Sunday, February 20, 2005

Analysis:
In the Winter of This Night

Great and awful tragedies often begin with endings. Whether or not those endings are real is not important. People—the victims of a new sadness—must forget that they are survivors of something that came before, something perhaps wickéd, that they endured.

They may be told that they are heroes for having lived through a fearful night, but that is mere platitude to steel them for their next journey, inevitably worse as tragedies are in their progress.

The Bush Administration has now called home the American ambassador to Syria. This is not a pretext for war against that country; it is, instead, as much as anything else a notice to the people of the United States that a situation of crisis is building once again in the Middle East, and the Americans must and will take the lead in resolving the looming threat. Syria poses no danger to the United States, but it does afford the neo-conservatives a means by which a message can be conveyed to Iran.

We are on the brink, once again, of war. This time, however, the enemy will not be a country evicerated by years of debilitating sanctions. This time, the enemy will not be a nation with a Westernized military the vast majority of which stood down for us as we staged a violent and epic play for embedded reporters and enraptured television viewers. This time, the enemy will fight; and the battlefields will be slaughterhouses not only for Iranian soldiers, but for American soldiers, as well.

And this time, the cities of our enemy may not be the only places that become the burial grounds of tens of thousands of innocent non-combatants.

Iran is a country about to become a nuclear state. Anyone who believes otherwise is a fool. Iran with nuclear weapons is no counterbalance to the nuclear state of Israel; it is, rather, the partner for a gruesome dance of death traced across the blood-strewn floor of a new century. Iran as a nuclear state is no longer merely a meddling, regional menace; it is a global threat to Western culture.

Now, for those who find the idea of "Western culture" repugnant, the alternative offered by Iran and nations like it should transcend even the most terrifying visions of a world oppressed by the grotesqueness of what America and the Europeans have done throughout history.

Iran is a theocracy; and just like those in the United States who militate for rule derived from holy texts, the rulers of Iran have no use for liberal society based upon tolerance and progressive enlightenment through rational, scientific debate unchained by reference to gods seen in a tribal world thousands of years before. The words upon which religious fundamentalists derive their ambition are written upon the same scroll of meanness, whether they be read with cruel eyes in the Conditional Code, in the Sharia, or in the Book of Revelations.

The United States has come once again to a place without options, and it has found its way here by the inattention that has hallmarked the Bush Administration. The unspeakable savagery visited upon the United States on September 11, 2001, was not the "fault" of the criminals who perpetrated that horror: they acted with deliberation, and they achieved their goal. The fault lies squarely and forever with the Bush Administration, which by its incompetence allowed the hatred of brutes to fester, flourish, and finally come to genocidal fruition.

The world is a good home to madmen. It is the duty—the sacred, unrelenting, untransferable duty—of America's leaders to protect the soil and lives of its people. The Bush Administration failed to do that. There is no amount of bravado, platitudes, expressions of sympathy, and war after the fact that can quiet that guilt. It stands forever.

America is backed to the wall, once again. A world that relied upon us for far too long now comes to bear upon Iran far too late, and America will strike unless the small and violent state of Israel does so first. But should Israel once again stop a nuclear state from emerging from the womb of modernity's ugly belly, as it did before in destroying the Osirak reactor in Iraq in 1981, we shall be so much more beholden to a nuclear state that makes a farce of U.S. fanfare about non-proliferation.

The Bush Administration had more than four years to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. The Bush Administration had more than four years to shepherd, both openly and covertly, that country's moderates to permanent dominance in their halls of political power. The Bush Administration had more than four years to shut down the global traffic in components for nuclear weapons and precursors to the fuel of Hell's weapons.

The Bush Administration had more than four years to build a house that would keep America safe and at peace in a world of madmen.

That house was never built. And now, the bitter-hot winds of war are coming. And we are have no choice but to walk through the maelstrom to the other side, where the next tragedy of our leaders' failures will surely begin.




The Dark Wraith has spoken.

<< 31 Comments Total
 Joseph blogged...

I think that this time the US will have (or would have) to be very carefull with what they do. The world is not really in favour of the US right now, and concerning Iran, for example Russia one of these days backed up them concerning their nuclear program... Besides there are more problems elsewhere and NK (even if they are lunatic and just crying like mad men) is now talking about Japan and making excuses and threats for a possible attack to them, dragging along the US. I think the Bush Administration in its somewhat fantasy to do I don't know what really created a problem: denouncing what was maybe a "would be" "Evil Axis", they in fact really created it and, even worse, may make it (and maybe others) really act in block against the US, and the loser in the end will really be the US and nonother. At least this is my perspective... the US in the midle of all this are the ones to blame for all and the ones to blame to what may fall upon them and also inocents...

Mon Feb 21, 12:42:15 AM EST  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Joseph.

I certainly hope there is some way by which the world can stop the United States from taking this to an end-game scenario, but the prospects do not look good to me, as they stand right now.

You're point about the "Axis of Evil" is well taken. By declaring the existence of such, in a very real sense, we backed countries into a position where they consolidated alliances into something considerably more like an "axis" than it had been before. And as I point out in the article, above, by our lack of resolve, competence, and perseverence, we allowed what developing alliances as there were to become far more dangerous than they otherwise would have been had we acted sooner and more wisely.

At this stage of the game, we have very few options; and quite honestly, I predict that, if push comes to shove, the Russians will back down and go home, rather than stand shoulder to shoulder with their Persian customers.

At least, if I were in Russia's position, I would growl quite a bit, but I would know in the end that the worst person to engage in a fight is a fellow who's as crazy as a loon.

It's just not worth the aggravation of trying to stop someone who doesn't seem to feel pain and—far worse—doesn't seem to learn from it.


The Dark Wraith shudders.

Mon Feb 21, 01:03:45 AM EST  
 Joseph blogged...

On the other hand if Bush really wants to make peace with Europe (but in many ways he is already missing the target) he will have to play a diferent game, and not the looney one, and especially with the UK because I think Blair won't take it being the Bushie pet much longer... and I think we are still to see Europe's real power, that I think is far bigger than we are intended to see, and also we have to consider China in all these equations. About Russia... I think it is becoming a dangerous wild card and big and not so pleasant surprises may come from it...

Mon Feb 21, 03:55:11 AM EST  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good morning, Joseph.

I agree wholeheartedly with you about Russia. We were all dancing about with such glee when the Evil Empire finally came apart, but now we must deal with a degenerative, mafia-style nightmare that has a miserable but large standing army and an extraordinary stockpile of nuclear weapons. If you have been following the thread for "The Valerie Plame Scandal, Part I," below, you will see that I also concern myself with delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons; and Russia is second to none in variety of that critical component of being a true nuclear threat.

Insofar as Europe is concerned, you know me as a big believer in the emergent power of the European Union as an economic behemoth on the world stage of the 21st Century. As I have said before, I do not believe that Europe yet poses a military counterbalance to the United States and will not until the second decade of this century. That is not to say that we will be able to roll over Europe for another ten years: I see a period, beginning perhaps sooner rather than later, of escalating but downplayed confrontations with a growing hint of sabre rattling between Europe and the United States. Eventually, there will be something that could be described objectively as a minor skirmish, and this will disabuse both sides from going down that path much further; but it won't end Europe's determination to become an effective deterrent to both the United States and to China.

And as far as China goes, it will become more and more aggressive in its interaction with the world, and it is very likely at some point to become provocative with repect to Taiwan. Should China's bullying there be successful, the stage will be set for more political/military gamesmanship: military intimidation of small countries in the region and increasingly overt and covert pressure on Indonesia and Japan. I honestly believe that, although China will try to be influential in the Middle East, its effectiveness there will be limited to only a few countries, among them, unfortunately, Iran.

All in all, Joseph, it looks like an exciting century ahead.

I suspect, though, that the world will not particularly enjoy this amusement park of a century.



The Dark Wraith keeps the lights on and the coffee pot brewing.

Mon Feb 21, 09:10:47 AM EST  
 Joseph blogged...

Well, I said earlier that Bushie was missing the target when making "peace" with Europe, and I think he is doing that again and stepping up the pace.

I see that he has come here to make a "funny", somewhat hostile, address concerning some countries. Especially funny when you consider that it is us that are trying to make a deal with Iran, for example.

As usual I sense that the main interest in this plastic and cosmetic visit is really to push the US agenda. Will we (Europe) buy it?

I am particularly interested to see what will come from the meeting he will have with Putin. That will be funny.

Someone should tell once and for all to the US diplomacy that diplomacy isn't made ignoring ties and partners, only rememembering them when it is of our interest and convenience. And that hostility is not a way of making diplomacy...

In fact the problem with Russia is that Russia is being pushed again to a solitude standing (but also thanks to the whanabe Czar) and there is more hostilization going on than friendly and inclusive steps. That is why the potencial of the "extremist wild card" is growing...

Mon Feb 21, 02:07:46 PM EST  
 Shakespeare's Sister blogged...

Amazing post, DW.

Iran is a country about to become a nuclear state. Anyone who believes otherwise is a fool.The problem is that we seem to be surrounded, led, and otherwise burdened by fools these days.

Mon Feb 21, 02:16:46 PM EST  
 Joseph blogged...

How things can get even worse than before when something was made to try and deal with already a big problem, and how everything can fail in order for the "bad guys" to return even stronger:

Afghanistan situation 'perilous'

Tue Feb 22, 01:36:39 AM EST  
 Joseph blogged...

I don't know why but with this thread I am getting the feeling that I lead it to a dead end... :(

Well, but on the light of this:
Bush: Attack on Iran 'ridiculous' maybe I was being to harsh in some of my considerations in some of the above comments and where I also "forgot" the commonly "arrogance" from any US administration (it's worse with this one) but that in the end can be nothing much...

In light of this news what do you think DW, your poll is still valid? Or is this only something nice to please for the time being Europe? Or will it stand?

Tue Feb 22, 07:04:41 PM EST  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Good evening, Joseph.

Mr. Bush was put in a rather humorous position with regard to the question that led to that response. As the BBC Online had noted previously, Mr. Bush is in Europe on a "charm offensive." When asked if he was going to take America to war against Iran, Mr. Bush had to be fairly charming.

Even if he had wanted to say, "We're going to turn Iran into a parking lot for Al-Arabia Walmart," he couldn't really say that and still be a charming man.

More importantly, if you are a sabre-rattler of a President, you cannot simply rule out military force, either. This is especially true when the most effective alternative, an agreement among developed nations of the world to place a massive embargo on the country, is not in the offing.

Mr. Bush ended his dismissal of military options with the caveat that all options will remain on the table, meaning that he has left himself the out he'll need if war becomes the inevitable endgame.

As bad as the whole thing is, right now, it could be pushed toward a confrontation by other countries that would have an interest in a contained but harsh skirmish between the United States and Iran. And by that, I do not mean only Israel, which might actually prefer to take care of the Iranian nuclear weapons project, itself, rather than leave it to a nation that isn't having what one might call a wildly successful military campaign in Iraq.

No, there are other countries that might be mildly interested in seeing the United States debilitate itself a bit more with a rumble in the Iranian desert; but I shall leave it to you to speculate upon whom that might be and to what specific and strategic end that might go.


The Dark Wraith starts Happy Hour at the Forums hotel.

Tue Feb 22, 07:24:21 PM EST  
 Anonymous blogged...

DW will answer for himself, but as I read it all he said was, "We have no immediate intention of attacking and are not presently drawing up such plans."

Of course, it is a certainty that the outline for just such an attack was drawn up by the Pentagon several administrations ago (no later than Reagan). All they will need to do is get it off the shelf, update it, and add in the details. They may do the updating on a regular basis anyway, just to be prepared in case of an emergency arising on short notice.

It was classic diplomacy -- say one thing on the surface, mean something completely different when the sentences are parsed.

I'm sure the mullahs (as well as all the relevant European diplomats and ministers) know exactly what's being threatened. The shot across the bow was pretty obvious if I could notice it. The part of the statement with the most significance was the last sentence, not the first.

- oddjob

Tue Feb 22, 07:26:03 PM EST  
 Anonymous blogged...

(And why do I hear the sound of a uniquely tonal language in the background as DW leaves others to guess where he thinks those interested parties might be?)

- oddjob

Tue Feb 22, 07:28:45 PM EST  
 Dark Wraith blogged...

Perhaps a funeral dirge?

Or maybe Johnny Cash's Ring of Fire, perhaps.

Yeah, that's it.


The Dark Wraith heads down, down, down to the basement for more ice.
[LORD! but it's hot down here.]

Tue Feb 22, 08:32:53 PM EST  
 Joseph blogged...

Well, I'm glad it seems I wasn't being excessively lunatic as I was fearing.

Still related with international developments I don't know if anyone noticed the moves China is making in Africa, at least due to their need for energy in the form of oil for the most part...

And still about Iraq I'm glad that some good stuff may come of it like this (I just this isn't kept only in theory and I hope the mess in the region don't get big enough to destroy it all once and for all):
Rebirth of a wetland

Wed Feb 23, 12:07:07 AM EST  
 TheCultureGhost blogged...

Though so far removed from the region (and in many other ways), North Korea's negotiating position would be greatly enhanced by an ugly mess in Iran. The political capital of the US once again going to war would enhance North Korea's stance as victim with Japan, China and the remaining "respected" actors in the region.

The EU might reap a diplomatic harvest and an economic one, too, should they allow us to blunder into Iran.

It seems Russia might sit this hand out.

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