Mortgage Applications Drop, Treasury Auction Goes Off Poorly
What seems contradictory at first is that existing home sales reached a record level last month, although new home sales dropped off dramatically. Many economists see the jump in November existing home sales as the "credit rush" that was in full swing as people contemplating a home purchase moved to fulfill their desire and complete their transactions in advance of expected higher mortgage interest rates they would bear if they waited any longer.
In separate but related news, the U.S. Treasury Department's auction of $24 billion in 2-year Treasury Notes received scant attention from the global lenders to the United States. In an auction that was characterized as thinly attended even by traditional purchasers—including foreign central banks—of U.S. debt instruments, the price of the intermediate-term Notes had to ease considerably to attract sufficient buying. As the price of a debt instrument falls, its yield rises, and this round of discounting pushed the yield on the 2-year Treasury Notes to 3.12%, the highest yield at such a sale since mid-2002.
Aside from the certain and undesirable effect that rising U.S. interest rates will have on the demand for credit among home buyers, foreign trading partners are hoping that those same rising U.S. interest rates will slow down or possibly even reverse the slide of the dollar against other major currencies. Because U.S. interest rates are the price of U.S. dollars, as those interest rates rise, other nations hope the dollar will become stronger. That would please other nations like the Europeans and the Japanese, whose foreign currency reserves of greenbacks have lost considerable value with the dollar's weakness. A stronger dollar would also make U.S. exports to those countries become more expensive, thereby reducing the negative impact cheap American imports are having on the economies of Europe and Japan.
Unfortunately, despite the yield rise today at the Treasury auction, the dollar hit another new low at $1.3646 against the euro before recovering slightly to $1.3600. The dollar pressed close to an all-time record against the yen, closing at ¥103.93. Together, these numbers indicate that it will take considerably higher U.S. interest rates before the dollar stops it long-term slide; but those same considerably higher U.S. interest rates will spread their adverse effects domestically far beyond the housing market, likely setting the United States on an inevitable course for a recession next year.
Published 12/29/2004 09:21:48 PM
<< 55 Comments Total
Hrmmmph!
Interesting. Thank you DW for answering my question before I've asked it: what does this mean for international economies. That foreign countries have American investments and also have currency reserves in "American greenbacks" (is this correct?) is a concept that is still getting through my dense skull. don't know much of how the world works past 1900.
So I am going to pose this as a question only to save face if I am wrong: Do you think (as I do), DW, that the government forstalled the festering of this economy for the second of Bush's terms? That is, the White House may have seen this whole thing coming down river, but set up artificial means to keep the economy from imploding before the election? For, how would it look for us to have gone into a deep recession, or for there to have been serious hints of it, in an election year? When Greenspan kept slashing rates a couple years ago, it may have been putting bandaid on a gunshot, not flesh wound. Now, it's time to pay the piper, but Bush is a lame duck.
Good morning. You answered your question quite well.
The Federal Reserve maintained an "easy money" policy throughout most of Bush's first term, pumping excess liquidity into the American economy to keep interest rates at historically low levels. That kept the economy moving forward—as it had when used in other eras—although at no blistering pace.
The part that's neat about what happened this time was that an inordinately large amount of that excess supply of money ended up in the global markets; this was part of those massive trade imbalances.
As I have noted before, when we run a "current account" deficit by importing more than we export, we must run a "capital account" surplus. So, we send the (liquid, current) greenbacks overseas, and the foreign investors return them as capital investment back to America. Hence, what the Feds and the Treasury were doing was to print excess money that would end up in the hands of foreigners, who would then use those dollars as capital investment in the U.S., primarily (but not entirely) to finance massive federal budget deficits. And what the foreigners who had piles of U.S. dollars didn't use to purchase Treasury instruments (i.e., to lend the U.S. government money to continue its profligate tax cuts and global adventurism), the foreigners were using in part to purchase long-term debt of American corporations so those corporations could continue to have the high returns on equity that investors like through leverage rather than through fundamental growth of markets and competitive excellence.
And in the same way that we were importing more goods and services than we were exporting—thereby running those giant current account negatives—we were necessarily losing American jobs, since the imports would be using factors of production elsewhere in the world. That's why we saw American companies moving their production facilities to other countries: overseas they could produce cheaply, using cheap labor and cheap physical capital, then import the final goods and services back to the United States. And this wasn't because of fundamentally "overpriced" American labor; it was purely an artifact of exchange rates!
Beautiful, wasn't it?
Well, it's about over, now. As is the case with most things in life, the game must sooner or later come to an end; but Mr. Bush will pay no price because he is a lame duck. It will be those left in the wake of his policies who will be standing on the playing field to hear the bad news: the game clock has run out.
And we've lost.
The Dark Wraith has blogged.
[And this wasn't because of fundamentally "overpriced" American labor; it was purely an artifact of exchange rates!]
Well, son of a gun!
Now there's something you won't hear about. (The exchange rate theory, that is.) Or is it that I haven't been listening?
You always hear that the cost of American labor is so prohibitive that companies *must* go overseas to enslave, uh, I mean employ a foreign workforce--like it's the working man's fault that he can't now live on $7/hr. Yet, American companies actually make off better (or worse!) than bandits fleeing on foot in broad daylight with sacks full of money and antique silver.
Cheap labor in this sense takes on a whole other meaning: the equivalent of $7/hr per worker in China is really pennies in American money. And who knows if they aren't paying Chinese peasant workers the equivalent of what would be $3.50, thereby saving them literally bucket-loads of money. As an aside, with the current adminstration making corporations less and less accountable, giving them deeper and deeper tax breaks, it is a wonder that they feel the ever increasing urgency to go overseas!
DW, perhaps you are shaking your head at how elementary this all seems, but there you have it: the truth hanging out there in plain sight. The obvious cannot be revealed. I have the pieces, put putting the puzzle together is impossible.
As for the gloomy forecast of the American economy, I am wondering now about that storm on the horizon. I am thinking of two scenarios: one, the government pulls some trick out of hat. I have no idea what. Pet Goat has suggested previously, and I agree, that the heady days of late-90s brought on by the tech boom came to an artificial and induced end. I've always thought this. There is now a resurgence of the IPO. Could IPOs be making a comeback precisely at this time to help buoy an economy in danger of being run aground? Just one uneducated example.
Another scenario: the government does nothing. The reccession comes sometime in the next year or two. The insiders who see it coming get into the lifeboats and paddle for shore. Joe Average, meanwhile, stuck in steerage (distracted because he was watching the Apprentice, vicariously living the lives of those who created the show that mires him in self-loathing and prevents him from action) takes his lumps.
Gee whiz! Cam has also blogged!
And blogged eloquently, at that.
The Dark Wraith builds the blog.
I suppose I should warn everyone about the revisions happening here.
You all might have noticed that, instead of the comments opening as a new page on the blog, you now have drop-down comment sections: when you click on the "Comments" link, the thread expands; click on it again, and the thread collapses. The advantage of this is that everything stays on one page instead of a Comments page for an article opening and reloading everything. The old way was particularly annoying because it meant that the javascripts for the news and stock market tickers had to reload, thereby re-starting the tickers from the beginning. There are a couple of disadvantages to this: a minor one that is barely noticeable is that the blog opens slightly more slowly, now, because it's loading all non-archived articles and all of each article's comments at the very beginning. A slightly more irritating problem is how the return to the blog works after you've submitted a comment. Perhaps it more of an annoyance to me than to anyone else.
All of this, by the way, is an intermediate step toward implementation of Joseph's request that articles display whether or not there are unread comments on a thread. That's the final step in the implementation I am doing today. The only thing I must caution you, my good bloggers, about is that the implementation requires that your browser accept a small cookie that will keep the record of what threads you've visited and how many comments were on that thread the last time you were there. The first time this blog loads for you after I've implemented the cookie, you'll see that all of the threads are listing all of the comments as "new." That is because the cookie has yet to set the numbers for you on each thread. As you expand each thread, the cookie will mark the appropriate data, and you won't see that anomalous result, again.
Brace yourselves, folks. The cookie will come (and, I am hopeful, not crumble) some time this afternoon.
The Dark Wraith takes a deep breath before he does something that could be disastrous.
This is off topic, but I can't find a better place to put the link. DW, this is an article addressing a higher education matter you and others will immediately understand.
- oddjob
Good afternoon, OddJob. I greatly appreciate that link you provided.
You probably recall the ranting I did on AMERICAblog about my recent experiences at a rather well-known Christian college in the Midwest. This is happening in many places, although the big, private liberal arts colleges and the public universities are still pretty well resisting the intimidation from "conservative" college student groups. It has gotten noticeably more difficult, though, especially in the past month or so. Cowardly administrators seem to be hinting that they want more "sensitivity" to "religious values."
I, myself, don't have to worry too much in the public colleges: most of the students can't decide whether I'm some kind of radically conservative liberal or a breed of maverick Republican from the the '70s. Either way, they think I am at all times right on the edge of madness, so they tend to leave me alone.
As for that private little Christian school, everything worked out in the end: I resigned, the administrators are relieved, and the students have had their first taste of Christian controllers who caused something to happen to someone they really, really liked.
Sweet.
The Dark Wraith moves forward.
Good afternoon, once again, OddJob.
I just thought I'd let you know that I sent the link for that article to a whole bunch of my fellow academicians. I figured it would make their holiday vacations so much brighter.
Heh-heh-heh.
The Dark Wraith doesn't cotter to scholars resting on the laurels... or their lounge chairs.
You do sometimes enjoy being the "burn" in others' heartburn, don't you?
- oddjob
I attribute it to bad food, late nights, and WAY too much coffee.
The Dark Wraith passes the Tums around the blog.
[This movement pretends to be about "balancing" liberal with conservative views, but the reality is a lot uglier than that.]
Yikes. Non-tenured profs. will most certainly self-censure. At the end of the sememster, when those god-awful reviews are handed out, those students get their say. They count; universities are for-profit, lest we forget.
It's impossible to mask you're views. If you are teaching a specialized seminar, "Radical American Feminist Literature, 1900-1950" you don't have to worry. You come on strong during that first class--ostensibly you are *just* letting the students know what they can look forward to for the next three months, but you are really hoping to thin the herd, weeding out those who may not really be interested in your topic. Precious few conservatives are going to show up, but a few might, and one may even sign up for kicks. When you start flying off with your radical views, they can't complain. I mean, what did they expect, right?
BUT, if you are teaching "core" classes or classes that shouldn't, on the surface of it, be politically charged--say, an introduction to Victorian Drama--you are dead in the water. For the young and inexperienced in the academy, your way is filled with traps. Your students are waiting for you to betray yourself; indeed, they even lay the traps. I am always shocked that some of the most libertine, unconscionable students are also those who profess to be the most socially and morally conservative.
I don't think any of us believe we should use the classroom to disseminate our personal beliefs, whether they are liberal or conservative. But what's acceptable? It is self-censuring if I am teaching Sir Francis Bacon, but I omit the fact that he was gay. It is also self-censuring if I include Bacon's sexuality, hear some off-hand remark and not address it--for fear of coming off too liberal! (Why talk about Bacon's sexuality at all? Well, why not?!)
It is bad news when the academy seeks to institutionalize censorship--cutting certain kinds of classes and seminars because they are too "liberal." I'm certain this is coming.
Anonymous,
I concur with your observation that the Bush Team kept the economy going full stream in 2004 at any costs, as this was something that I'd been fully anticipating since late 2002. Recall the interview in Esquire with John DiIulio of Bush's Faith Based Initiatives, where he depicts a White House where, "Everything [is] run by the political arm. It's the reign of the Mayberry Machiavellis." DiIulio said that everything was geared to Bush's winning a second term, so rigging the economy accordingly is no surprise.
You have the misfortune of teaching in the "art/culture" end of the "liberal arts". The science end is often a little easier to deal with, but even there one has to approach the teaching of evolution in the right way not to get metaphorically smacked upside the head. When I was an undergrad. and a serious evangelical and thus uncomfortable with evolution I nonetheless had to learn it, and I remember having a professor for one of those basic first year courses who addressed the matter with respect and sensitivity to those who disagreed, but who nevertheless taught it. He was tenured so he could have been a jerk about it, but he wasn't. I've always remembered that.
(In doing that he also made what he taught all the more compelling and difficult to deny!)
For matters such as this, I'm glad I don't teach, even though I've been told by more than one person that I would be a good teacher.
It's telling, and sad, that this is very popular version of Christianity is threatened by knowledge.
- oddjob
You do sometimes enjoy being the "burn" in others' heartburn, don't you?
I attribute it to bad food, late nights, and WAY too much coffee.
Brace yourselves, folks. The cookie will come...
Oh christ! The Wraith has been up swilling caffeine and inventing Spam laced cookies. It hasn't come to this has it?
What I can't understand about the strategy of doing whatever (regardless of its macroeconomic implications) in order to be reelected is that Rove is also on the record as planning for another multi-decade Republican hegemony like the one after the Civil War.
I realize from what DW's posted that there was an outside possibility of their economic ideas working if they played their cards right, but in macroeconomics there are so many factors that you cannot control, making their strategy (if we correctly understand it) SO risky!
WHY would anyone but the worst kind of fool do something so nutty if what you were really aiming for was that kind of dominance???
- oddjob
This also is completely OT, but I highly recommend it! It's a report from Sid Blumenthal about the dumping of the last of Shrub's foreign policy realists. (You have to go through a brief ad to get to the article, but it appears innocuous enough.) It sounds as though Bush family & co. may never be the same again.
I, Claudius redux
- oddjob
OddJob, if I wasn't getting used to what the US are really like in these days I would be KO'ed by that article about too much education... at least around here the theory about too much education is that it gets you overqualified to get a job, and it's a turnoff to the employer who isn't willing to pay a salary in accordance to your education... in consequence people tend to hide they have degrees, masters, or even PhD's. Over there it won't be long until it is said: too much education makes your brain burn in hell... but then you will have a hell of a life without the people with the proper education... so narrow minded people... it seems the future of the US is really very dark...
Actually José it's not quite as bad as that. People with this mindset are hardly new, and this opinion from the end of the Biblical Book of Ecclesiastes supports them in their beliefs:
9 Not only was the Teacher wise, but also he imparted knowledge to the people. He pondered and searched out and set in order many proverbs. 10 The Teacher searched to find just the right words, and what he wrote was upright and true.
11 The words of the wise are like goads, their collected sayings like firmly embedded nails-given by one Shepherd. 12 Be warned, my son, of anything in addition to them. Of making many books there is no end, and much study wearies the body.
13 Now all has been heard;
here is the conclusion of the matter:
Fear God and keep his commandments,
for this is the whole duty of man.
14 For God will bring every deed into judgment,
including every hidden thing,
whether it is good or evil.
- Ecclesiastes 12:9-14 (New International Version)
The text appears to warn against overmuch learning lest it cause you to wander astray from the right path, which is exactly what that student was warning of. I beg to differ with that particular interpretation, but I understand where it comes from (especially having lived in that world myself when I was an undergraduate student).
Oh, the caution you folks receive we receive as well. I would not now get a PhD unless I knew for certain that I wanted to be a researcher, or academic, and nothing else. Getting your doctorate otherwise is a good way to go from job interview to job interview only to be told, "You're overqualified." There are exceptions to this, but I believe it's more true over here than it is not.
- oddjob
Actually, José it's not quite as horrific as it may seem. Americans such as these are hardly new (although they are more prominent than they used to be), and they are supported in their beliefs by their interpretation of the end of the Biblical Book of Ecclesiastes:
9 Not only was the Teacher wise, but also he imparted knowledge to the people. He pondered and searched out and set in order many proverbs. 10 The Teacher searched to find just the right words, and what he wrote was upright and true.
11 The words of the wise are like goads, their collected sayings like firmly embedded nails-given by one Shepherd. 12 Be warned, my son, of anything in addition to them. Of making many books there is no end, and much study wearies the body.
13 Now all has been heard;
here is the conclusion of the matter:
Fear God and keep his commandments,
for this is the whole duty of man.
14 For God will bring every deed into judgment,
including every hidden thing,
whether it is good or evil.
- Ecclesiastes 12:9-14 (New International Version)
The passage appears to warn against overmuch learning, lest you be led astray from the right path. I beg to differ with this interpretation, but I understand it (having been one of them as an undergraduate student helps a lot).
This country has always had a very strong vein of Protestant Christianity in it. Unfortunately the version on prominent display right now is not best we have to offer! I do not expect the political prominence of this strain of thinking to go on indefinitely, but I also don't know when to expect its next demise.
Oh, as to the warning you receive in Portugal. We receive that here as well. I would not now get a PhD unless I knew I wanted to be a researcher or an academic and little else. Getting one otherwise can be an excellent way to go from job interview to job interview only to be repeatedly told, "You're overqualified." There are exceptions to this, but I think it is more true here than it is not.
- oddjob
(Apologies for the double post! It must have been ten minutes for the first one to post and I thought it had been lost!)
[Anonymous blogged...
You have the misfortune of teaching in the "art/culture" end of the "liberal arts". ]
Aye. "Anonymous" was Cam, the mighty Thursday blogger.
Teaching the art/culture end of so-called liberal arts is thorny stuff. I never thought it was much fun. The rewarding stuff is the the stuff you do alone--the reading and sometimes, the writing. I think the academics themselves are changing.
The "old school" academics, the ones I admire, are going the way of the dinosaur. Now, the young ones want a book deal. Tenure is not good enough. Everyone wants to be a celebrity. Furthermore, radical thinkers are being maligned, made to feel like they're crazy. This is done in subtle ways, sometimes not so subtle. You know that you're right, but there's an *establishment* staring at you with blinking eyes, telling you that you ought to go lay down, "you'll feel better."
You wouldn't believe the way scholars are manipulated into some of the nonsense they spew. Just a dumb example: a theoretical orientation of some kind floats onto the academic field. Because it may have been developed by a some hot-shot scholar, and given the stamp of aprroval by many others, everyone who wants to be taken seriously must now clutch onto it like a drowning person with the last piece of driftwood. This has particularly frightening consequences depending on your field. If I am writing about feminism (which I am), but it is now currently being argued and widely established by so-called, and very well respected high theorists that feminism is based in essentialism--probably the biggest academic bugbear there is--then, my work is useless. Now, if I want to be taken seriously--heck, if I want to keep my job in the long term--I'd better either convince a lot of people why essentialism is not so bad (or alternatively, why feminism is not rooted in essentialism) OR I'd better just espouse anti-essentialist arguments and come over into the fold. Which is easier?
And how did I get here, again?
--cam
P.S. The term essentialism, in the way that it is being used here, refers to the idea that a group (women) can be characterized by certain signifiers--"essences" are what I think philosphers call them. Essentialism regarded as bad, bad, bad! And on the face of it, what's not to hate? But I think, too, part of the problem is this second part: the belief that gender (like race) is a social construct. So, uh, if the idea that males and females as differently gendered animals is a construct, how can you even talk about "women" and "men" as catagories? How can feminism even exist?
Well, that's just it. It can't. Oh--and remind me who came up with anti-essentialist arguments again?
Oh gods!
--cam has b(l)ogged down DW's thread!
(sorry, DW!)
euro rises to new record high of 1.3667 against dollar on 12/30/04. Currency traders are making investment plans based upon anticipation of further weakening in dollar.
What's the "headline number"?
- oddjob
Awright, all you patient blogger sorts of people (and goats). You might have noticed some not-so-subtle weirdness happening with the ol' blog today.
Well, I've been trying to perfect a revision of the code architecture, and it wasn't going so well. I made a slight error in the placement of a javascript, and boy-o-boy! did that cause some fun.
I think it's fixed now, but you'll see an odd little thing in the footer of each of the headlines where the number of comments is supposed to be. That will fix itself over time, but you can hasten its repair if you want to do so by simply clicking on the "Comments" link at the bottom of each headline. (Better yet, click on it twice if you have not yet noticed what happens.) That will cause the comment counting cookie to reset to the correct values from the "undefined" values in it right now. The "undefined" values got in the cookie because I put the script a couple of lines away from where I was supposed to, which made the cookie unable to see the number of comments for each post.
Gawd.
The Dark Wraith grovels to the coffee maker to prepare for the evening's blogfest.
[The Dark Wraith grovels to the coffee maker to prepare for the evening's blogfest.]
Great! I like cream and sugar. I could use a big cup of European-style coffee--black and thick as oil. To go with a good spam sandwich, of course. I need something to bring me back; I had to flee Americablog. Madness.
The good news, DW! I read about the strengthening EU this afternoon. I was excited that I knew what it was about. I read the article aloud over dinner, and all I got was a blank stare. I couldn't believe it when I was able to fumble some kind of explaination and some of what it means, gosh darn it!
--cam
Good evening, Cam.
Not to worry. Essentialism is a modern version of Platonic reasoning. And it smells as bad now as it did when Plato and his student Aristotle were blathering on about it more than two millenia ago. Unfortunately, not many Greeks of the time had the guts to tell them they were being just plain silly, and so their silliness got inherited by the Romans, who eventually infected what started out to be a delicious anti-intellectualism within Christianity. Thanks to Augustine, we ended up getting the worst of Greek logic's flawed premises, foisted upon us by the Roman inheritors of their traditions. (At least now, the Fundamentalists don't bother with the basics of logical thought, unlike the early Christian anti-intellectuals like Tertullian, who were quite happy to use logical reasoning to the end of condemning the cold rationality of their Roman persecutors.)
Forgive me. I smell Platonic and Aristotelian elitism far too often in academia, and it annoys me. It gets to the point sometimes where I start mumbling about my fondness for anti-Materialism, and I am left alone.
The Dark Wraith gets down to posting the evening's headline.
Congrats, cam!
DW, your new scheme appears to work just fine, although it was disorienting the first time I refreshed and learned that there was only "1" comment where there had been 23! Once I clicked on "comments" I figured out what was happening.
- oddjob
Good evening, once again, Cam. I didn't catch your last post until I was commenting on your post before that.
'Strong coffee,' you say.
Cool.
And you're beginning to see how the puzzle of the political economy fits together.
Very cool... except for the part where you start to see the monsters that hide in plain sight.
That's not so cool.
The Dark Wraith keeps the lights on.
Essentialism is a modern version of Platonic reasoning. And it smells as bad now as it did when Plato and his student Aristotle were blathering on about it more than two millenia ago.
Ahhhh, that kind of a post is why I am happy I studied a science instead. Not that it's perfect (hardly!!!), but at least you're dealing with a way of examining things which is inductive, and therefore inherently uncertain and thus open to change. Not that you don't ever see egos, blatantly selfish competition, politics, and other assorted forms of objectional human behavior intefering with what's supposed to be clean inquiry, but at least NO ONE is ever able to say, "This is the way it is and this is the way it is ALWAYS going to be."
- oddjob
Good evening, OddJob.
Perhaps it was a decade ago that I was teaching at a state university somewhere in the Midwest when one evening I was walking by the Philosophy Department and stopped to note a giant, colorful sign that had been put up since last I had been in that building. The sign read:
Question AuthorityBeing unobserved at that particular moment, with my bright red grading pen I scrawled in large letters beneath the sign's dictum:
WHY?Although I was never formally accused of the defacing deed, there was plenty of rumor and a rather harsh memo from the department chairman about mutual respect among faculty members.
As I recall, the memo made no mention of inherent ironies and the inevitable exploitation thereof.
The Dark Wraith now teaches elsewhere.
DW
Let's try that again.
DW: That has to be the funniest story I've heard in a while.
--cam
Good afternoon, Cam. Well, yes, in retrospect my less reputable moments have humor; but it is still diminished by the still-fresh memory of feeling like a small, hunted animal grazing nervously on the grassy plains of academia while being slowly circled by institutional predators pretending not to notice me.
You would think that I'd learn from such experiences, but nooooooo!
Last semester, I created an underground newspaper for a regional community college at which I taught. I went through four, 200-copy printings; and again, I hear that I am being hunted. It seems that a couple of my articles irritated someone. (Maybe I shouldn't have poked fun at the 'PowerPoint professors.')
Oh, well. Back to grazing nervously.
The Dark Wraith tries to have a concerned furrow in his brow about frivolity.
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