be indulged in a bit of venting of frustration (without it being taken badly, since it's sarcastic, but not directed maliciously at anyone here?)
GEE -- YA THINK????
- oddjob
(Thank you so much! That feels much better!)
- oddjob
Good evening, OddJob. You took the words right out of my mouth.
Sadly, an Administration that has veritably wrecked the long-term health of the society and the economy has never been castigated for its incompetence.
However, now the ringer in the White House press corps is getting a little bit of media attention. I do hope you all recall that I told you about a scandal that would rock the Administration.
Okay, here's a little bit of juice. How many of the bloggers over on AMERICAblog and DailyKos really, really believe that the other reporters there in those press briefings and news conferences didn't know exactly who and what Gannon was?
I am more than a little annoyed that some folks believe that somehow the press is going to shoot its own self in the hoof by reporting what the reporters knew all along.
Criminey.
The real scandal breaks, as I pointed out on the previous thread, when someone puts the two-and-two together of Novak and Gannon, together with the strangely untouched questions of why Novak and Gannon have been treated with kid gloves while other reporters have been beaten over the head, almost literally, by a Special Prosecutor who was touted as being a real tough SOB.
As a little hint, here's a question to answer: who really shepherded the appointment of this Special Prosecutor, and why did Ashcroft back down so suddenly and magnanimously when the appointment of outside counsel became inevitable?
Under what conditions would you let go of a situation that might get really ugly if you didn't have your hands on it?
Again, put two and two together, and you'll see why this is about a whole lot more than one Republican weirdo. It's also why this isn't going to be a real scandal for many months, since everyone's chasing the sleaze angle because it's so much fun.
Oh, well.
The Blogosphere is having some fun, tonight; and the world is poorer for losing one entrepreneurial Republican.
The Dark Wraith blogs onward.
Unfortunately, I can't even begin to respond to your leading questions because I wasn't paying close enough attention at that time, and so I don't remember the people you're hinting about. I wasn't paying close enough attention to remember that story line. I would imagine Josh Marshall would know because I disinctly remember him following it so exhaustively I couldn't make myself read his blog entries about the minutiae of who said and wrote what about purported shipments of Nigeran yellow cake uranium.
In this case I'm guilty of being too much like Joe Sixpack to follow where you're pointing. All I know is if she was indeed a legit spook (& I remember reading that there were those who felt that wasn't so) and her cover was blown by Novak, someone's almost certainly guilty of treason!
- oddjob
Under what conditions would you let go of a situation that might get really ugly if you didn't have your hands on it?There are only two general types of times when I would do this that I can think of:
when, down the road, I can see clearly enough to realize that even though the situation may get uglier than it otherwise would, the end result will ultimately be better for me,
or
when I realize that things are going to be really ugly no matter what and having my hand on things will be more painful for me than otherwise.
(I guess in terms of game theoy, such as I who have never formally studied it understand it, it would be those times when ulimately the outcome is better, thus a "win", even though it creates a worse experience, or when the outcome for me is bad both ways, probably what would be called a "loss", but having my hand on circumstances makes the whole game experience for me less worthwhile. I don't know the proper game theory terms for these scenarios, but there the only two I can think of.)
The second one is probably essentially the same as what's known as "having a tiger by the tail".
- oddjob
Oh, but there's a third scenario, my good man.
Hint: How did Al Capone avoid prosecution and, more importantly, conviction for so long; and what did Elliot Ness need to know to obtain a conviction in the case against him once it was at trial? (The critical key had nothing to do with admissible evidence.)
The Dark Wraith loves a good pulp fiction novel... except that it wasn't fiction then, and it ain't fiction, now.
And now that the Super Bowl is over, this morning, we have this video link on the main CNN Website:
How would U.S. troops match up in a war with Iran?Is it just me, or is that the sound of the propaganda engine ratcheting up for another little skirmish?
The Dark Wraith goes to brew some coffee.
[I really need to think about getting into this propaganda business; gawd! but it looks profitable.]
When did CNN become FOX-lite? When Ted Turner left? I missed that somehow (but then I don't have a tv at home so that could have had something to do with it).
- oddjob
Hey, I'm the one who voted for war with Iran in the poll.
With that being said, I guess the only thing left is, sadly, "I told ya so."
lowlyredstater
Good morning, Lowly Red Stater.
Not so fast. There's a drumbeat out of Washington this morning about North Korea, too. It looks like Fox will handle the Korean Peninsula Bowl, while its sister station, CNN, gets people whipped up for the Persian Bowl.
The Dark Wraith pops the popcorn.
And that reminds me, Lowly Red Stater: you're of draft age, aren't you?
I suppose that means you'll be sending me digital pictures for The Dark Wraith Forums from someplace really grim. Not to worry. I shall publish the ones that are of high quality. (Good pictures are a big draw on the Internet, y'know.)
No video, though. Too much bandwidth drain.
The Dark Wraith makes the blog picture friendly.
What a busy day... and so it begins the Rooster year? Where, when and how will he sing? NK is already singing nukes around (even if it is just for attention or other profits, like: food), Iran is on the way there, the US wants a strong Europe to negociate with Iran, but Europe wants again to sell weapons to China and it seems is more interested in that at the moment or in the US... is this a great soap opera or what? All this goes around while Charles and Camilla are finally ending their affair (off topic, maybe a comic relief...) and Israel and Palestine are on their honeymoon, God knows until when. So... what's next? At least the unemployment apparently droped in the US... but with the kind of reporters going around there, and the kind of media control rising and establishing itself one always can wonder...
By the way, am I the only one to think that sometimes Americablog, and other blogs, looses itself a litle, or a lot, with somethings and not particularly with more important and relevant points related?
P.S.- So, how will the decision take place? Bushie is going to toss a coin in the air and then decide if NK or Iran? Still so sure Bushie won't start another war mess DW?
When I said: "but Europe wants again to sell weapons to China and it seems is more interested in that at the moment or in the US..." I meant: "but Europe wants again to sell weapons to China and it seems is more interested in that at the moment than in anything related with the US..." (I don't think how much Rice was just a fait divers ...)
Persian Bowl? Wait, I swear, if you make a t-shirt with a Persian Bowl logo and everything, and even charged an insane amount, I'd buy that for sure.
Oh well, thanks for the doom and gloom forecast.
My take:
The "There will be no draft" pre-election plea from Bush and fellow GOP companions is enough to make me question the possibility of a draft. For all their lies/white lies/deceit, this one would be such a blunt lie...I just think this issue would awake a sleeping giant in the American people, especially the youth. But at this point, you can't predict the unpredictable (or rather, unpredictably stupid).
Assume there is a draft, what are my chances? By the time it would roll around I'd be a first semester senior, already prepared to go to grad school, and possibly even married. I've always been told the draft would target those without higher education, but that was then, and I, of course, have no idea how it would go down. I've always looked at going into ROTC like my brother, but by then my age might limit my option to go there.
lowlyredstater
Higher education worked as an option for people like Phil Graham and also for the VP. I don't know if they'd include that exemption now or not. It caused flack back then if I'm not mistaken.
- oddjob
Good afternoon, Joseph. I am glad you are still around. I know you said that you are still visiting The Dark Wraith Forums, even if you are not actively commenting; but still, a Grandma Wraith does worry.
Now, a couple of points. Several days ago, I predicted that the United States will be in a war, probably sooner rather than later, and this war will debilitate us terribly.
I see now a drumbeat as the mainstream media is again serving as the propaganda outlet for the Administration. After all of the mea culpa and hand-wringing from the last round, the media is going right back into its unquestioning, unremarkable mode of softening up the crowd for yet another military engagement that is too important to forego.
Gawd.
At least we'll get some good snapshops from the front line, provided Lowly Red Stater is up to the task.
Now, on to another point. Although I am not yet ready for the evolutionary phase of the Blogosphere where open war breaks out among the progressive sites, I will tell you that The Dark Wraith Forums is quite deliberately designed and hosted as an alternative to AMERICAblog. You are not the first who has commented on the frenetic and highly volatile nature of both the articles and the comments on threads over there.
I do have respect for John Aravosis, and that is not mutual. The successful bloggers tend to be highly ego-centric individuals. It is not a prerequisite for success, but it is quite useful in the short run.
That having been said, without active participation of the host of the blog in its threads, the range of activity will swing wildly, and it will drive the best commentators away because their important voices get wiped out in the cacaphony, even when they are recognized as making strong and meaningful contributions.
I know whereof I speak in this matter. Before the Blogosphere arose, I used commenting forums as my primary means of attack as a business consultant. When shareholders would gather on a particular site that allowed comments about public companies to be posted, companies would bring me on board in part to go to those sites and hammer the people into the ground with post after post. I used literate, often derisive, humor as my main tool.
In the end, though, I turned on one of my clients when I realized that I was abetting an operation that was really hurting small investors. One man's death was directly attributable, at least in part, to his loss of his entire life's savings. Other, older people has been talked out of their retirement money, and they lost everything, as well.
That was the end of being a spokesperson for that kind of client. I turned on them; and in the end, I was nearly destroyed by what ended up being some really tough cookies. (It seems that folks get mighty fierce when millions of dollars are at stake. Go figure.)
And all of that bizarreness came because of the power of the Internet to allow freely flowing, unrelenting, uncontrolled, unrepentent abandon in the manner and nature of the speech.
In my judgment, there will be a shake-out in the Blogosphere in a few years. Although we are phenomenally low-cost operations, there is still an opportunity cost to this work. And there has yet to emerge a meaningful way of ensuring a revenue stream consistent with the direct and opportunity costs. In the next couple of years, the survivors will be the ones that can adapt to a maturing audience base: right now, I'm seeing over on AMERICAblog the kind of giddy excitement and lack of focus that was prevalent on those pre-blog, unmoderated comment forums of five years ago. Most of those forums are now gone. The ones that remain have a much more focused, intelligent, meaningful base of participants, somewhat like what you see here on The Dark Wraith Forums.
The trick is to keep the blog from going wild, but also not cause it to become some boring site for elderly Presbyterians, either. Truth be told, I fear that I have been erring somewhat to the side of the latter; but my fear of the former prevents me from becoming too experimental too often.
Thank God some of the commentators here can't help but bring in some spice every now and then. I should think I would turn into one of those elderly Presbyterians if it weren't for the occasional goading to snap out of the fuddy-duddy behavior.
In subsequent comments in the future, I shall have more to say about the road ahead for the Blogosphere. For now, though, I should lay off and allow the Blogospherians to enjoy the day.
After all, the kids have just made their very first kill.
The Dark Wraith heads off to class, now.
The intensity of emotion expressed on americablog is in no small part an expression of its primary host. I think if Chris in Paris were the primary host the feel of the blog would be significantly different than it is.
John is nothing if not passionate in his opinions, no?
- oddjob
There is also a size issue that can drive people away. I almost never post on Atrios because of the volume of comments he gets already. What useful info. or insight can you add to a discussion thread that already has over 500 entries in it???
- oddjob
Several days ago, I predicted that the United States will be in a war, probably sooner rather than later, and this war will debilitate us terribly.
And sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words...
Mr. Goat, I've forwarded that to several friends & family members!
- oddjob
Hi DW,
yes I am around but I tend to be quiet, especially when some of the questions discussed are American Internal Affairs. I don't know why but for some time I tend to get unconfortable discussing or commenting them. I'm not American and I'm not living there, so...
About the blogosphere and about my comment, my idea, althought I have nothing against americablog, on the contrary, is related to what OddJob said and also seems to perceive. Much passion and sometimes very focused (too much)... it makes me sense some sort of "alienation" or "aleanating" (sorry, can't really translate it into words).
Now, about the war... I really think the US are going to harvest the main result of 4 years of Bushie... In another reality (it seems very far away) you would expect that when the cat coughed the litle mice would hide and stay quiet, but guess what... this time the mice are all around making the cat even worse than he already is. I was thinking: what is the US nowadays, and what could we see from Rice's visit to Europe? The US is, or at least perceived, as the nation with the dummest and stupidiest presidency and administration ever, the country about to go bankrupt (if he isn't already there) and the country with it's military stretched to the limit... talking only about these three facts what kind of respect or what kind of real power has a country like this? It makes me wonder... A crazy idea came to my mind, and I really hope I'm totally wrong and crazy, but I think that the danger of a nuclear bomb being defused comes at this moment mainly from the US as a last resort to try and make the world tremble at his feet (but that will really be just a illusion in the US minds).
Ok, time to stop being delusional...
Joseph, regarding your not being American and not living here, let me say I value your opinions about "us" at least as much if not more than about 60 million of my fellow Americans, that being the number that supposedly voted for Bush. Further, some of my main sources of information are the Sydney Morning Herald, The Asia Times, and the Guardian and Independent newspapers of Britain.
Good evening, Peter of Lone Tree.
I share your interest in Joseph's perspective. I am grateful to have European and Canadian regulars here on The Dark Wraith Forums, although I haven't seen hide nor hair of Lorri T. of late.
I do wish I could have kept track of the fellow from Nigeria who was communicating with me over on AMERICAblog.
It is also good that we have a nice geographical span from the United States, here, too. OddJob and Cam are both more urban, while some others are more Midwest and Southern.
I did want to share with all of you that I have finally gotten around to inviting a couple of people from Texas to join The Dark Wraith Forums. Now that they are trolling around here, trying to decide how and whether to start commenting, I should introduce all of you to them.
Thin Man Smoking is my old friend and co-consultant. He is one of the most irrascible, opinionated, hard-nosed, tough-talking, don't-mess-with-me SOBs some of you will ever meet; and he's an attorney. We had a couple of adventures together that could make for a decent made-for-TV movie... but I'm not entirely sure viewers would believe that they were not entirely fiction. I suppose I should mention that he is almost shockingly progressive. I consider him to be similar in political philosphy to me in many ways.
Kat's Meow is his significant other, a Texas woman with a perfect blend of fire and gentility, every bit the match of any Texas good ol' boy who might cross her path.
Now, put those two together with Joseph, OddJob, Mr. Goat, Wise Guy, Lowly Red Stater, Peter of Lone Tree, Cam, Lorri (wherever she and Cam are), Shakepeare's Sister, Just Me, isonomiac, and a couple of others, and this has to be about the best blog on the Web.
At least, that's what I think, anyway.
The Dark Wraith brews a pot of coffee for the night's blog run.
Good evening, OddJob.
I wholeheartedly agree with you about those blogs where threads run hundreds and hundreds of comments long. The comments on both Atrios and DailyKos are virtually beyond penetration, now. And let me mince no words in stating that it's just poor blog management that lets that happen.
Ideally, a thread should be no more than 30 to 40 comments in length. The length of individual comments isn't too important: even if you have some commenters who go on insufferably without saying much of anything, regulars will figure out who these people are pretty quickly and merely scan or ignore their posts. (Gladly, I can't think of a single incident here, though, where a commentator has become an insufferable bore... except perhaps for me.)
Thread management entails keeping an eye on three factors: how many commentators are active, how many posts are put up per day, and how many days a post is active before it goes to sunset. If too many posts are put up per day for the number of participants, then the threads won't be active enough to create a critical mass of discussion. If too many posters are active for the number of posts, threads will get clogged beyond readability. If sunsetting is done too soon, this will happen, too. If sunsetting is done too slowly, you'll have lots of dead threads that have the potential to get a new comment that no one will notice.
The bottom line is this: Blogging is as much a matter of management as any other human endeavor. Put another way, you could say it as such:
Blogging ain't for wimps.
That sort of makes it sound butch, doesn't it? Maybe I should put that on one of the T-shirts in my e-store.
The Dark Wraith goes out to see if the coffee is ready.
That having been said, without active participation of the host of the blog in its threads, the range of activity will swing wildly...
Ah, the old too many sous-chefs in the kitchen in combination with the when the cat's away the mice play allegory in short form.
The difference here is that you can still learn something from the various posts, whether or not you choose to post in return. In part due to the size/number of posts/threads, but largely as you say, to the presence of the host (usually with a thought provoking thread or rejoinder).
Americablog has become more of a graffiti blog, rather than a venure for the exchange of ideas. I lurk, and still post there occasionally (under a different pseudonym of course), but nine out of ten times it is like yelling in a vacuum. A virtual shit storm today with Gannon, and hardly a peep about some things much, much more ominous. Oh well, his blog and his priorities.
Good evening, Mr. Goat.
That term you used, graffiti blog, is stunningly accurate. I have not seen it used before, but I am going to now appropriate it as one of the major categories in the taxonomy of blogs I am developing. It is just perfect.
I hope you're the one who invented it. I just hate plagiarizing from strangers.
And by the way, I noted earlier that I didn't think the time was right for the war of ideologically similar blogs to begin the evolutionary shake-out, but I might have been wrong about that.
It's just that I get sentimental sometimes about the Neanderthal neighbors in that old cave across the valley.
The Dark Wraith hones the post-Clovis spearpoins.
[Ye GODS! Here the pre-hominids come! And they're running on their hind legs, and they're thumping their chests. Quickly! Someone get the bar soap!]
I've never heard the term before that I'm aware of, and it just kinda happened as I wrote it.
Glad I can give you something useful once in a while, rather than the usual smart-ass comment.
Now about your proposition of Spam for royalties....
I have found the whole "gannon-gate" issue interesting...but it does seem to be the end-all and be-all right now, and right now it's like monkeys on a playground.
I also would agree about the atmosphere...but I will also admit that I tend to get a tad upset (*snort* TAD?!), and so I enjoy letting it fly sometimes...but the flame wars are stOOpid in my opinion...
As for other people not from the USofA posting about "our" country...I LOVE it! I really enjoy listening to voices of reason, and those outside our borders seem to have the whole situation dead-on. I have found this to be true over and over again...so, screw those who don't like it, and keep on posting! *S*
Iran, Iran...remember the Taliban fighters going after our TANKS riding horses and dirt bikes? Remeber thinking how crazy they must be to even try something like that? That is nothing compared to what the Iranians will do. During their last war, they sent out suicide runners (best term I could think of off the top of my head) by the hundreds to run across mine fields so they could detonate and make it safe for those behind. Insurgents? We have no idea how many will hop on board with this situation...it will pale next to Iraq's.
Good afternoon, Just Me, and welcome to the "official" side of the Blogosphere.
Those Iranian attacks are called "human wave" assaults, and the number of participants was not in the hundreds; it was in the thousands.
The Iraqis—being very much Westernized in their way of seeing things—were utterly appalled by this fearsome way of war in the same way that the British were utterly stunned when they were its victims. (Go rent the old movie Zulu!, and you'll get a taste of what it was like.)
If we want to be shocked by the Iraqis' unspeakably barbaric use of poison gases against Kurds, we shall be get really fussy when we see several thousand teenagers coming roaring through our battle line mine fields to wipe out our first line of defense so Iranian regular army, then Revolutionary Guardsmen, can plow down upon us.
Don't worry, though. We'll win all of those horrible battles that are to come.
But that, of course, will come at the expense of losing the war.
But that's okay, too, because we'll say we won.
The Dark Wraith blogs forward into the evening.
Just like it's ok for us to torture whenever we decide it's appropriate or necessary.
After all, everyone knows we're always the good guys.
We can't ever do anything evil because everyone knows we're always the good guys.
Good guys always do only good, even when what they do would only be classified as evil by any non-partisan ethicist.
That doesn't matter, because this is America and we're always the good guys.
Isn't it wonderful to live in the land of the free and the home of the brave, along with all of the other good guys?
- oddjob
Speaking of ethicists, I recall tests in school that would gauge something curiously other than information obtained and processed by the students.
For example, in one assignment the student is required to answer questions, usually in multiple choice in which "none of the above" is usually not an option: Also, and this is the important key, the student cannot glean from past knowledge, if any, but must derive his answers from the introductory paragraph. Hang on...
Many here probably remember "True and False" tests. But, then again, there is often an introductory paragraph that preconditions the student's mind what he should be drawing his conclusions from.
To make matters worse and much more complicated, another crossbreed has been born, the "Fact and Opinion" tests. So here we have an introductory paragraph that supposes not only what is true and what is false, but does not give enough information to rightfully declare what could be an "opinion." A student may have prior knowledge of a subject, but that is inadmissible as "fact" and is denigrated as merely an "opinion."
Throw in "situational ethics" and you have a potent formula for disaster in which students are put on the spot in asking them under what circumstances it would be okay to lie, and such nonsense.
You know, it's kind of like those Nielson ratings. Do you think they're genuinely concerned about what we watch on tv? I think they're really spying on our intellectual habits and leanings, if you want my "opinion."
wiseguy
I think there was a point in there somewhere. Something about neoconservatives taking previously liberal ideas and using it to pound themselves in the dust. (I -think- the schools were liberal, at least that's what my church told me. I'm so confused.)
wiseguy
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